Fantasy Fastlane: Ryan Blaney is hot at right time; one last Phoenix hoorah for Kevin Harvick

The final NASCAR race weekend of the 2023 season is upon us and there are storylines galore. The youngest Championship 4 grouping of the 10-year format will be highlighted this weekend, meaning another superstar will be born. Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick — a Phoenix master — will conclude his career in the desert. You might see some of these drivers pop up in my fantasy lineup. Here's a reminder, however: fantasy rules follow the playoff format, meaning the Championship 4 drivers can only receive up to 40 points.

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MUST START: 

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-20

If you've got any starts with Larson left, don't let it go to waste. The No. 5 team led nearly two-thirds of the spring race but finished fourth. In Larson's last nine Phoenix starts, he has eight finishes of ninth or better, including his championship win in 2021. It's worth noting that across the three prior championship races held at Phoenix, just six times has a non-championship car scored more than the maximum 40 points that the championship driver can score should they win the race outright.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 11-4

Remember the above statistic: 'Just six times has a driver scored more than 40 points in the championship race at Phoenix?' Yeah, Blaney has accumulated for half of those six, doing it the last three seasons. This year is different, though, as Blaney has caught on fire at the best time and is part of Championship 4 festivities for the first time after winning at Martinsville. The No. 12 team has consecutive runner-up finishes at Phoenix and eight top 10s in the last nine Phoenix races. Seven of those have been better than sixth, and he rides a streak of four straight top fives.

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-5

The common theme this weekend is the Championship 4 drivers are going to be good. They all finished in the top six in the spring race in March at Phoenix. The best of them that day was Byron, who picked up his first win in the Arizona desert. The No. 24 car finished inside the top two in all three stages and has excelled at the track with six top 10s in 11 starts. He's also battle-tested following a rough Martinsville weekend.

MUST START:

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 15-1

It would only be fitting for Harvick to go out on top in his last Cup Series start at Phoenix. You can always count on him to perform at this track, as he rides a 20-race streak of consecutive top 10s at Phoenix, the longest streak for any driver at any particular track in series history. Of those six times a non-championship eligible driver has scored more than 40 points, Harvick has done so twice.

SLEEPER PICK:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 22-1

It probably seems abnormal for Reddick to be considered a sleeper. Had it not been for a miserable race at Martinsville, he could have been on the heels of his first Championship 4 appearance. Instead, he enters Phoenix sixth in the championship standings and has had a fantastic first season with 23XI. The reason he's a sleeper is he has third-place finishes in two of the three Next Gen races at Phoenix.

SLEEPER PICK:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Briscoe's 48 points earned last season is the only other time a non-championship-eligible driver has tallied more than 40 points in the championship race at Phoenix. The No. 14 team is coming off a top-five finish at Martinsville — their first such result since late April at Talladega. Briscoe has three straight top 10s at Phoenix, including his lone Cup win last spring.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet 

Odds: 70-1

Had it not been for tangling with Denny Hamlin on an overtime restart in the spring, Chastain would enter this weekend with three straight top fives at Phoenix. Last year, he finished runner-up in the championship battle after finishing third in the season finale. He is a good value pick this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 90-1

For Wallace fans, I don't advise looking at his Phoenix numbers. The 1-mile oval is among his worst tracks on the schedule, with a best finish of 10th in 11 starts and his average finish is 21.1. Three of his five starts with 23XI have been finishes outside the top 20.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 70-1

Buescher has been even worse at Phoenix than Wallace and he has more starts. In 15 races, he has an average finish of 22.1 and a best finish of 10th. This year has been a remarkable turnaround for RFK, but don't lean on the team this weekend, even though Buescher won at a similar layout in Richmond.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 250-1

Phoenix is the site of Bowman's initial breakthrough performance with Hendrick seven years ago while filling in for Dale Earnhardt Jr. His numbers since then have been brutal, with his only other top 10 coming earlier this season. Even that was only a ninth-place effort, and it's been a largely disappointing season for the No. 48 team after a great first couple of months to begin 2023.

FEATURED MATCHUPS: 

Kyle Larson vs. Ryan Blaney

Larson and Blaney seem like the two favorites going into this weekend. Blaney has never visited Victory Lane, but he has come up clutch multiple times in the playoffs. Larson shows up to the track more times than not with a car that can win. I've used up my uses with the No. 5 car, but he's got a slight advantage this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Christopher Bell vs. William Byron

It wouldn't be surprising if Bell or Byron walked away with the championship. Bell is the only returning Championship 4 driver from 2022 and has executed precisely during the playoffs. Byron gritted out his worst race of the season last weekend, meaning he has nothing to lose. Byron won most recently at Phoenix while Bell is still searching for one, so I'll take the No. 24 car.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Denny Hamlin vs. Joey Logano

What could have been for Hamlin had he not had a power steering failure at Homestead. Logano dominated this race last season from the pole en route to his second championship. The No. 22 Ford also has cracked the top 11 in each of the previous nine Phoenix races. Penske will be solid this weekend, but JGR has had more speed throughout the year. Hamlin will be on the kill, missing out on the championship battle.

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Tyler Reddick vs. Kevin Harvick

Largely, it's been a frustrating year for Harvick. He's been in position to win multiple races during his farewell tour, none closer than Phoenix in the spring. The No. 4 car was out front when a caution flew with a few laps remaining and he dropped to fifth on the restart. Rodney Childers is going to put his best effort forward this week in putting a phenomenal piece underneath Harvick in his final start, and it would surprise nobody if he won his 61st race.

MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin

GARAGE: Joey Logano