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Fantasy Fastlane: Penske power for Las Vegas?
By RJ Kraft | Friday, September 13, 2019
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top playoff and non-playoff plays as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Busch has one victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. In the last three races at this track, he has the fourth-most points -- an average of 40.3 points per race -- and finished third here in the spring. He has four races of 35-plus points on 1.5-milers in the regular season. It's hard to go against the regular-season champ.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Busch has one victory at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. In the last three races at this track, he has the fourth-most points -- an average of 40.3 points per race -- and finished third here in the spring. He has four races of 35-plus points on 1.5-milers in the regular season. It's hard to go against the regular-season champ.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has two Las Vegas wins in the last seven races there, but he also has three finishes of 38th or worse in the same stretch. What is of comfort to fantasy owners is his performance on 1.5-milers this year, with an average of 38.7 points on that track type. And let's not forget he enters the playoffs with three wins in his last seven races this year.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has two Las Vegas wins in the last seven races there, but he also has three finishes of 38th or worse in the same stretch. What is of comfort to fantasy owners is his performance on 1.5-milers this year, with an average of 38.7 points on that track type. And let's not forget he enters the playoffs with three wins in his last seven races this year.
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Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Logano won the spring race here and has the most points over the last three Las Vegas races. He also has a run of seven straight top 10s there with five top fives in that stretch and owns the best average finish among Sunday's field at this track. His runner up at Indianapolis Motor Speedway was his first top five in nine races.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Logano won the spring race here and has the most points over the last three Las Vegas races. He also has a run of seven straight top 10s there with five top fives in that stretch and owns the best average finish among Sunday's field at this track. His runner up at Indianapolis Motor Speedway was his first top five in nine races.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is as good as it gets at Las Vegas when it comes to consistency. He has three wins there -- including last year’s playoff race -- and is riding a stretch of eight straight top-seven finishes at the Nevada track. He finished second here in the spring and has two wins this year on 1.5-milers.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is as good as it gets at Las Vegas when it comes to consistency. He has three wins there -- including last year’s playoff race -- and is riding a stretch of eight straight top-seven finishes at the Nevada track. He finished second here in the spring and has two wins this year on 1.5-milers.
Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
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Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex has one Las Vegas win -- in his championship season of 2017 -- and four top-four finishes in his last six races here. He finished eighth in the spring, and that would be the concern: His 2019 1.5-mile results were good but not great -- and not better than the drivers who have come before him in this content.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex has one Las Vegas win -- in his championship season of 2017 -- and four top-four finishes in his last six races here. He finished eighth in the spring, and that would be the concern: His 2019 1.5-mile results were good but not great -- and not better than the drivers who have come before him in this content.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Kyle Larson (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Here's a contrarian pick if you are looking to avoid the bigger names in an effort to grab points others may not. Larson has three top-three finishes in his last four Las Vegas starts. He also averaged 39.8 points in the five races before Indianapolis and 40.5 points in the last two 1.5-mile races.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Here's a contrarian pick if you are looking to avoid the bigger names in an effort to grab points others may not. Larson has three top-three finishes in his last four Las Vegas starts. He also averaged 39.8 points in the five races before Indianapolis and 40.5 points in the last two 1.5-mile races.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Admittedly, it's weird not seeing "Seven-Time" in the playoffs. With the speed shown in recent weeks that hadn't been there for much of the season -- if he can avoid the bad luck -- he is the best in the non-playoff field.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Admittedly, it's weird not seeing "Seven-Time" in the playoffs. With the speed shown in recent weeks that hadn't been there for much of the season -- if he can avoid the bad luck -- he is the best in the non-playoff field.
Stacy Revere | Getty Images
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Daniel Suarez | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez came up just short of missing the playoffs but should be one of the stronger non-playoff cars. He has one top 10 in four Las Vegas starts, but the real value lies in his four straight top 11s to close out the regular season.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez came up just short of missing the playoffs but should be one of the stronger non-playoff cars. He has one top 10 in four Las Vegas starts, but the real value lies in his four straight top 11s to close out the regular season.
Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
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Paul Menard | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: Menard is stepping away from full-time racing at season's end. Las Vegas is statistically his best track -- two top 10s in his last three starts. The veteran also enters with back-to-back top 10s at Darlington Raceway and Indy.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: Menard is stepping away from full-time racing at season's end. Las Vegas is statistically his best track -- two top 10s in his last three starts. The veteran also enters with back-to-back top 10s at Darlington Raceway and Indy.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Chris Buescher | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 37 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: The format of the fantasy playoff game is tailor-made to play Buescher. He hasn't finished outside the top 18 in the last 15 races, and that includes three top 10s on 1.5-mile tracks. He's a safe bet to score 20-25 points at night’s end.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 37 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: The format of the fantasy playoff game is tailor-made to play Buescher. He hasn't finished outside the top 18 in the last 15 races, and that includes three top 10s on 1.5-mile tracks. He's a safe bet to score 20-25 points at night’s end.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Based on average finish (21.5), Las Vegas is the worst track for the native son. While he did finish fifth here in March, players have a litany of other choices at their disposal for playoff plays in this game.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Based on average finish (21.5), Las Vegas is the worst track for the native son. While he did finish fifth here in March, players have a litany of other choices at their disposal for playoff plays in this game.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Even with a 22nd-place finish at Las Vegas in March, this is one of Blaney's best tracks on average finish (10.7). So why avoid? The lack of top-end production all year on 1.5-milers. He scored more than 35 points just once, and it wasn't here.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Even with a 22nd-place finish at Las Vegas in March, this is one of Blaney's best tracks on average finish (10.7). So why avoid? The lack of top-end production all year on 1.5-milers. He scored more than 35 points just once, and it wasn't here.
Stacy Revere | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse finished sixth in the March race at Las Vegas, so that makes him a tempting non-playoff option. Here’s what doesn't, though: five finishes of 28th or worse in his last seven races, including four such finishes in a row.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse finished sixth in the March race at Las Vegas, so that makes him a tempting non-playoff option. Here’s what doesn't, though: five finishes of 28th or worse in his last seven races, including four such finishes in a row.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Chris Buescher, Jimmie Johnson; Garage: Brad Keselowski. Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 7 p.m. ET (NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 7 p.m. ET (NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
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