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Fantasy Fastlane: JGR primed for a bounce back at Phoenix
By RJ Kraft | Published: March 6, 2020 17
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Penn National Gaming.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: In three races at the reconfigured Phoenix Raceway, Busch has two wins, three top-two finishes, a 1.3 average finish and an average of 53.3 points -- best in the series. Yes, the Toyotas have started slow, but it's hard to go against Busch at a track where he has more points in the last nine races than Harvick.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: In three races at the reconfigured Phoenix Raceway, Busch has two wins, three top-two finishes, a 1.3 average finish and an average of 53.3 points -- best in the series. Yes, the Toyotas have started slow, but it's hard to go against Busch at a track where he has more points in the last nine races than Harvick.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: The man known as the "Cactus King" has NINE wins at Phoenix. Since 2012, Harvick has finished outside the top five at Phoenix just three times in 16 races -- that stretch includes seven of his nine wins. His numbers at the reconfigured track are solid -- 38 points per race. He's too strong here to go against.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: The man known as the "Cactus King" has NINE wins at Phoenix. Since 2012, Harvick has finished outside the top five at Phoenix just three times in 16 races -- that stretch includes seven of his nine wins. His numbers at the reconfigured track are solid -- 38 points per race. He's too strong here to go against.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has two career wins at Phoenix. In last year's races, Hamlin scored the second-most points and a win for an average of 48.5 points. Since 2018, he has scored more points at Phoenix than Harvick. I expect the Joe Gibbs Racing cars to find their footing here with Hamlin and Busch leading the way.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has two career wins at Phoenix. In last year's races, Hamlin scored the second-most points and a win for an average of 48.5 points. Since 2018, he has scored more points at Phoenix than Harvick. I expect the Joe Gibbs Racing cars to find their footing here with Hamlin and Busch leading the way.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney enters this weekend at Phoenix as the driver with the most fantasy points though three races. He also has the most stage points in 2020. The strong points days should continue this weekend at a track that saw YRB score third-place finishes in both races last year with an average of 44 points.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney enters this weekend at Phoenix as the driver with the most fantasy points though three races. He also has the most stage points in 2020. The strong points days should continue this weekend at a track that saw YRB score third-place finishes in both races last year with an average of 44 points.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kyle Larson | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: The reconfigured Phoenix seems to agree with Larson. In three starts, he has finished no worse than sixth and has an average of 41 points -- third best among the field. His 12.7 average finish is fifth best among drivers in Sunday's field and the best among drivers yet to win at the 1-mile track.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: The reconfigured Phoenix seems to agree with Larson. In three starts, he has finished no worse than sixth and has an average of 41 points -- third best among the field. His 12.7 average finish is fifth best among drivers in Sunday's field and the best among drivers yet to win at the 1-mile track.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex may only have four top fives in 28 Phoenix starts, but three of those have come in the past five races there. Since the reconfiguration, he has the fifth-most points. The 2017 champion has had good speed the last two weeks but no top 10s to show for it. It's taking some time for the new crew to jell.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex may only have four top fives in 28 Phoenix starts, but three of those have come in the past five races there. Since the reconfiguration, he has the fifth-most points. The 2017 champion has had good speed the last two weeks but no top 10s to show for it. It's taking some time for the new crew to jell.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: For much of 2019, "Seven-Time" was a fantasy afterthought. That's not the case in 2020, with two top-seven finishes an average point total of 42 in those races. The new short-track package is a wild card -- Phoenix is part of the tracks for that -- but Johnson has four wins at the 1-mile track and some added pep in his step.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: For much of 2019, "Seven-Time" was a fantasy afterthought. That's not the case in 2020, with two top-seven finishes an average point total of 42 in those races. The new short-track package is a wild card -- Phoenix is part of the tracks for that -- but Johnson has four wins at the 1-mile track and some added pep in his step.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is off to a solid start in 2020 with a sixth-place spot in the standings and has the second-most stage points in the series so far. He has struggled lately at Phoenix with no top 10s in his last three races after earning four top 10s in his first five races there. He's a driver I am going to be keeping a close eye on.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is off to a solid start in 2020 with a sixth-place spot in the standings and has the second-most stage points in the series so far. He has struggled lately at Phoenix with no top 10s in his last three races after earning four top 10s in his first five races there. He's a driver I am going to be keeping a close eye on.
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Katelyn Mulcahy | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto only has one top-15 finish at Phoenix in 10 starts, so why consider him? First, he's a hot hand right now with an average of 31 points in the last two races and that level of performance could drop later on in the season. Also, he has a comfort level on the shorter tracks on the circuit as shown in the second half of 2019.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto only has one top-15 finish at Phoenix in 10 starts, so why consider him? First, he's a hot hand right now with an average of 31 points in the last two races and that level of performance could drop later on in the season. Also, he has a comfort level on the shorter tracks on the circuit as shown in the second half of 2019.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 28-1
Fastlane forecast: In four of his last five Phoenix starts, Almirola has finished in the top 10. For context, in 13 previous starts at the track, he had just one top 10. Over that five-race stretch, he has the seventh-most points -- an average of 29.8. A solid eighth-place run at Auto Club Speedway gives this team plenty to build on.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 28-1
Fastlane forecast: In four of his last five Phoenix starts, Almirola has finished in the top 10. For context, in 13 previous starts at the track, he had just one top 10. Over that five-race stretch, he has the seventh-most points -- an average of 29.8. A solid eighth-place run at Auto Club Speedway gives this team plenty to build on.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: In last year's Phoenix races, Bowyer scored two top-11 finishes and averaged 32 points per race -- eighth best in the series. This is more of a hunch play due to the 1-mile and short tracks using the same rules package this year and Bowyer fares well at the short tracks to begin with.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: In last year's Phoenix races, Bowyer scored two top-11 finishes and averaged 32 points per race -- eighth best in the series. This is more of a hunch play due to the 1-mile and short tracks using the same rules package this year and Bowyer fares well at the short tracks to begin with.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Our hunch on Busch at Auto Club paid off, and we like the 2004 champ to carry that momentum forward at Phoenix. This is his third-best track by average finish (13.9) among non-road courses. He has seven top fives and 19 top 10s in 34 starts. In last year's races, he earned the ninth-most points here.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Our hunch on Busch at Auto Club paid off, and we like the 2004 champ to carry that momentum forward at Phoenix. This is his third-best track by average finish (13.9) among non-road courses. He has seven top fives and 19 top 10s in 34 starts. In last year's races, he earned the ninth-most points here.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: In his last eight starts at Phoenix, Keselowski has two top fives but also five finishes of 14th or worse. When I play Keselowski, I expect more out of out him than 14th. The two straight top-seven finishes on recent intermediates have me encouraged for a use at Atlanta Motor Speedway next week, though.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: In his last eight starts at Phoenix, Keselowski has two top fives but also five finishes of 14th or worse. When I play Keselowski, I expect more out of out him than 14th. The two straight top-seven finishes on recent intermediates have me encouraged for a use at Atlanta Motor Speedway next week, though.
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Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman was initially on our stay away list for Auto Club, but a dominating pair of practices changed our tune there. Last weekend's winner told NASCAR.com the team's performance at Phoenix last year was "embarrassing." His three straight finishes outside the top 20 back that up, and with three intermediates up next, he's worth saving for those.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman was initially on our stay away list for Auto Club, but a dominating pair of practices changed our tune there. Last weekend's winner told NASCAR.com the team's performance at Phoenix last year was "embarrassing." His three straight finishes outside the top 20 back that up, and with three intermediates up next, he's worth saving for those.
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Katelyn Mulcahy | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ross Chastain | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: In two starts for the sidelined Ryan Newman, Chastain has an average of 15.5 points and a 22.0 average finish. The thought of plugging in the "Melon Man" is good in theory to save uses, but the results so far have hurt more than helped fantasy owners. It's OK to wait for him to turn in a good result.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: In two starts for the sidelined Ryan Newman, Chastain has an average of 15.5 points and a 22.0 average finish. The thought of plugging in the "Melon Man" is good in theory to save uses, but the results so far have hurt more than helped fantasy owners. It's OK to wait for him to turn in a good result.
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Daniel Shirey | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Aric Almirola, Matt DiBenedetto; Garage: Kevin Harvick.
Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece on this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece on this weekend for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.