Fantasy Fastlane: Pocono is Denny Hamlin’s playground

There is a high probability that this weekend's Cup Series race at Pocono Raceway comes down to a battle of Toyota versus Hendrick Motorsports. Toyota has won eight of the last 11 races at Pocono, while Hendrick has sprinkled in a pair of victories over the past three seasons. With a win last year, Denny Hamlin became the winningest driver in the history of the "Tricky Triangle" and will undoubtedly have one of the track's infamous rocks outside the garage once he retires, which honor some of NASCAR's best drivers.

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MUST START: 

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 4-1

Had it not been for the No. 11 team putting an extra layer of tape in the front fascia of Hamlin's car ahead of the 2022 race, he would be undefeated in the Next Gen car at Pocono. Last year, it was a late run-in with Kyle Larson that propelled Hamlin to the lead, and he never looked back. With a record seven victories at the "Tricky Triangle," Hamlin is the master of Pocono. There's no reason why that shouldn't continue this weekend, putting an end to his five-race slump.

MUST START: 

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-2

Had it not been for Hamlin squeezing Larson into the wall last year on a late restart, Larson was in position to score his first Pocono victory. Instead, the two drivers renewed their ongoing rivalry, which has seen Hamlin get the upper hand more times than not. Larson was relegated to 20th in 2023. Before that, Larson had four straight top-10 efforts at Pocono, a track where Hendrick Motorsports has had plenty of success. 

MUST START: 

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

Pocono isn't a track that comes to the forefront when thinking of venues where Reddick would excel at. He's known for ripping the wall at intermediate tracks and finessing his way around road courses. Yet he is the only driver to have top five finishes in both Next Gen races at Pocono. The No. 45 team is hitting on all cylinders currently, scoring six top-10 finishes over the last seven races, moving up to third in the regular season championship standings. 

MUST START: 

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

Since early May, Truex has been in a skid. He has one top-10 result in the last eight races, which was a ninth-place outing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. At some point, Truex's farewell season must turn around, and Pocono might be the start. The 2017 champion has a pair of victories in the last decade at Pocono and has eight top-10 finishes over the last 12 races.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 35-1

With the regular season winding down rapidly, Wallace needs to get to work if he's going to be part of this year's playoffs, currently 45 points below the elimination line with six races remaining. While Toyota had five of the top-six finishers in last year’s Pocono race, Wallace was the lone outlier in 11th. Before 2023, Wallace had consecutive top 10s at Pocono, including 23XI's first-ever top five finish in 2021. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Todd Gilliland | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 38 Ford

Odds: 130-1

The leap Gilliland has made in his third Cup season has gone under the radar. The No. 38 team hasn't finished outside the top 20 since April, highlighted by a pair of top-10 finishes. His average finishing position is nearly two spots better than his veteran teammate Michael McDowell. Gilliland finished 15th at Pocono last year.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Toyota

Odds: 110-1

Sitting 28th in the championship standings, it's been a trying return to Toyota for Jones. His lone top-10 finish came in the Daytona 500 and his current average finishing position of 22.3 is on pace to be the worst of his full-time career. Pocono provides a glimmer of hope, though. The No. 43 car has consecutive ninth-place finishes at the "Tricky Triangle" and Jones is a frequent top-10 visitor here. He has eight of them in 12 starts. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 22-1

Team Penske has largely struggled at tracks similar to Pocono throughout the 2024 season. And if you look at Logano's recent track record at the "Tricky Triangle," it doesn’t bode well for the No. 22 team this weekend. Thirteen races have passed since Logano's last top five at the track (2016), and in that same span, he has eight finishes of 20th or worse. His race last year was halted due to a Turn 1 wreck, where he had an epic meltdown on the radio. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 25-1

One of the early highlights of Buescher's Cup career came when he outlasted the fog in 2016 to score his first Cup victory at Pocono. Since then, it’s been downhill for Buescher in the Pocono Mountains. He has just one additional top-10 finish (10th in 2020) and an average finish south of 20th. With bubble drivers winning the last two points races, the No. 17 team finds itself squarely on the elimination line.   

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 100-1

The four SHR cars hit everything but the Illinois Lottery last weekend at the Chicago Street Course, including Briscoe, who wrecked while running inside the top five. The No. 14 team has found speed in recent weeks, and he was in contention to win at New Hampshire and Nashville Superspeedway. And despite success at Pocono in the Xfinity Series, it hasn't translated over to Cup for him, with three finishes outside the top 20 in four starts. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Alex Bowman vs. Bubba Wallace

My lineup this weekend is heavily dominated by Toyota drivers, which includes Wallace as my garage pick. Bowman did score a victory at Pocono in 2021 but has consecutive finishes outside the top 10 here. Wallace is the way I'm leaning, but it seems as though the No. 23 team hasn’t gotten out of its own way for the past couple of months, with a pair of top-10 finishes in the last 11 races. Meanwhile, Bowman is tied for the second most top 10s in the series.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Ty Gibbs

Either driver could win this weekend at Pocono, and it wouldn't be a surprise. Pocono is where Gibbs made his Cup debut in 2022 and had a respectable top-20 finish. By using both drivers last weekend at the Chicago Street Course, I’ve got just two starts remaining for the Nos. 45 and 54 cars in the regular season. Reddick has had higher bright spots, so he's in my lineup and it’s believable to think he will outrun Gibbs. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Busch vs. Ryan Blaney

Pocono has been hit-or-miss for Busch over the years, scoring top 10 finishes in half of his 36 starts. Blaney added his name to the Cup Series winner's list at Pocono in 2017, capping off a race that Busch dominated. Neither driver or team have been flashy at tracks comparable to Pocono in 2024. But based solely on consistency, I'll take the No. 12 car this weekend.  

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Kyle Larson

Along with Reddick, these two drivers have displayed the most raw speed over the last month. Bell was on a tear until earning consecutive finishes outside the top 30 heading into Pocono. Larson has been in position to win multiple races at Pocono and hasn’t yet broken through. I'll ride with the No. 5 car this weekend, believing he and Hamlin will be the drivers to beat.

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott

GARAGE: Bubba Wallace