Fantasy Fastlane: Point battles aplenty as regular season wraps at Darlington

Darlington Raceway has produced some certified banger races over the years, with this past spring's Goodyear 400 adding to the list. It's also home to the regular-season finale in 2024, with two focal-point battles going on: one for the Regular Season Championship, the other at the elimination line. The bulk of those drivers typically run well at the track "Too Tough To Tame" and should be considered for your fantasy lineup this weekend. 

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MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

It's quite surprising that it took until last year’s Southern 500 for Larson to score his first Cup victory at Darlington given how strong he often looks there. Recently at the 1.33-mile, egg-shaped oval, he's been feast or famine. Aside from the victory, he has a best finish of 12th in the five Next Gen races at Darlington, including a pair of DNFs. He enters the weekend 17 points behind Tyler Reddick for the Regular Season Championship lead and will likely need to have a near-perfect weekend to even have a chance ...

MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

... That's because Reddick is elite at Darlington, himself. He's yet to find Victory Lane here but has been in position to win the last two, finishing runner-up to Larson last year and leading 174 of 293 laps in the spring before he attempted a Hail Mary pass entering Turn 3 on Chris Buescher. It didn't end well, as he was credited with a 32nd-place finish, two laps down. Reddick might need to be a tad conservative this weekend as there are 15 playoff points on the line if he holds onto the top spot.

MUST START:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing

Odds: 9-1

When Reddick and Buescher tangled in the spring, it was Keselowski who capitalized, snapping a 110-race winless drought spanning more than three years. Darlington happens to be one of Keselowski's best tracks on the schedule, entering with four consecutive top-10 finishes. Leaping to seventh in the regular-season standings, mathematically, he can still crack the top five with a superb weekend.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin| View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota 

Odds: 11-2

What a bummer of a last week it has been for Hamlin. It began with an L2 penalty, resulting in a loss of 75 regular-season points and 10 playoff points. Then, he wrecked out in Stage 2 at Daytona, dropping to eighth in the standings. With four Darlington victories -- he was on pace to dominate last year’s Southern 500, leading a race-high 177 laps before reporting a loose wheel -- this is a good opportunity for the No. 11 team to gain back some important playoff points.

SLEEPER PICK:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 25-1

Gaining 21 points on Buescher for the final playoff spot will be a tall task for Wallace this weekend, but he does have four consecutive top-10 finishes at Darlington. Anything is possible and, oftentimes, he performs at his best under an exorbitant amount of pressure. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 16-1

Buescher has been in contention to win the last two Darlington races, placing third in last year’s Southern 500. We already noted what happened in the spring leading to the cool-mannered Texan showing his displeasure with Reddick after the checkered flag. If Wallace overcomes the 21-point deficit, it would be easy to pinpoint the spring Darlington event as a race where plenty of points -- and even a win -- got away from the No. 17 team. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Josh Berry | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Chevrolet

Odds: 55-1

In the three months since SHR announced it is closing at the conclusion of the 2024 season, the four teams in the building haven’t given up. Berry has had several highlights this season, most recently for the wrong reason when he went upside down at Daytona. The Rodney Childers-led No. 4 team always excels at Darlington. Kevin Harvick was in contention to win last year’s Southern 500 until he was caught on pit road when a late caution flew. Berry also finished third in the wild ending to the spring race.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 16-1

There should be optimism within the No. 12 team of how Blaney performed in the spring at Darlington. The record book shows a last-place finish, but Blaney charged through the field in the opening stage from a midpack starting spot. The downside -- Blaney has never finished better than eighth in 15 Darlington starts and has only three top-10 finishes. Granted, two of those have been in the last three events.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 12-1

In fewer starts, Bell’s numbers are slightly better than Blaney’s, though he also has a 20% top-10 finishing percentage. If the No. 20 car shows potential race-winning speed in practice this could change, but even when he won the pole last September, he struggled drastically in the race.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Toyota

Odds: 35-1

Jones will be a trendy pick this weekend, thus why I’m going to mention the actuality here. Yes, Jones is elite at Darlington with a pair of grueling Southern 500 victories, but Legacy Motor Club is in a down year. Jones finished 19th in the spring and his single top 10 this year came in the Daytona 500. 

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Harrison Burton vs. Carson Hocevar 

Burton's valiant victory at Daytona hit a lot of people in the feels. It gave the Wood Brothers their long-awaited 100th victory, spanning the last seven decades. But even after the prosperous triumph, Burton is still last of the 34 full-time drivers in the championship standings. Meanwhile, Hocevar has become the lead driver at Spire Motorsports and is a weekly top-10 threat. Give me the No. 77 car. 

Bubba Wallace vs. Ross Chastain

Dating back six years, Chastain earned his first true opportunity with an elite team at Darlington and almost made the most of it. Oftentimes, he excels at the rugged oval, but doesn’t get the finishes. Wallace rides a streak of four straight top 10s at Darlington. If one of them is going to make up the points deficit to Buescher, the bet should be on Wallace. 

Martin Truex Jr. vs. Ty Gibbs

Both Joe Gibbs Racing drivers are limping into the postseason. When the postseason begins, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see one of these two with an early exit despite high expectations. Truex has just a pair of top-10 finishes in the last 13 races. With two Darlington victories, it would be easy to pick Truex, but I’ll go the opposite and choose Gibbs. He finished a career-best second in the spring at Darlington and is building momentum with consecutive top 10s for the first time since May. 

Chris Buescher vs. Kyle Busch

Unfortunately for Rowdy Nation, Busch is in a must-win scenario this weekend after Burton outdueled him on an overtime restart at Daytona. His single Darlington victory came more than 16 years ago. Buescher is still looking for that glory but has shown race-winning speed in the last two Darlington races. The No. 17 car is the way to go. 

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, William Byron

GARAGE: Chris Buescher