Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: All in on Larson at Atlanta

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.

PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today


Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-4

Fastlane forecast: If you have two Larson uses left, this is a spot to use one. If you have one use left, this is THE spot to use it at. He has been the best car on 1.5-mile tracks with an average of 51.2 points per race, two wins and 836 laps led – all best in the series this year. One of those races was a 269-lap led showing at Atlanta in March where he finished second after losing the lead in the closing laps. If you don't have uses, stack your bonus picks.

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's overall Atlanta record has been spotty, but his last four starts there have produced three top fives and the fourth-most points in that stretch. On the season, he has scored the fourth-most points at 1.5-mile tracks with a fourth-place finish at Atlanta holding a share for his best 1.5-mile result. I'd prioritize Atlanta and New Hampshire for uses with Michigan right behind those if you have three uses left.

Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 15-2

Fastlane forecast: Say hello to the driver with the best average finish on 1.5-mile tracks this season. That's right, Busch's 4.4 mark edges out Larson's 5.4 mark for the season so far. Busch has a win (Kansas), the third-most points – an average of 44.8 – and is one of two drivers with top 10s in all five 1.5-mile races to date. His last nine Atlanta starts have produced one of his two wins here and seven top-seven finishes.

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's Road America winner has a top five and four top 10s at his home track. Engine issues sent him to a 38th-place finish in March, and that is the outlier in his stats here. Back-to-back top fives on 1.5-mile tracks this year place him with the sixth-most points on that track type. If you have two uses, I’d hold him back for the remaining regular-season road courses. At three uses, it's tempting to take the polesitter out for a spin.

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Byron's first Atlanta top 10 came in the spring – his first one at the track in four starts. On the season, he is one of two drivers with top 10s in every 1.5-mile track race and has the second-most points scored in those races. At three or more uses, I'd play him. At two uses, I'd be holding him back for New Hampshire and either Watkins Glen or Michigan.

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Nine of Truex's last 10 races at Atlanta in the Cup Series have seen him finish in the top nine. His 1.5-mile stats this season have seen him score the eighth-most points -- an average of 32.6 points. I would prioritize Watkins Glen and New Hampshire for him. If you have four left, I'd say this one, the Indianapolis Road Course and Michigan are close calls.

Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: Harvick has won two of the last four races at Atlanta and has led triple-digit laps in seven of the last 10 races in the Peach State. His 2021 numbers at 1.5-mile tracks leave him with the 10th-most points – an average of 32 points per race – and no laps led. But he does have a 9.4 average finish with four top 10s. It's tough when the track history says yes, but the 2021 results say maybe, at best.

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Blaney is the most recent winner at Atlanta and has two top-five finishes in his last two starts there. That comes after a best finish of 12th in his first four runs there. The 1.5-mile tracks have not been nearly the strong point for him this year that they were last year – he has the ninth-most points at that track length. His season since his win has been a bit strange – just one top five and six top 10s in those 14 races.

Brad Keselowski | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has won two of the last five races at Atlanta, but similar to Ford stablemate Kevin Harvick, his 2021 season has been uneven. While he has the fifth-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season, he has two top 10s in his last nine races and just one race with more 30 points in that same stretch. I'm inclined to roll the dice on Harvick or Ryan Blaney over the 2012 champ right now.

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Bowman's lone top five and top 10 at Atlanta came this spring with a third-place run. He has the seventh-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this season – which ranks him fourth among his Hendrick teammates in that stat. He's a solid play, but given his relatively steady road-course record and my need to have some drivers available for Michigan, I'll be holding him back this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK: Kurt Busch | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: Busch has three wins at Atlanta in his Cup career. He has finished in the top eight in nine of the last 12 races there, and he was running well in the spring before contact with Denny Hamlin derailed his day. He enters this race on a hot streak with four top-eight finishes and four 40-plus point races in his last five 2021 races. The concern is he has the 21st-most points on 1.5-mile tracks with just one top 10 in those five races in 2021.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: Dillon has just one top 10 in nine Atlanta starts, but that result came in this spring's race. In fact, his last two Atlanta results (11th and sixth) are the best of his career, and that jives with a characteristic of this track tending to favor veteran drivers. Dillon is now in his eighth full-time Cup season and has the 11th-most points on 1.5-mile tracks this year.

SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats

Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 100-1

Fastlane forecast: In two of his last three Atlanta starts, Buescher has nabbed top-10 finishes. On 1.5-mile tracks this season, he has the 12th-most points – an average of 30.4 points per race. That's more than Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Kurt Busch and Christopher Bell. Despite five straight races outside the top 15 in '21, he has top 10s in his last three 1.5-mile races.

STAY AWAY FROM: Joey Logano | View stats 


Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Logano's struggles on 1.5-mile tracks this season have been well documented in this space. He has the 16th-most points in races at those tracks and just one top five. His Atlanta stats leave quite a bit to be desired with just five top 10s in 15 starts. I have plays I like a lot more this weekend and will be leaving the 2018 champ on the bench for this one.

STAY AWAY FROM: Tyler Reddick | View stats 


Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 80-1

Fastlane forecast: Atlanta is not the place to roll the dice on Reddick. In two Cup starts, he has finished 16th (2020) and 26th (spring 2021). His Xfinity stats here were a mixed bag with a top five and a finish just inside the top 20. His recent road-course runs make him a solid consideration there, but at this track, I'd look at his teammate if I went the RCR route.

STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats 


Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 100-1

Fastlane forecast: Almirola has the 29th-most points scored in the five 1.5-mile races this season. He has yet to score 20 points in any one of those races and hasn't finished better than 20th – which came at the March Atlanta race. In his career at Atlanta, he has just two top 10s in 11 starts. With how his season has gone, Daytona is the only other place we're going to consider a play.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott; Garage: Ryan Blaney.

Just missed the cut: Kevin Harvick, William Byron (saving due to other drivers with few uses left in the lineup), Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman and Austin Dillon.


Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN.



Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.