BACK TO GALLERIES
Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Break out the studs at Michigan
By RJ Kraft | Published: August 20, 2021 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
1 of 18
NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
2 of 18
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 3-1
Fastlane forecast: This is the race we've saved that final Larson use for and with good reason. He's been one of top points plays all year with the 550-horsepower package that will be utilized at Michigan. Oh yeah, and he won three straight races here from 2016-17 when the nickname "two-mile Kyle" came to be. If you have any uses left, he has to be in your lineup.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 3-1
Fastlane forecast: This is the race we've saved that final Larson use for and with good reason. He's been one of top points plays all year with the 550-horsepower package that will be utilized at Michigan. Oh yeah, and he won three straight races here from 2016-17 when the nickname "two-mile Kyle" came to be. If you have any uses left, he has to be in your lineup.
3 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Michigan had been one of the less desirable tracks for Busch. And while he only has one win at the two-mile venue, the two-time Cup champion has ripped off six straight top-six finishes there and has the third-most points at the track over the last four races. Not to mention, he has been one of the best with the 550-horsepower package and both of his 2021 wins have come with it.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Michigan had been one of the less desirable tracks for Busch. And while he only has one win at the two-mile venue, the two-time Cup champion has ripped off six straight top-six finishes there and has the third-most points at the track over the last four races. Not to mention, he has been one of the best with the 550-horsepower package and both of his 2021 wins have come with it.
4 of 18
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has been a strong source of points with the 550-horsepower package. He also has a solid Michigan history with two wins and more recently, two runner-up finishes in his last three starts there. I've gotten some questions about saving him for the Daytona finale but if I could use him once, I'd absolutely choose to play him at Michigan every time.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has been a strong source of points with the 550-horsepower package. He also has a solid Michigan history with two wins and more recently, two runner-up finishes in his last three starts there. I've gotten some questions about saving him for the Daytona finale but if I could use him once, I'd absolutely choose to play him at Michigan every time.
5 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Saving my final Truex use (through the garage) ended up being the highlight of a pretty rough Indianapolis race in fantasy for me. While he has yet to win in the Irish Hills, he does have four straight top-four finishes there – good for the second-most points. He also has seven top-five finishes in his last 12 starts there. Not a bad fallback track for a use.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Saving my final Truex use (through the garage) ended up being the highlight of a pretty rough Indianapolis race in fantasy for me. While he has yet to win in the Irish Hills, he does have four straight top-four finishes there – good for the second-most points. He also has seven top-five finishes in his last 12 starts there. Not a bad fallback track for a use.
6 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Michigan has long been one of Elliott's best tracks by average finish – 7.7 with nine top 10s in 10 starts but his road course success of recent years has overshadowed that. The reigning champ has been a bit more up-and-down than we'd like with the 550-horsepower package, but if you have a use throw him in. The percentages say he'll score a top-10 finish.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Michigan has long been one of Elliott's best tracks by average finish – 7.7 with nine top 10s in 10 starts but his road course success of recent years has overshadowed that. The reigning champ has been a bit more up-and-down than we'd like with the 550-horsepower package, but if you have a use throw him in. The percentages say he'll score a top-10 finish.
7 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has scored at least 34 points in seven of the eight races where the 550-horsepower package has been utilized. That consistency is among some of the best in the series. His summer swoon is a bit concerning as he has four finishes of 20th-or-worse in the past five races this season but he does have two top-12 finishes in his last three starts at Michigan.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has scored at least 34 points in seven of the eight races where the 550-horsepower package has been utilized. That consistency is among some of the best in the series. His summer swoon is a bit concerning as he has four finishes of 20th-or-worse in the past five races this season but he does have two top-12 finishes in his last three starts at Michigan.
8 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick swept the Michigan races last season and has won four of the last five races here. Yes, the results with the 550-horsepower package this season are far from what we are used to with him and he hasn't had the speed to lead much this season. Yet, with uses dwindling elsewhere, I am inclined to turn to the veteran with the goal of a 30-plus points day here.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick swept the Michigan races last season and has won four of the last five races here. Yes, the results with the 550-horsepower package this season are far from what we are used to with him and he hasn't had the speed to lead much this season. Yet, with uses dwindling elsewhere, I am inclined to turn to the veteran with the goal of a 30-plus points day here.
9 of 18
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Michigan has been a mixed bag for Blaney. He has four top 10s in his last six starts there with the other finishes coming outside the top 20. Two big things in his favor for Sunday: He'll have good track position to start thanks to his runner-up finish at Indianapolis and he has five races (out of eight) with at least 35 points on the 550-horsepower package.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Michigan has been a mixed bag for Blaney. He has four top 10s in his last six starts there with the other finishes coming outside the top 20. Two big things in his favor for Sunday: He'll have good track position to start thanks to his runner-up finish at Indianapolis and he has five races (out of eight) with at least 35 points on the 550-horsepower package.
10 of 18
Sarah Stier | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: At this point in the season, I have no idea what to make of Keselowski's year. This is a hometown race for him and he has done almost everything but win at Michigan. He's been the best Penske car by points on 550-horsepower tracks by a hair over Ryan Blaney. You likely have the uses for a play here but I wouldn't do more than a garage stash given how volatile his season has been to date.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: At this point in the season, I have no idea what to make of Keselowski's year. This is a hometown race for him and he has done almost everything but win at Michigan. He's been the best Penske car by points on 550-horsepower tracks by a hair over Ryan Blaney. You likely have the uses for a play here but I wouldn't do more than a garage stash given how volatile his season has been to date.
11 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Over his last five races, DiBenedetto has averaged 30.2 points and a 9.2 finish. The best of those runs came last week at Indianapolis where he finished fifth. In last year's Michigan races, DiBenedetto scored the ninth-most points and also nabbed a top-10 finish. If you are looking for a driver flying under the radar for the last month-plus, this is your guy.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Over his last five races, DiBenedetto has averaged 30.2 points and a 9.2 finish. The best of those runs came last week at Indianapolis where he finished fifth. In last year's Michigan races, DiBenedetto scored the ninth-most points and also nabbed a top-10 finish. If you are looking for a driver flying under the radar for the last month-plus, this is your guy.
12 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell's hot streak of four straight top 10s came to a sudden end at Indianapolis but there is still lots to like here as a potential play. In last year's races at Michigan, he scored the eighth-most points in the doubleheader weekend. The 550-horsepower results have been up-and-down all year but he offers an upside that not many others in the sleeper arena do.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell's hot streak of four straight top 10s came to a sudden end at Indianapolis but there is still lots to like here as a potential play. In last year's races at Michigan, he scored the eighth-most points in the doubleheader weekend. The 550-horsepower results have been up-and-down all year but he offers an upside that not many others in the sleeper arena do.
13 of 18
Logan Riely | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch scored the fifth-most points in last year's races at Michigan. For his career, he has three wins there and of recent runs in the Irish Hills, he has five top 10s in his last six starts. He's been up-and-down with the 550-horsepower package but has had three races with at least 39 points with it – including his victory at Atlanta last month.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch scored the fifth-most points in last year's races at Michigan. For his career, he has three wins there and of recent runs in the Irish Hills, he has five top 10s in his last six starts. He's been up-and-down with the 550-horsepower package but has had three races with at least 39 points with it – including his victory at Atlanta last month.
14 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has scored a few more points with the 550-horsepower package than his RCR teammate Austin Dillon. Readers know that the driver of the No. 8 has been a fixture in this section of Fastlane for the bulk of the year due to his intermediate and road course runs. I'd expect him to hit close to his average of 30.5 points on 550-horsepower tracks.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has scored a few more points with the 550-horsepower package than his RCR teammate Austin Dillon. Readers know that the driver of the No. 8 has been a fixture in this section of Fastlane for the bulk of the year due to his intermediate and road course runs. I'd expect him to hit close to his average of 30.5 points on 550-horsepower tracks.
15 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
BE CAUTIOUS OF: Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: The Michigan stats say he's a must with three wins and an average finish of 11.7. The 550-horsepower numbers this year say something different entirely with just one race (out of eight) of over 31 points. I'm inclined to place more stock in the latter. What makes him different from Harvick? Harvick has at least shown some flashes with this package.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: The Michigan stats say he's a must with three wins and an average finish of 11.7. The 550-horsepower numbers this year say something different entirely with just one race (out of eight) of over 31 points. I'm inclined to place more stock in the latter. What makes him different from Harvick? Harvick has at least shown some flashes with this package.
16 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
BE CAUTIOUS OF: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: On the one hand, Bowman has been one of the best on 550-horsepower tracks with five races (out of eight) of at least 36 points. But Michigan has been a bugaboo for him with just two top 10s in 11 starts – and no finish better than 10th there. He's not a flat avoid because of usage issues elsewhere, but he may not be the best fit for this weekend's race.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: On the one hand, Bowman has been one of the best on 550-horsepower tracks with five races (out of eight) of at least 36 points. But Michigan has been a bugaboo for him with just two top 10s in 11 starts – and no finish better than 10th there. He's not a flat avoid because of usage issues elsewhere, but he may not be the best fit for this weekend's race.
17 of 18
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ross Chastain | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: In eight races this season with the 550-horsepower package, Chastain has not scored more than 23 points and has no top 10s. Those stats scream avoid and are a hard pass for me. Looking ahead, I may consider him for the regular-season finale at Daytona.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: In eight races this season with the 550-horsepower package, Chastain has not scored more than 23 points and has no top 10s. Those stats scream avoid and are a hard pass for me. Looking ahead, I may consider him for the regular-season finale at Daytona.
18 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick; Garage: Kurt Busch
Just missed the cut: Matt DiBenedetto, Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Brad Keselowski and Tyler Reddick
Out of uses: Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: Matt DiBenedetto, Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Brad Keselowski and Tyler Reddick
Out of uses: Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.