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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Harvick a stage-point hunter at Watkins Glen?
By RJ Kraft | Published: August 6, 2021 19
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 2-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has won the last two races held at Watkins Glen. He is the current king of the road as he has two road course wins this year and seven in his career — all coming since 2018. At any available uses, he should be in your lineup. This is his best track left on the regular-season schedule, so simply put: use him.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 2-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has won the last two races held at Watkins Glen. He is the current king of the road as he has two road course wins this year and seven in his career — all coming since 2018. At any available uses, he should be in your lineup. This is his best track left on the regular-season schedule, so simply put: use him.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Just because Truex hasn’t won a road-course race in more than two years doesn’t mean you should skip over him this weekend. Take a look at his last three races at Watkins Glen from 2017-19: first, second and second. I'll take my chances with that level of recent success. If you have one use, this is where I'd use it as I like this track a little more for him than Michigan.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Just because Truex hasn’t won a road-course race in more than two years doesn’t mean you should skip over him this weekend. Take a look at his last three races at Watkins Glen from 2017-19: first, second and second. I'll take my chances with that level of recent success. If you have one use, this is where I'd use it as I like this track a little more for him than Michigan.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 17-4
Fastlane forecast: If you have one Larson use left (which I do), I'd save it for Michigan since he has been really strong with the 550-horsepower package and we need to make that use really count. If you have two uses left, though, I'd look at Watkins Glen as the place to spend it. He has back-to-back top-eight finishes there and has been solid on road courses with one win in '21.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 17-4
Fastlane forecast: If you have one Larson use left (which I do), I'd save it for Michigan since he has been really strong with the 550-horsepower package and we need to make that use really count. If you have two uses left, though, I'd look at Watkins Glen as the place to spend it. He has back-to-back top-eight finishes there and has been solid on road courses with one win in '21.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: In three of Hamlin's last four races at Watkins Glen, he has nabbed a win (in 2016) and two other top-four finishes. This is similar to Larson, where if I have one use left, I wouldn't spend it here, but if I have two uses available, I'd strongly consider it. On the season, he has the fifth-most points scored on road courses – an average of 35.8 points.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: In three of Hamlin's last four races at Watkins Glen, he has nabbed a win (in 2016) and two other top-four finishes. This is similar to Larson, where if I have one use left, I wouldn't spend it here, but if I have two uses available, I'd strongly consider it. On the season, he has the fifth-most points scored on road courses – an average of 35.8 points.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: In all but three of his 15 starts at Watkins Glen, Busch has finished in the top 10 and has two wins there. It's his best track left in the regular season. If you have multiple uses left, he's a lock. But what if you just have one? I'm strongly leaning toward saving that use for the Indianapolis Road Course given a) how he has run at road courses with extra seat time (6.5 average finish) and b) not digging his starting position for Sunday.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: In all but three of his 15 starts at Watkins Glen, Busch has finished in the top 10 and has two wins there. It's his best track left in the regular season. If you have multiple uses left, he's a lock. But what if you just have one? I'm strongly leaning toward saving that use for the Indianapolis Road Course given a) how he has run at road courses with extra seat time (6.5 average finish) and b) not digging his starting position for Sunday.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 15-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano won at this track in 2015 as Kevin Harvick ran dry on the final lap, and that came in a run of four straight top-seven finishes here. In the last three races here, he has finished outside the top 20. Here's the stat to know: He has the second-most points on road courses in 2021 – an average of 41.3 points. That's a play advisable at any usage.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 15-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano won at this track in 2015 as Kevin Harvick ran dry on the final lap, and that came in a run of four straight top-seven finishes here. In the last three races here, he has finished outside the top 20. Here's the stat to know: He has the second-most points on road courses in 2021 – an average of 41.3 points. That's a play advisable at any usage.
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Maddie Meyer | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has done everything but win at Watkins Glen. He had three straight runner ups there from 2011-13 and has six top 10s there in 10 starts. He also has the fifth-most points in the last four Watkins Glen races and ninth-most points on road courses this year. He has the pole position to start the day, so he should net solid Stage 1 points at the very least.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has done everything but win at Watkins Glen. He had three straight runner ups there from 2011-13 and has six top 10s there in 10 starts. He also has the fifth-most points in the last four Watkins Glen races and ninth-most points on road courses this year. He has the pole position to start the day, so he should net solid Stage 1 points at the very least.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has top 10s in two of his last three Watkins Glen races, peaking with a fifth-place run in 2019. He also has the seventh-most points over that stretch. He has one top 10 in the four road course races so far in 2021, but he enters this race with four top-six finishes in his last five 2021 starts – four races with at least 36 points. He'll lineup in the top three, too.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has top 10s in two of his last three Watkins Glen races, peaking with a fifth-place run in 2019. He also has the seventh-most points over that stretch. He has one top 10 in the four road course races so far in 2021, but he enters this race with four top-six finishes in his last five 2021 starts – four races with at least 36 points. He'll lineup in the top three, too.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has produced three top-six finishes, three 40-plus point days and the fourth-most points on the four road courses this year. He didn't start better than 13th in any of those races, but now he has a win in his pocket so maybe he's not as points hungry for this one. He has been a top-10 machine at Watkins Glen with six such finishes in his last seven starts.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has produced three top-six finishes, three 40-plus point days and the fourth-most points on the four road courses this year. He didn't start better than 13th in any of those races, but now he has a win in his pocket so maybe he's not as points hungry for this one. He has been a top-10 machine at Watkins Glen with six such finishes in his last seven starts.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick's road-course performance to date this season has not been good. He has the 24th-most points on that track type with 33 of his 63 points scored coming in one race. He does have two straight top 10s at Watkins Glen and the sixth-most points in the last two races there. More importantly, he has good track position to start with and you'd think his standings position dictates that the 4 team goes stage-point hunting.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick's road-course performance to date this season has not been good. He has the 24th-most points on that track type with 33 of his 63 points scored coming in one race. He does have two straight top 10s at Watkins Glen and the sixth-most points in the last two races there. More importantly, he has good track position to start with and you'd think his standings position dictates that the 4 team goes stage-point hunting.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ross Chastain | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Chastain's last three road-course starts have produced finishes of fourth, seventh and seventh and an average of 36.7 points in those races. The Sonoma result – one of those seventh-place finishes – came from a starting spot deep in the field. He has the eighth-most points on road courses this year and is a play to keep in mind if you are out of big names.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Chastain's last three road-course starts have produced finishes of fourth, seventh and seventh and an average of 36.7 points in those races. The Sonoma result – one of those seventh-place finishes – came from a starting spot deep in the field. He has the eighth-most points on road courses this year and is a play to keep in mind if you are out of big names.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman has been one of the better point-getters in road races in the Cup Series in recent years. He has the seventh-most points scored in those races this year. The big thing to be leery of is his Watkins Glen numbers don't match the rest of his road resume. He has not finished better than 14th there in four starts.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman has been one of the better point-getters in road races in the Cup Series in recent years. He has the seventh-most points scored in those races this year. The big thing to be leery of is his Watkins Glen numbers don't match the rest of his road resume. He has not finished better than 14th there in four starts.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell has not made a Cup start at Watkins Glen but does have a runner-up finish and another top 10 in two Xfinity Series starts. Bell was on a major upswing heading into the Olympic break with two runner-up finishes and an additional top 10 in the previous three races. That's some strong momentum heading into the homestretch of the regular season.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell has not made a Cup start at Watkins Glen but does have a runner-up finish and another top 10 in two Xfinity Series starts. Bell was on a major upswing heading into the Olympic break with two runner-up finishes and an additional top 10 in the previous three races. That's some strong momentum heading into the homestretch of the regular season.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Daniel Suarez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing Team, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: In two of his three starts at Watkins Glen, Suarez has top-five finishes. And while his road record has been spotty this season with two finishes outside the top 30, he did nab a top-12 finish at Sonoma. The pre-Olympic break races were a little bumpy for him, but this is a good place for a turnaround.
Trackhouse Racing Team, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: In two of his three starts at Watkins Glen, Suarez has top-five finishes. And while his road record has been spotty this season with two finishes outside the top 30, he did nab a top-12 finish at Sonoma. The pre-Olympic break races were a little bumpy for him, but this is a good place for a turnaround.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Couple reasons for this avoid label. He has not finished better than 20th in his last three 2021 races, so he’s in a bit of a rut. The bigger concern? His road-course stats this year have been, well, brutal. His 28.0 average finish is 34th among all drivers on that track type, and three of his finishes in those races have been outside the top 30. Hard pass for me.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Couple reasons for this avoid label. He has not finished better than 20th in his last three 2021 races, so he’s in a bit of a rut. The bigger concern? His road-course stats this year have been, well, brutal. His 28.0 average finish is 34th among all drivers on that track type, and three of his finishes in those races have been outside the top 30. Hard pass for me.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: We've talked about McDowell as a road-racing option before, but with four regular-season races to go, we see the finish line in sight and don't have to micromanage uses. McDowell has one top 12 in 11 Watkins Glen starts and has no top 15s in his last eight '21 races. I don't feel confident he'll nab stage points, and I am prioritizing those I feel will.
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: We've talked about McDowell as a road-racing option before, but with four regular-season races to go, we see the finish line in sight and don't have to micromanage uses. McDowell has one top 12 in 11 Watkins Glen starts and has no top 15s in his last eight '21 races. I don't feel confident he'll nab stage points, and I am prioritizing those I feel will.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Erik Jones | View stats
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: When you glance at Jones' Watkins Glen numbers and see he has a better average finish than Chase Elliott here, it's tempting to want to throw him into a lineup. However, he is in different equipment now and has not posted a top 10 on any road course this season and a lack of stage points (he has only four) makes him a much less appealing play.
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: When you glance at Jones' Watkins Glen numbers and see he has a better average finish than Chase Elliott here, it's tempting to want to throw him into a lineup. However, he is in different equipment now and has not posted a top 10 on any road course this season and a lack of stage points (he has only four) makes him a much less appealing play.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney; Garage: Kevin Harvick
Just missed the cut: Kurt Busch, Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson (usage concerns), Kyle Busch (usage concerns), Alex Bowman
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: Kurt Busch, Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson (usage concerns), Kyle Busch (usage concerns), Alex Bowman
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.