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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Heavy on Hendrick at Dover
By RJ Kraft | Published: May 14, 2021 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex has won three races this season with the 750-HP package and boasts an average of 50 points in those races on non-road courses. Dover, the site of his first Cup win, has been one of his best tracks. He has three wins there. In his last nine starts at the "Monster Mile," he has finished outside the top four just once. We're building around MTJ this weekend.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex has won three races this season with the 750-HP package and boasts an average of 50 points in those races on non-road courses. Dover, the site of his first Cup win, has been one of his best tracks. He has three wins there. In his last nine starts at the "Monster Mile," he has finished outside the top four just once. We're building around MTJ this weekend.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has scored the most points with the 750-HP package on non-road courses this season. He has yet to finish outside the top five in a race with that rules package. Dover has not been one of his best tracks, but he did nab a win here last summer and has four top-seven finishes in his last six starts. If I had three to four uses left, I'd lean toward a save.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has scored the most points with the 750-HP package on non-road courses this season. He has yet to finish outside the top five in a race with that rules package. Dover has not been one of his best tracks, but he did nab a win here last summer and has four top-seven finishes in his last six starts. If I had three to four uses left, I'd lean toward a save.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Dover is Larson's second-best track on the active circuit based on average finish – 7.4. He won here in the fall race of 2019 and has four top-five finishes in the last six races there. In 12 starts, he has only finished outside the top 10 three times at this track. I like this play quite a bit, but if you have less than three uses, a save isn't the worst idea in the world.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Dover is Larson's second-best track on the active circuit based on average finish – 7.4. He won here in the fall race of 2019 and has four top-five finishes in the last six races there. In 12 starts, he has only finished outside the top 10 three times at this track. I like this play quite a bit, but if you have less than three uses, a save isn't the worst idea in the world.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Darlington made 10 straight top 10s for Byron on the season. We've been saying for weeks he is a play to jump on as he is a great source of points – averaging 40.9 points per race in that stretch. He has scored the fourth-most points with the 750-HP package on non-road courses – his lowest total was 36 -- and owns the fourth-most stage points this year.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Darlington made 10 straight top 10s for Byron on the season. We've been saying for weeks he is a play to jump on as he is a great source of points – averaging 40.9 points per race in that stretch. He has scored the fourth-most points with the 750-HP package on non-road courses – his lowest total was 36 -- and owns the fourth-most stage points this year.
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James Gilbert | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has found a groove at Dover during his SHR tenure. He has three wins there in 14 starts with SHR, including victories in two of the last six races at the track. That stretch has seen him not finish outside the top six. Harvick has been a solid source of points with the 750-HP package, and this feels like another spot to deploy him.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has found a groove at Dover during his SHR tenure. He has three wins there in 14 starts with SHR, including victories in two of the last six races at the track. That stretch has seen him not finish outside the top six. Harvick has been a solid source of points with the 750-HP package, and this feels like another spot to deploy him.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2021 stats have shown Logano to be a much more effective play on the tracks where the 750-HP package is used. The 2018 champion has the third-most points with this rules package on non-road courses, and he ran pretty well with it on the Daytona Road Course. Dover will use this package as well, and he has four top-eight finishes in his last five starts there.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2021 stats have shown Logano to be a much more effective play on the tracks where the 750-HP package is used. The 2018 champion has the third-most points with this rules package on non-road courses, and he ran pretty well with it on the Daytona Road Course. Dover will use this package as well, and he has four top-eight finishes in his last five starts there.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch pulls into Dover with back-to-back top-three finishes on the season. Dover has been a solid track for the two-time champion over the years. He has three wins there and five top-10 finishes over his last seven starts there. In the last four races there, he has scored the sixth-most points at the 1-mile track. I'd ride the wave with this play for another week.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch pulls into Dover with back-to-back top-three finishes on the season. Dover has been a solid track for the two-time champion over the years. He has three wins there and five top-10 finishes over his last seven starts there. In the last four races there, he has scored the sixth-most points at the 1-mile track. I'd ride the wave with this play for another week.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has seven top-five finishes at Dover in 10 starts, including a 2018 fall win. While he has finished 38th and 39th in two of the last three races there, the overall body of work says a play is highly advisable as it's his second-best non-road course track left in the regular season. He has posted back-to-back top-seven finishes on the season.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott has seven top-five finishes at Dover in 10 starts, including a 2018 fall win. While he has finished 38th and 39th in two of the last three races there, the overall body of work says a play is highly advisable as it's his second-best non-road course track left in the regular season. He has posted back-to-back top-seven finishes on the season.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman has top-five finishes in three of his last four starts at Dover and scored the fifth-most points over that stretch. The problem is you don't know which Bowman you are going to get based on how his 2021 season has gone so far. He won with this rules package at Richmond but only has the 13th-most points with the 750-HP package on non-road courses.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman has top-five finishes in three of his last four starts at Dover and scored the fifth-most points over that stretch. The problem is you don't know which Bowman you are going to get based on how his 2021 season has gone so far. He won with this rules package at Richmond but only has the 13th-most points with the 750-HP package on non-road courses.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: With the 750-HP package on non-road courses, Bell has the 10th-most points this season. And that doesn't include his win on the Daytona Road Course – which also used this rules package. His last three races with this rules package have seen him average 30.3 points per race.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: With the 750-HP package on non-road courses, Bell has the 10th-most points this season. And that doesn't include his win on the Daytona Road Course – which also used this rules package. His last three races with this rules package have seen him average 30.3 points per race.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has come into his own over the last month with four top 10s and an average of 31.3 points in the past six races. With the 750-HP package this season, the second-year Cup driver has the 12th-most points – more than Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has come into his own over the last month with four top 10s and an average of 31.3 points in the past six races. With the 750-HP package this season, the second-year Cup driver has the 12th-most points – more than Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Daniel Suarez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing Team, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 125-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez notched four straight top 10s in his first four Dover starts – all with Joe Gibbs Racing from 2017-18. Of the tracks left in the regular season, he has only a lower average finish at Watkins Glen. He has been a bit more consistent on the intermediates, but there's sleeper potential here.
Trackhouse Racing Team, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 125-1
Fastlane forecast: Suarez notched four straight top 10s in his first four Dover starts – all with Joe Gibbs Racing from 2017-18. Of the tracks left in the regular season, he has only a lower average finish at Watkins Glen. He has been a bit more consistent on the intermediates, but there's sleeper potential here.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ross Chastain | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: Chastain has quietly made some gains in his first season at Ganassi. Are the numbers flashy? No, but he does have four top-15 finishes in his last seven races. If only he can nab more stage points – he has just two so far. In two Xfinity starts at Dover last year, he finished in the top three.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: Chastain has quietly made some gains in his first season at Ganassi. Are the numbers flashy? No, but he does have four top-15 finishes in his last seven races. If only he can nab more stage points – he has just two so far. In two Xfinity starts at Dover last year, he finished in the top three.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has just two top 10s in 10 Dover starts and a best finish of eighth. He has not finished in the top 10 at this track since the spring 2018 race. With as valuable a driver as he is at intermediate tracks and road courses, this is a good chance to save the use for the Penske driver as we head into a road course-heavy summer.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 22-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has just two top 10s in 10 Dover starts and a best finish of eighth. He has not finished in the top 10 at this track since the spring 2018 race. With as valuable a driver as he is at intermediate tracks and road courses, this is a good chance to save the use for the Penske driver as we head into a road course-heavy summer.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Dover ranks in the bottom four of active tracks for the 2004 champion by average finish (18.0). He has only one win at the "Monster Mile" and just 12 top 10s in 41 starts. Since this year's Miami race, he has not finished better than 13th and scored no more than 24 points in a race. He has been struggling for more than months, so best to avoid him altogether.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Dover ranks in the bottom four of active tracks for the 2004 champion by average finish (18.0). He has only one win at the "Monster Mile" and just 12 top 10s in 41 starts. Since this year's Miami race, he has not finished better than 13th and scored no more than 24 points in a race. He has been struggling for more than months, so best to avoid him altogether.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's last-place finish at Darlington marks the sixth race this season where he has earned single-digit points and the third race where has scored exactly one point. While his seventh-place finish here last fall is tempting to go with, he simply can't be trusted as a play right now.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's last-place finish at Darlington marks the sixth race this season where he has earned single-digit points and the third race where has scored exactly one point. While his seventh-place finish here last fall is tempting to go with, he simply can't be trusted as a play right now.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, William Byron, Kyle Busch; Garage: Chase Elliott
.
Just missed the cut: Denny Hamlin (usage concerns), Joey Logano and Christopher Bell.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 2 p.m. ET on FS1.
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: Denny Hamlin (usage concerns), Joey Logano and Christopher Bell.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday’s race at 2 p.m. ET on FS1.
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.