Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Penske power at Talladega

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.

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Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has two wins at Talladega including a victory in last year's playoff race and has four superspeedway wins since 2016. He also has four top-four finishes in his last six 'Dega starts. The JGR veteran is fresh off a victory at Las Vegas to lock himself into the Round of 8 so he can be as aggressive as he wants to be. In fantasy, I’ll make him a significant part of my bonus picks but at three uses or less, he’s a save to me. If you somehow have all five uses, turn him loose for sure.

Ryan Blaney (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Much like his Penske teammates, Blaney has had success at Talladega. YRB has two wins in his last four starts there and is the most recent superspeedway winner with a victory in the regular-season finale at Daytona. He has the seventh-most points on superspeedways this year and the most points over the last five at Talladega. He is usable at every track left, so we need to pick wisely.

Joey Logano (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: Logano has three victories at Talladega with the most recent coming in 2018. He has led laps in 11 of his last 12 starts there. Despite crash-induced exits in his last two starts there, he has the seventh-most points in the last five races there with the other three starts producing races with at least 33 points. I'm trusting in his past Talladega success with the play here and also prioritizing saving uses with certain other playoff drivers.

Chase Elliott (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Elliott has a win, four top fives and five top 10s in 11 starts at Talladega. Over the last five races there, he has the third-most points earned. In superspeedway races this season, he also has the third-most points scored. The question comes down to uses with the reigning champ. You HAVE to have one available for next weekend at the Charlotte Roval and its advisable to have two others to cover Kansas and Martinsville.

Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has been one of the best at Talladega. He has six wins at the 2.66-mile track including a last-lap victory in the spring race this year. While the six races prior to that at 'Dega saw him finish no better than 13th, he still has posted the second-most points over the last five races there – meaning he's getting stage points while the end result is less than ideal. Longtime readers know, I love drivers that get stage points.

Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: The 2014 champ's lack of usual 1.5-mile results has us looking at other spots to utilize him. This season, he has scored the fourth-most points on superspeedways – an average of 33 points – with two top fives including a fourth-place run at Talladega in the spring. His record at the Alabama track is spotty – one win in 41 starts and just three top 10s in his last nine starts. Given his points position, I expect "El Toro" to be aggressive on the stage points front and I want that in my lineup.

William Byron (P) | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Byron's last two starts at Talladega have produced top-five finishes and he has the fourth-most points at the Alabama track over the last five races there. He seems to be snake bit of late but despite trouble at Las Vegas, he is only a handful of points below the elimination line. His up-and-down second half makes it tougher to pinpoint exactly where to use him but this is one option.

Kurt Busch | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champion has top 10s (21) in over half of his 41 starts at Talladega. That includes a stretch of six top 10s in his nine starts dating back to last year before two straight finishes outside the top 30. His recent Talladega record has been up-and-down – much like his 2021 season that’s seen him finish in the top 10 twice and finish outside the top 15 twice in the last four races.

Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: From 2016-20, Almirola had a run of eight straight top 10s at Talladega and his second Cup win came here in this race in 2018. He isn't prone to get stage points but kind of like our old superspeedway pal Ryan Newman, he always seems to be around at the end. His 2021 has been tough, but he does have two top 15s in his last two superspeedway starts.

SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Reddick isn't a driver you necessarily associate with superspeedway racing but he has top 10s in his last two races on that track type and he’s scored the 10th-most points this season. His 11.3 average finish at Talladega is the best among Cup regulars with more than one start. In three 'Dega starts, he’s averaged 30.3 points. That is the type of upside play I like here.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats 


Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: In the season's three superspeedway races, Dillon has totaled the most points on this track type to date – 37 points per race. He finished eighth at Talladega in the spring and that result is one of three top-12 finishes he has had here in his last four starts. In the last 10 superspeedway races, he has the fifth-most points with eight races of at least 25 points.

SLEEPER PICK: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Every time the series stops at Talladega, Stenhouse is a trendy pick among the sleepers. His first Cup win came here in 2017 and he has five top fives and nine top 10s in 16 starts at this track. The bulk of his stronger superspeedway runs have come at the 2.66-mile superspeedway but one thing to be leery of: He has finished outside the top 20 in four of his last five superspeedway races.

SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Newman | View stats 


Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 40-1

Fastlane forecast: In Newman's last eight races at Talladega, he has five top 10s and six top-13 finishes. He has also has not wrecked out of any of those races (this note probably serves as the jinx on that for Sunday). He has the fifth-most points over the last five races at Talladega and that's largely off his finishes since he tends to ride in the back during the initial stages.

SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Preece | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 37 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Fastlane forecast: Say hello to the driver with the second-most points scored on superspeedways (an average of 34.7 points) this season. Preece has two top-six finishes – both at Daytona -- in those three races. Five of his nine career top 10s (and both of his top fives) have come on superspeedways. His 12.0 average finish at Talladega includes two top 10s and four top 15s in five starts.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Larson (P) | View stats 


Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: This stay away designation is all about maximizing uses with the regular-season champion. He remains a stout driver on 1.5-mile tracks and there are two of them left on the schedule – Texas and Kansas both in the Round of 8. Throw in his bad Talladega numbers – two top 10s and an average finish of 23.5 in 13 starts – and it's best to save the use for later.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Busch (P) | View stats 


Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: While Busch has a win at Talladega, he has just six top fives and eight top 10s in 32 starts. Similar to Larson, he has been a strong play on 1.5-mile tracks all season and we have two of those left on the schedule. He's also a formidable play for Martinsville and Phoenix if you have more than two uses left.

STAY AWAY FROM: Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats 


Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: In 66 superspeedway starts, Truex has yet to win and has just five top fives. Furthermore, the five tracks after this race (Charlotte Roval, Texas, Kansas, Martinsville and Phoenix) all represent better fantasy opportunities with the 2017 champion. Be sure to prioritize the Roval and Martinsville among that group. For those reasons, we are avoiding MTJ.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Garage: Ryan Preece



Just missed the cut: William Byron, Ryan Newman, Austin Dillon, Aric Almirola


Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Monday’s race at 1 p.m. ET on NBCSN.


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