Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Penske power evident at ‘The Paperclip’

Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.


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Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: Logano only has one win at Martinsville, but it feels like he is always in contention. He has seven top fives in his last 14 starts there (but just eight total). He had the second-most points at "The Paperclip" in 2020, and Penske has picked up right where it left off with the short-track rules package based on its Phoenix results. The 2018 champ is a lock for me.

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 23-4

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has five Cup wins at Martinsville, although he hasn't won there since the spring of 2015 -- a stretch of 11 races. Last year was the first time he finished outside the top 10 in both Martinsville races in one season. I wouldn't bank on that happening in 2021. Given his consistency (most points, six top fives in seven 2021 races), he'll be in for me. 


Brad Keselowski | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 6-1

Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has two victories at Martinsville, and the 10.2 average finish is his best among tracks left on the schedule. He has a streak of 10 straight top 10s here with nine of those finishes being in the top five. He has won the spring race the past two times in odd years, so it stands to reason that he would get the win on Saturday night, right?

Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: After a slow start to the season, Blaney has a win, two top fives, four top 10s and an average of 45.3 points in the last four races. YRB has been on a roll at Martinsville with four straight top fives and has earned the most points there over that stretch -- an average of 45.5. Ride the hot hand, especially with a sit track for him up next weekend.

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 11-2

Fastlane forecast: Truex has won two of the last three races at Martinsville and has led nearly half of the laps in those races (725 of 1,500). He already won with this rules package this year at Phoenix. I like Truex a little more for Richmond (if you could only have him for one of the next two races), but he's far from a bad play here.

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 6-1

Fastlane forecast: Elliott is the most recent Martinsville winner and has three top fives in his last four races there. He ran better in the latter half of 2020 with the short-track package than on intermediates and I have tailored my Elliott uses to be largely confined to road courses and short tracks. If you have heavily used him early -- like 5-6 uses left -- stack the bonuses.

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Fastlane forecast: Byron's Martinsville record is spotty -- a runner-up finish in the fall of 2019 and a top 10 last spring. His other four finishes? Twentieth or worse. Still, there's something to be said for a driver who is coming into his own this season. In his last five races -- including an eighth-place run at Phoenix with this rules package -- he's averaged 41.8 points.

Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Busch's two wins at Martinsville have come since 2016. From the fall of 2015 to the spring race of 2019, the two-time champion notched eight straight top-five finishes there. Since then, though, he has one top 10 in three races and the ninth-most fantasy points. He's a consideration for sure, but below the Penske trio, some Hendrick drivers and some teammates.

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: Bowman's had a topsy-turvy start to 2021 with. He had a pair of sixth-place finishes in both Martinsville races in 2020 -- good enough for the fourth-most points among the two races at the Virginia short track. I'd have Elliott and Byron slotted in ahead of him for this race, but he's likely to be a less owned option and that's intriguing.

Kurt Busch | View stats

Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 30-1

Fastlane forecast: The 2004 champion's overall body of work at Martinsville would say sit him -- four top fives, nine top 10s and an average finish of 19.7 in 41 starts to go with two wins. But the recent numbers show a driver that has figured things out at "The Paperclip" -- four top 10s in the last five races there -- three of those finishes inside the top six.

SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats

Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 66-1

Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto was one of seven drivers to nab top 10s in both Martinsville races last year and he averaged 29.5 points in the two races. Those are his two best finishes at the 0.526-mile track. After a slow start, DiBenedetto has found more solid footing with three straight top-15 finishes.

SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Newman | View stats

Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 80-1

Fastlane forecast: Grind-it-out, blue-collar racing is a staple of Martinsville and it's a hallmark of Newman's career. Newman's lone Martinsville win came in 2012, but he's reliably been a top-15 performer at the 0.526-miler. He's also coming off of his best finish in over a season.

SLEEPER PICK: Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 80-1

Fastlane forecast: Wallace finished 11th in the spring race last year and has two top 15s in his last three starts at Martinsville. The new team has been making progress in recent weeks -- Wallace spent much of the Bristol dirt race in the top 10 before a cut tire derailed his finish.

SLEEPER PICK: Daniel Suarez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 80-1

Fastlane forecast: Suarez has been extremely impressive the last two races -- a top five at Bristol and a top-10 run at Atlanta spoiled by a late pit-road penalty. He has two top 10s (one each with JGR and SHR) at Martinsville in eight starts. He's certainly on the radar moving forward as a potential play.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: Even when things have been going well for Harvick, Martinsville has been a tricky track for him. He has just one win there in 39 starts and five finishes outside the top 10 in his last 10 starts. I think the 4 will find its footing and be of better value later in the year, and I also don't love this track-driver combo anyway.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Of tracks where Larson has more than one start, Martinsville is his worst track based on average finish -- 22.4. He has just one top five and two top 10s there in 12 starts. Given the speed on the intermediates, he's an avoid for me with the potential of a use at Richmond next weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1

Fastlane forecast: Of active tracks on the Cup circuit, Martinsville is home to Stenhouse's worst average finish -- 26.2. He has just two top 10s there in 16 starts and has finished outside the top 20 in 10 of those starts. He's off to a nice start this season with a runner-up finish at Bristol, but this is a track at which to pass on him.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, William Byron; Garage: Brad Keselowski

Just missed the cut: Martin Truex Jr. (saving the usage), Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez.

Truex has a lot of strong tracks coming up -- Richmond, Dover, Charlotte to name a few -- so I may use him for several bonus picks while saving the use. It's not that I don't like the play here, but I think he's a better fit elsewhere where as others aren't as good a fit in other spots.


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with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday’s race at 4 p.m. ET on FS1.