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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Riding into the Roval with Elliott
By RJ Kraft | Friday, October 8, 2021
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
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Kyle Larson (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Larson has won two of the season's six road-course races – Sonoma and Watkins Glen. He has earned the most points on this track type for the season – an average of 41.2 points. He has led 52 laps in his two Charlotte Roval starts. If you have only two uses left, a use here to me is a non-starter since Larson is so valuable on 1.5-milers and there's two of those left. If you have three uses left, that would be something to consider.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-2
Fastlane forecast: Larson has won two of the season's six road-course races – Sonoma and Watkins Glen. He has earned the most points on this track type for the season – an average of 41.2 points. He has led 52 laps in his two Charlotte Roval starts. If you have only two uses left, a use here to me is a non-starter since Larson is so valuable on 1.5-milers and there's two of those left. If you have three uses left, that would be something to consider.
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
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Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 2-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is a two-time defending race winner at the Charlotte Roval. He has seven road-course wins – the most among active drivers – among his 13 Cup Series wins. Two of those road wins came this season as he has five top fives, the best average finish and the second-most points (average of 40.7 points) on that track type. Is there a reason not to use the reigning champ? Frankly, there is not, and that's at any available usage.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 2-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is a two-time defending race winner at the Charlotte Roval. He has seven road-course wins – the most among active drivers – among his 13 Cup Series wins. Two of those road wins came this season as he has five top fives, the best average finish and the second-most points (average of 40.7 points) on that track type. Is there a reason not to use the reigning champ? Frankly, there is not, and that's at any available usage.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex has scored the eighth-most points on road courses this season with three races of at least 35 points – one of those coming at the Daytona Road Course. He nearly won the first race at the Charlotte Roval in 2018 and has a pair of seventh-place finishes in the last two races there. His points position suggests he will be an aggressive stage points hunter as he looks to lock into the next round, and that makes him an ideal play.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex has scored the eighth-most points on road courses this season with three races of at least 35 points – one of those coming at the Daytona Road Course. He nearly won the first race at the Charlotte Roval in 2018 and has a pair of seventh-place finishes in the last two races there. His points position suggests he will be an aggressive stage points hunter as he looks to lock into the next round, and that makes him an ideal play.
James Gilbert | Getty Images
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Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano is one of four active drivers with top 10s in all three races at the Charlotte Roval with last year's runner-up finish as his best result. On the season, the 2018 champion has scored the fifth-most points on road courses – an average of 32.5 – with three races of at least 42 points. Given his position above the elimination line, I expect Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe to be in stage point gathering mode, making him worth the play at any usage.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano is one of four active drivers with top 10s in all three races at the Charlotte Roval with last year's runner-up finish as his best result. On the season, the 2018 champion has scored the fifth-most points on road courses – an average of 32.5 – with three races of at least 42 points. Given his position above the elimination line, I expect Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe to be in stage point gathering mode, making him worth the play at any usage.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Ryan Blaney (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney won the first race at the Charlotte Roval and has an average finish of 4.7 – tied for the best mark among non-Elliott regulars in the Cup Series. He has never finished worse than eighth in his three starts here. The three-time winner in 2021 is playable at all the remaining tracks, but I'd prioritize this race along with Texas and Martinsville if you have at least three uses available.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney won the first race at the Charlotte Roval and has an average finish of 4.7 – tied for the best mark among non-Elliott regulars in the Cup Series. He has never finished worse than eighth in his three starts here. The three-time winner in 2021 is playable at all the remaining tracks, but I'd prioritize this race along with Texas and Martinsville if you have at least three uses available.
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images
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AJ Allmendinger | View stats
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Entering this weekend, Allmendinger has won the last two Xfinity Series races on the Charlotte Roval. In one Cup start on the Roval, he finished seventh in 2018. In limited Cup duty for Kaulig this year, he has a win (at the Indianapolis Road Course), three top-seven finishes and an average of 31 points. Using 'Dinger feels like a steal of a use. Remember, even as a Xfinity regular, he will be scored in the game just like other driver.
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Entering this weekend, Allmendinger has won the last two Xfinity Series races on the Charlotte Roval. In one Cup start on the Roval, he finished seventh in 2018. In limited Cup duty for Kaulig this year, he has a win (at the Indianapolis Road Course), three top-seven finishes and an average of 31 points. Using 'Dinger feels like a steal of a use. Remember, even as a Xfinity regular, he will be scored in the game just like other driver.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Alex Bowman (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman is one of four active drivers to score top 10s in all three races at the Charlotte Roval. He has two top fives and has never finished outside the top eight at this track – with an average finish of 4.7. He has cooled off on road courses with three finishes outside the top 15 after scoring three top 10s on that track type to open the season. The concern with Bowman is, based on his points position, he needs the win, not a great points day.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman is one of four active drivers to score top 10s in all three races at the Charlotte Roval. He has two top fives and has never finished outside the top eight at this track – with an average finish of 4.7. He has cooled off on road courses with three finishes outside the top 15 after scoring three top 10s on that track type to open the season. The concern with Bowman is, based on his points position, he needs the win, not a great points day.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has two top 10s and has never finished worse than 11th at the Charlotte Roval with an average of 32.3 points per race. The red flag with the 2014 champion is his performance this season on road courses with the 19th-most points – only William Byron has scored fewer points on road courses among playoff drivers. The intrigue lies in his minus-9 position on the elimination line, making him a player for stage points.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has two top 10s and has never finished worse than 11th at the Charlotte Roval with an average of 32.3 points per race. The red flag with the 2014 champion is his performance this season on road courses with the 19th-most points – only William Byron has scored fewer points on road courses among playoff drivers. The intrigue lies in his minus-9 position on the elimination line, making him a player for stage points.
Logan Riely | Getty Images
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Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: In three starts at the Charlotte Roval, Busch has two top fives. Since being eliminated from the playoffs, the 2004 champion has posted back-to-back top-eight finishes, and his road-course record this season suggests that trend will continue. He has the third-most points on that track type with three races of more than 40 points and four top-six finishes. He could punt stage points, but his history of good finishes makes me willing to take the risk.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: In three starts at the Charlotte Roval, Busch has two top fives. Since being eliminated from the playoffs, the 2004 champion has posted back-to-back top-eight finishes, and his road-course record this season suggests that trend will continue. He has the third-most points on that track type with three races of more than 40 points and four top-six finishes. He could punt stage points, but his history of good finishes makes me willing to take the risk.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: On the season, Briscoe has scored the 14th-most points on road courses with three top 10s in those six races. The rookie also has three races of more than 30 points on road courses this season and was in the mix for the win at Indianapolis Road Course before his cutting the course penalty and contact with Denny Hamlin led to him getting parked. He won the first Xfinity race on the Charlotte Roval in 2018.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: On the season, Briscoe has scored the 14th-most points on road courses with three top 10s in those six races. The rookie also has three races of more than 30 points on road courses this season and was in the mix for the win at Indianapolis Road Course before his cutting the course penalty and contact with Denny Hamlin led to him getting parked. He won the first Xfinity race on the Charlotte Roval in 2018.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell won on a similar layout earlier this year at the Daytona Road Course for his first Cup Series win. He has the 13th-most points on road courses and he has scored at least 39 points in three of the six road races this season. His points position has him in close to a must-win spot, so he may not be as in on stage points as we'd like for this one.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell won on a similar layout earlier this year at the Daytona Road Course for his first Cup Series win. He has the 13th-most points on road courses and he has scored at least 39 points in three of the six road races this season. His points position has him in close to a must-win spot, so he may not be as in on stage points as we'd like for this one.
James Gilbert | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Ross Chastain | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Chastain has scored the 10th-most points on road courses this season and at least 30 points in four of the last five road races. In two Xfinity Series starts on the Charlotte Roval, he finished in the top 12 in both. Of the non-playoff drivers, he has been one of the strongest in the postseason races so far.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Chastain has scored the 10th-most points on road courses this season and at least 30 points in four of the last five road races. In two Xfinity Series starts on the Charlotte Roval, he finished in the top 12 in both. Of the non-playoff drivers, he has been one of the strongest in the postseason races so far.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has just one Cup start at the Charlotte Roval, and he finished 12th there last year. He does have two top-10 finishes in two Xfinity Series starts here. The intrigue with the second-year driver lies in his road-course performances this season with the seventh-most points scored on that track type, including four races with at least 34 points.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has just one Cup start at the Charlotte Roval, and he finished 12th there last year. He does have two top-10 finishes in two Xfinity Series starts here. The intrigue with the second-year driver lies in his road-course performances this season with the seventh-most points scored on that track type, including four races with at least 34 points.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch is a good road-course racer, but he has struggled on the Roval layouts on the schedule in recent years. Charlotte has been at the forefront of those struggles with an average finish of 33.0 in three starts and no finish better than 30th. On top of that, with two 1.5-milers on tap after this race and his series-best average finish at that track type, you want the two-time champion for those races.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch is a good road-course racer, but he has struggled on the Roval layouts on the schedule in recent years. Charlotte has been at the forefront of those struggles with an average finish of 33.0 in three starts and no finish better than 30th. On top of that, with two 1.5-milers on tap after this race and his series-best average finish at that track type, you want the two-time champion for those races.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has struggled on road courses this season with the 18th-most points and 18th-best average finish on that track type. Only two playoff drivers have fared worse in average finish on road courses this season. He has run OK at Charlotte with an average finish of 18.0 in three starts that includes a top five. He has been up and down all year that it's hard to trust him.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has struggled on road courses this season with the 18th-most points and 18th-best average finish on that track type. Only two playoff drivers have fared worse in average finish on road courses this season. He has run OK at Charlotte with an average finish of 18.0 in three starts that includes a top five. He has been up and down all year that it's hard to trust him.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Daniel Suarez | View stats
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: In the season's six road courses to date, Suarez has 58 points … total. That includes four finishes outside the top 30 in those races. His Charlotte Roval stats aren’t much better with three finishes outside the top 20 and an average finish of 26.7. Numbers don't lie, and these stats are something to run far away from.
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: In the season's six road courses to date, Suarez has 58 points … total. That includes four finishes outside the top 30 in those races. His Charlotte Roval stats aren’t much better with three finishes outside the top 20 and an average finish of 26.7. Numbers don't lie, and these stats are something to run far away from.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch; Garage: AJ Allmendinger
Just missed the cut: Kevin Harvick, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: Kevin Harvick, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
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