BACK TO GALLERIES
Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Stacking the deck with JGR at Richmond
By RJ Kraft | Published: April 16, 2021 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
1 of 18
NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
2 of 18
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: Both of Truex's 2021 victories have come with the 750-HP package. He has won two of the last three races at Richmond – a stretch that has seen him post a 1.3 average finish and 54.3 points per race – both series-best marks in that span. He's the driver I am building around for this weekend. I'd only consider a save if I was at five uses or fewer left.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: Both of Truex's 2021 victories have come with the 750-HP package. He has won two of the last three races at Richmond – a stretch that has seen him post a 1.3 average finish and 54.3 points per race – both series-best marks in that span. He's the driver I am building around for this weekend. I'd only consider a save if I was at five uses or fewer left.
3 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin continues to be the steady hand in the 2021 season despite no victories yet. He has a series-best seven top-five finishes. He has three victories at Richmond for his Cup career and six top-five finishes in his last eight races there. Only Darlington is a better regular-season track than Richmond for Hamlin based on average finish. We can worry about uses with him another week.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin continues to be the steady hand in the 2021 season despite no victories yet. He has a series-best seven top-five finishes. He has three victories at Richmond for his Cup career and six top-five finishes in his last eight races there. Only Darlington is a better regular-season track than Richmond for Hamlin based on average finish. We can worry about uses with him another week.
4 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Based on average finish, Richmond is his third-best track left in the regular season – only Darlington and Dover are better for him. He won at the 0.75-mile track in 2017 and has five top-seven finishes in his last seven starts there. In addition, he has run well with this rules package this year with a seventh at Phoenix and a top five at Martinsville – a track he has long struggled at.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Based on average finish, Richmond is his third-best track left in the regular season – only Darlington and Dover are better for him. He won at the 0.75-mile track in 2017 and has five top-seven finishes in his last seven starts there. In addition, he has run well with this rules package this year with a seventh at Phoenix and a top five at Martinsville – a track he has long struggled at.
5 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano bounced back from a subpar first half of the Martinsville race to finish sixth. I garaged him due to a lack of stage points and will put that found use to use immediately. The 2018 champion has two wins at Richmond, has finished outside the top 10 just twice in his last 13 starts there and this track stands as his best on average finish of what is left in the regular season.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano bounced back from a subpar first half of the Martinsville race to finish sixth. I garaged him due to a lack of stage points and will put that found use to use immediately. The 2018 champion has two wins at Richmond, has finished outside the top 10 just twice in his last 13 starts there and this track stands as his best on average finish of what is left in the regular season.
6 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Two of Elliott's 2021 top fives have come with the 750-HP package (Phoenix and Martinsville). Richmond has been kind of an in-between track for the reigning champ in his Cup career. He has three top fives and four top 10s in 10 starts there with a slew of top 15s. I like Kansas, Dover and Charlotte more as plays for him as well as the five road courses left in the regular season.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Two of Elliott's 2021 top fives have come with the 750-HP package (Phoenix and Martinsville). Richmond has been kind of an in-between track for the reigning champ in his Cup career. He has three top fives and four top 10s in 10 starts there with a slew of top 15s. I like Kansas, Dover and Charlotte more as plays for him as well as the five road courses left in the regular season.
7 of 18
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: An uncharacteristic Martinsville result for Keselowski is going to leave him starting in the back half of the field at Richmond. However, his record there is pretty solid with two wins and he has the second-most points in the last three races there. In his last 10 races at Richmond, he's finished outside the top 10 just twice (both were 11th-place finishes).
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: An uncharacteristic Martinsville result for Keselowski is going to leave him starting in the back half of the field at Richmond. However, his record there is pretty solid with two wins and he has the second-most points in the last three races there. In his last 10 races at Richmond, he's finished outside the top 10 just twice (both were 11th-place finishes).
8 of 18
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron's Richmond stats scream run away – no top 10s, three finishes of 20th-or-worse. However, he has only been in the Cup Series for three-plus years and his run of six straight top 10s has come at tracks (for the most part) that he didn't have much success at before this year. In the last six races, he has averaged 41.8 points – with three of those races using the 750-HP package.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron's Richmond stats scream run away – no top 10s, three finishes of 20th-or-worse. However, he has only been in the Cup Series for three-plus years and his run of six straight top 10s has come at tracks (for the most part) that he didn't have much success at before this year. In the last six races, he has averaged 41.8 points – with three of those races using the 750-HP package.
9 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch holds the best average finish among the field at Richmond (6.8) and his six wins there are the most among active drivers. It's his best track - top fives in 60 percent of his starts and top 10s in nearly 77 percent of his starts. In his last six Richmond starts, he has finished no worse than ninth. His battling back from multiple incidents for a top 10 at Richmond was an encouraging sign.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch holds the best average finish among the field at Richmond (6.8) and his six wins there are the most among active drivers. It's his best track - top fives in 60 percent of his starts and top 10s in nearly 77 percent of his starts. In his last six Richmond starts, he has finished no worse than ninth. His battling back from multiple incidents for a top 10 at Richmond was an encouraging sign.
10 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has top 10s in 75 percent of the 2021 races run. Yes, he's not scoring the volume of points we are used to but he's getting solid end results. For all of that's been made of his so-so short-track runs, that hasn't been the case at Richmond. While his three wins there pre-date his SHR tenure, he does have eight top-seven finishes in his last nine starts there.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has top 10s in 75 percent of the 2021 races run. Yes, he's not scoring the volume of points we are used to but he's getting solid end results. For all of that's been made of his so-so short-track runs, that hasn't been the case at Richmond. While his three wins there pre-date his SHR tenure, he does have eight top-seven finishes in his last nine starts there.
11 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's overall Richmond resume doesn't stand out but when we look closer at his last four races there it tells a different story. He has three top-six finishes and the eighth-most points in his last four races at the 0.75-mile track. He has made major strides on short tracks in recent years.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's overall Richmond resume doesn't stand out but when we look closer at his last four races there it tells a different story. He has three top-six finishes and the eighth-most points in his last four races at the 0.75-mile track. He has made major strides on short tracks in recent years.
12 of 18
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has just one Cup start at Richmond – an 11th-place finish last fall. But similar to his RCR teammate, he has found his footing of late on short tracks. He comes into this race with two straight top 10s on the 2021 Cup season – both at the short tracks of Bristol dirt and Martinsville.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick has just one Cup start at Richmond – an 11th-place finish last fall. But similar to his RCR teammate, he has found his footing of late on short tracks. He comes into this race with two straight top 10s on the 2021 Cup season – both at the short tracks of Bristol dirt and Martinsville.
13 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell has one Cup start at Richmond – a 15th-place effort last fall. However, this was a solid track for him in Xfinity action (three wins) and he has made a solid sophomore jump. The 750-HP package has agreed with him so far with a win (at the Daytona Road Course) and two additional top 10s with one coming last weekend at Martinsville.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell has one Cup start at Richmond – a 15th-place effort last fall. However, this was a solid track for him in Xfinity action (three wins) and he has made a solid sophomore jump. The 750-HP package has agreed with him so far with a win (at the Daytona Road Course) and two additional top 10s with one coming last weekend at Martinsville.
14 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: If you believe in (insert Larry Mac voice) trends, Newman is due to get at least one top 10 at Richmond in 2021. In 2017 and 2019, he scored top 10s in both races. In 2018 and 2020, he did not. For his career, he has a win and 20 top 10s in 37 starts here.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: If you believe in (insert Larry Mac voice) trends, Newman is due to get at least one top 10 at Richmond in 2021. In 2017 and 2019, he scored top 10s in both races. In 2018 and 2020, he did not. For his career, he has a win and 20 top 10s in 37 starts here.
15 of 18
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has been on a heater of late with an average of 45.4 points in the last five races. The stats say that roll comes to an end at Richmond. The 0.75-mile track is Blaney's worst by average finish (24.8) and he has yet to finish in the top 15 in nine starts. Could he find it there on Sunday? Sure, but the track numbers say the use isn't worth the risk.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has been on a heater of late with an average of 45.4 points in the last five races. The stats say that roll comes to an end at Richmond. The 0.75-mile track is Blaney's worst by average finish (24.8) and he has yet to finish in the top 15 in nine starts. Could he find it there on Sunday? Sure, but the track numbers say the use isn't worth the risk.
16 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Chris Buescher | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher is off to a steady start in 2021. He has had surprising intermediate speed and has grinded out top 15s on short tracks the last two races. Richmond has been a bugaboo for him though. In nine starts, he has an average finish of 26.7 – his worst on the circuit – and no finish better than 17th. Next weekend at Talladega represents an opportunity with him.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher is off to a steady start in 2021. He has had surprising intermediate speed and has grinded out top 15s on short tracks the last two races. Richmond has been a bugaboo for him though. In nine starts, he has an average finish of 26.7 – his worst on the circuit – and no finish better than 17th. Next weekend at Talladega represents an opportunity with him.
17 of 18
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: If there's trouble on the track, Almirola has had a way finding it in 2021. He has four finishes of 30th-or-worse and just one finish inside the top 15 through eight races. His Richmond stats are OK, but until the 10 car and the non-Kevin Harvick arm of the SHR camp for that matter show any sort of solid finishes, we’re staying away at non-superspeedways.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: If there's trouble on the track, Almirola has had a way finding it in 2021. He has four finishes of 30th-or-worse and just one finish inside the top 15 through eight races. His Richmond stats are OK, but until the 10 car and the non-Kevin Harvick arm of the SHR camp for that matter show any sort of solid finishes, we’re staying away at non-superspeedways.
18 of 18
James Gilbert | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch; Garage: Brad Keselowski
Just missed the cut: William Byron, Austin Dillon, Kevin Harvick and Christopher Bell
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: William Byron, Austin Dillon, Kevin Harvick and Christopher Bell
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on FOX.
Download the free to play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.