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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Hard to the hole with Hamlin for Daytona 500
By RJ Kraft | Friday, February 12, 2021
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
2 of 19
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Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Normally we stay away from the studs at restrictor-plate tracks, but Hamlin is the exception to that rule. He has won three of the last five Daytona 500s, including the last two. He was the only driver to nab top fives in all four superspeedway races in 2020 and averaged 39.8 points in those races – most among all competitors.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Normally we stay away from the studs at restrictor-plate tracks, but Hamlin is the exception to that rule. He has won three of the last five Daytona 500s, including the last two. He was the only driver to nab top fives in all four superspeedway races in 2020 and averaged 39.8 points in those races – most among all competitors.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
3 of 19
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Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano's one of the better drivers on superspeedways, and he does have a Daytona 500 victory (2015) to his name. His 2020 crash-induced exit snapped a run of five straight top-six finishes in The Great American Race. I like Hamlin a bit more than a Logano play, and I wouldn't use both for this race. Roster one and utilize your bonus picks for the other.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano's one of the better drivers on superspeedways, and he does have a Daytona 500 victory (2015) to his name. His 2020 crash-induced exit snapped a run of five straight top-six finishes in The Great American Race. I like Hamlin a bit more than a Logano play, and I wouldn't use both for this race. Roster one and utilize your bonus picks for the other.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
4 of 19
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Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney earned the second-most points on superspeedways in 2020 with an average of 38.3 points. He nabbed two top-six finishes at Daytona in 2020 and has three top-seven finishes in his last four Daytona 500 starts. This play is intriguing to me because the 2021 schedule changes open up some different places to use YRB.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney earned the second-most points on superspeedways in 2020 with an average of 38.3 points. He nabbed two top-six finishes at Daytona in 2020 and has three top-seven finishes in his last four Daytona 500 starts. This play is intriguing to me because the 2021 schedule changes open up some different places to use YRB.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
5 of 19
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Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman's pole position for Sunday gives him four straight front-row starts in The Great American Race. He earned the fifth-most points on superspeedways in 2020 among 2021 full-time drivers. He also has the second-most points over the last six Daytona races. Given his strong finish to 2020, though, a save isn't a bad idea since we should come close to the full 10 uses with him.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman's pole position for Sunday gives him four straight front-row starts in The Great American Race. He earned the fifth-most points on superspeedways in 2020 among 2021 full-time drivers. He also has the second-most points over the last six Daytona races. Given his strong finish to 2020, though, a save isn't a bad idea since we should come close to the full 10 uses with him.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
6 of 19
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William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron is the most recent winner in Daytona as he won the 2020 regular-season finale for his first Cup win. He also has a runner-up in that race, and he earned a 2020 win in Duel 2. While he finished last in the 2020 Daytona 500, he finished no worse than 11th in the remaining three superspeedway races last year with an average of 36.7 points in those races.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron is the most recent winner in Daytona as he won the 2020 regular-season finale for his first Cup win. He also has a runner-up in that race, and he earned a 2020 win in Duel 2. While he finished last in the 2020 Daytona 500, he finished no worse than 11th in the remaining three superspeedway races last year with an average of 36.7 points in those races.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's dominating performance in the first Bluegreen Vacations Duel race was a reminder of how good he is at superspeedway racing. He nearly won the 2018 Daytona 500 and won the summer race in 2014. While the bulk of his success has come at Talladega, he is certainly a worthwhile option for Sunday.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola's dominating performance in the first Bluegreen Vacations Duel race was a reminder of how good he is at superspeedway racing. He nearly won the 2018 Daytona 500 and won the summer race in 2014. While the bulk of his success has come at Talladega, he is certainly a worthwhile option for Sunday.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
8 of 19
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse nabbed the pole position for last year's Daytona 500 and led 24 laps in the event. He has a win, two top fives and three top 10s in 17 Daytona starts. His Talladega record is better, but he will certainly mix it up as he always does in this style of racing. Despite no top 10s in his last six Daytona starts, he has the eighth-most points in that stretch.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse nabbed the pole position for last year's Daytona 500 and led 24 laps in the event. He has a win, two top fives and three top 10s in 17 Daytona starts. His Talladega record is better, but he will certainly mix it up as he always does in this style of racing. Despite no top 10s in his last six Daytona starts, he has the eighth-most points in that stretch.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
9 of 19
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Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Wallace is a trendy pick entering the 2021 season. 23XI is a new team but aligned with JGR. Given his past Daytona numbers – two top fives and five top 15s in seven starts – I like the thought of a play here while waiting to see how he does on intermediates as we move deeper into the year.
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Wallace is a trendy pick entering the 2021 season. 23XI is a new team but aligned with JGR. Given his past Daytona numbers – two top fives and five top 15s in seven starts – I like the thought of a play here while waiting to see how he does on intermediates as we move deeper into the year.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
10 of 19
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Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman typically lurks in the back; while it means he won't get stage points, it does usually mean he'll be there at the end as evidenced by his battling for the lead on the final lap of the 2020 Daytona 500. He has five top 10s in his last seven Daytona starts and the seventh-most points in the last six races at Daytona.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman typically lurks in the back; while it means he won't get stage points, it does usually mean he'll be there at the end as evidenced by his battling for the lead on the final lap of the 2020 Daytona 500. He has five top 10s in his last seven Daytona starts and the seventh-most points in the last six races at Daytona.
James Gilbert | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher is one of three drivers to nab at least three top 10s in the 2020 superspeedways – Hamlin and Blaney were the others. His average of 32.8 points in these races was the third best in 2020. Half of Buescher's six top fives in Cup have come at Daytona, and five of his 20 top 10s have as well. He's an underrated superspeedway play.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Buescher is one of three drivers to nab at least three top 10s in the 2020 superspeedways – Hamlin and Blaney were the others. His average of 32.8 points in these races was the third best in 2020. Half of Buescher's six top fives in Cup have come at Daytona, and five of his 20 top 10s have as well. He's an underrated superspeedway play.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Two of McDowell's three career Cup top fives and half of his 12 top 10s have come at Daytona. In his last seven starts there, he has one finish outside the top 15. Over the last six Daytona races, he has the third-most points in the field – more than each of the three Penske drivers and Kevin Harvick. David Ragan is a possible option as well, but I'd go with McDowell over him.
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Two of McDowell's three career Cup top fives and half of his 12 top 10s have come at Daytona. In his last seven starts there, he has one finish outside the top 15. Over the last six Daytona races, he has the third-most points in the field – more than each of the three Penske drivers and Kevin Harvick. David Ragan is a possible option as well, but I'd go with McDowell over him.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Ross Chastain | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: I'm less bullish on Chastain than others since I didn't find his fill-in stint with Roush to be anything notable. That said, Daytona is intriguing for him as he has his lone Cup top 10 there (the 2019 Daytona 500) and a win and five top 10s in his last seven Xfinity starts at the 2.5-mile track.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: I'm less bullish on Chastain than others since I didn't find his fill-in stint with Roush to be anything notable. That said, Daytona is intriguing for him as he has his lone Cup top 10 there (the 2019 Daytona 500) and a win and five top 10s in his last seven Xfinity starts at the 2.5-mile track.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Corey LaJoie | View stats
Spire Motorsports, No. 7 Chevrolet
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: LaJoie is an intriguing sleeper option. He has top 10s in two of his last three Daytona starts. His new ride with Spire has an alliance with Chip Ganassi Racing, so it's easily the best Cup equipment he has had. If you were fielding a lineup largely of sleeper plays, he'd be near the front of my list.
Spire Motorsports, No. 7 Chevrolet
Odds: 200-1
Fastlane forecast: LaJoie is an intriguing sleeper option. He has top 10s in two of his last three Daytona starts. His new ride with Spire has an alliance with Chip Ganassi Racing, so it's easily the best Cup equipment he has had. If you were fielding a lineup largely of sleeper plays, he'd be near the front of my list.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Austin Cindric | View stats
Team Penske, No. 33 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: There are several potential partial starters worth deploying in this race, but I like Cindric the best of the bunch. Penske's power on superspeedways is well-documented, and this feels like a good value play with him in the race. In three of his last four Xfinity starts at Daytona, the 2020 Xfinity champ has finished in the top eight.
Team Penske, No. 33 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: There are several potential partial starters worth deploying in this race, but I like Cindric the best of the bunch. Penske's power on superspeedways is well-documented, and this feels like a good value play with him in the race. In three of his last four Xfinity starts at Daytona, the 2020 Xfinity champ has finished in the top eight.
Christian Petersen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2020 champion is so valuable elsewhere – most notably road courses, short tracks and several 1.5-milers – not to mention his Daytona numbers aren't that strong. His lone top five there came in the 2020 regular-season finale, but he also has five finishes of 32nd or worse in 10 starts.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2020 champion is so valuable elsewhere – most notably road courses, short tracks and several 1.5-milers – not to mention his Daytona numbers aren't that strong. His lone top five there came in the 2020 regular-season finale, but he also has five finishes of 32nd or worse in 10 starts.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick is a stout play nearly everywhere, but he is especially strong on intermediates, and that is what I will be saving the bulk of my "Happy" uses for. He does have two Daytona wins, but he also has just one top five in his last nine starts at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick is a stout play nearly everywhere, but he is especially strong on intermediates, and that is what I will be saving the bulk of my "Happy" uses for. He does have two Daytona wins, but he also has just one top five in his last nine starts at the 2.5-mile superspeedway.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex has never won on a superspeedway and holds just five top fives (three at Daytona) and 13 top 10s (five at Daytona) in 63 starts at the track type. Add in his value on intermediates and road courses and a save out of the gate makes a lot of sense. Ditto for Kyle Busch.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex has never won on a superspeedway and holds just five top fives (three at Daytona) and 13 top 10s (five at Daytona) in 63 starts at the track type. Add in his value on intermediates and road courses and a save out of the gate makes a lot of sense. Ditto for Kyle Busch.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Aric Almirola, Ricky Stenhouse Jr.; Garage: Bubba Wallace.
Just missed the roster: Ryan Newman, Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric and Matt DiBenedetto.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Just missed the roster: Ryan Newman, Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric and Matt DiBenedetto.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 2:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
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