Fantasy Fastlane: Ready to roll with the Busch brothers at Auto Club

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 7-2

Fastlane forecast: The reigning Cup champion won at Auto Club in 2017 and has three top-two finishes in seven starts there. The bad is, in three of his four other starts at Auto Club, he has finished outside the top 20. Still, high-wear tracks are very much in Larson's wheelhouse and the prime places to use him are going to be the intermediates and road courses. This is a good spot for our first use of the year with "Yung Money."

Kyle Busch | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: Busch is a four-time winner at Auto Club with the most recent of those victories coming in 2019. In his last nine starts at the 2-mile track, he has finished outside the top three just twice. Over the last three races there, he has averaged 50.3 points per race – the most in Sunday's field. Like we noted last week, the return of practice and qualifying is only going to make the two-time champ stronger. This is one of the must-use tracks for "Rowdy."

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 10-1

Fastlane forecast: Auto Club has been a solid track for the Penske program, and Blaney's body of work reflects that. He has three top 10s in five starts, and one of the non-top 10s saw him spend the bulk of the afternoon in the top three before a tire came apart (in 2020). He has the sixth-most points at this track over the last three races. Let's not forget about YRB’s penchant for winning on big tracks -- five of his wins have come on speedways/superspeedways at least 2 miles long.

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 8-1

Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has four top-seven finishes in his last five Auto Club starts. Over the last three races there, he has the fifth-most points and is tied for the third-best average finish. It is concerning that he has just two top fives and eight top 10s there in 19 starts, and when I use Hamlin, I expect a top-five level of performance. But there is something to be said for the uptick in performance at this track in recent years.

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 7-1

Fastlane forecast: Elliott's 9.4 average finish at Auto Club is best among drivers in Sunday's field. He has one top five and three top 10s in his five starts there but just five laps led. Over the last three races there, he has two finishes outside the top 10. The overall numbers support a play, but it may be more beneficial to slow play Elliott out of the gate with a string of short tracks and road courses dotting the schedule later in the year.

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: In eight starts at Auto Club with Team Penske, Logano has five top fives, six top 10s and only one finish worse than 12th. That's a solid record even if he has yet to win at this track. In his last three starts there, the 2018 champion has the third-most points. For those who used Logano at Daytona, he's likely to be heavily in the mix early in the season with Auto Club, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Richmond and Martinsville among his strong tracks.

Brad Keselowski | View stats

Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Fastlane forecast: The numbers without question favor a play here. Keselowski has a win and five top-five finishes in his last six Auto Club starts. He also has four straight top-five finishes and the second-most points over the last four races there. Now for the but…that all came with Team Penske. RFK has had one top 10 here since 2015. This and Las Vegas – two tracks Keselowski has historically fared well at – will be early tests for RFK.

Kurt Busch | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 33-1

Fastlane forecast: By in large, high-wear tracks like Auto Club are right in Busch’s wheelhouse and his stats at the 2-mile track back that up. He has six top 10s in his last nine starts and also a win here from 2003. While he is tied for seventh-most points at this track in the last three races, he is tied for the fifth-best average finish. Of active tracks on the circuit with more than a start, Auto Club stands as his best track with an average finish of 12.2.

SLEEPER PICK: Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 40-1

Fastlane forecast: In his first start in the No. 2, all Cindric did was go out and win the 2022 Daytona 500. The rookie is a definite play on road courses and likely superspeedways. But let's also keep him in mind here. Penske has run well at this track in recent years, and Cindric has two top-six finishes in his last two Xfinity starts here.

SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

Fastlane forecast: Reddick has one Cup start here from his rookie season in 2020 where he nabbed an 11th-place finish. The real reason he is a sleeper to watch here is his propensity to perform well at high-wear tracks and Auto Club is among the rougher surfaces on the Cup circuit – Miami is the roughest after the Atlanta repave and we know how good Reddick is at Miami.

SLEEPER PICK: Harrison Burton | View stats

Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 100-1

Fastlane forecast: Burton will be making just the third Cup start of his career Sunday at Auto Club. But in his lone Xfinity start here in 2020, he won the race for his first victory in any national series. The 21 car has had two top-13 finishes here in the last four races at Auto Club, so perhaps Burton’s quick study ways will continue to carry over to the premier series.

SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 80-1

Fastlane forecast: In the last three races at Auto Club, Almirola is tied for the seventh-most points and holds the seventh-best average finish in that same stretch. He has back-to-back top 10s and 35-plus point races here as well. The 2021 season was a bumpy one for Almirola, but he got off to a solid start in 2022 – his final full-time season – with a quiet Daytona top-five finish.

WAIT AND SEE: Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Fastlane forecast: Bowman blitzed the field in the last race run at Auto Club (that was 2020 since due to COVID-19, Auto Club didn’t host a race in 2021). That performance was electrifying, but it's also his only top five or top 10 here. His next best result was a 13th-place finish in 2018. As I noted in last week’s write-up, I had a tough time figuring Bowman out last year and so he will be someone I keep a close eye on when it comes to practice times.

WAIT AND SEE: Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 9-1

Fastlane forecast: Truex has been solid at Auto Club the last four visits with a win, another top five, three top 10s and the fourth-most points over that stretch. So why is he not a must-start? The two top fives in that stretch are his only top fives in 20 starts at the 2-mile track and both of these came with Cole Pearn atop the box. Truex only has seven top 10s here as well, and I expect more than that when I plug him in.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kevin Harvick | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No, 4 Ford

Odds: 14-1

Fastlane forecast: In Harvick's SHR tenure (dating back to 2014), Auto Club is his second-worst non-superspeedway track by average finish among active tracks with more than one start. His one win there came with RCR in 2011, and if you look at his last eight races there and believe in trends, he's due for a finish outside the top 10 on Sunday. I'm leaning toward slow playing Harvick early on (except for Phoenix) unless we see major speed.

STAY AWAY FROM: Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 100-1

Fastlane forecast: In three starts at Auto Club, Wallace has never finished better than 20th and owns an average finish of 25.7. He does have a top 10 at Auto Club's sister track – Michigan. Wallace came oh-so-close to winning the Daytona 500, and his five most recent top 10s have come at tracks 2.5-miles or bigger. Until he shows consistency on intermediates, he is a superspeedway-only play for me.

My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Kurt Busch; Garage: Joey Logano

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Just missed the cut: Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski and Austin Cindric.


Check back for our “Fantasy Update” piece on Saturday for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.