Fantasy Fastlane: Richmond master Martin Truex Jr. needs to find Victory Lane

Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM (as of Thursday).



MUST START:
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19
Odds: 6-1
Kevin Harvick’s 65-race winless streak came to an end at the wrong time for Truex, with just three races remaining in the regular season. The No. 19 team is fourth in regular season points, yet on the outside of the playoff bubble. Good thing is, since scoring his first short track win at Richmond in 2019 he’s been unstoppable, picking up two more trophies and entering the race with seven consecutive top fives. Over the last 11 Richmond races, Truex has led 1,237 laps — more than three full races.

MUST START:
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
With four career victories at his home track, Hamlin is always a go-to at Richmond for fantasy lineups. That shouldn’t change this week, given he won the first Next Gen race at the facility earlier this year. Maybe this will be the week the No. 11 team can clean up its pit road woes and get its third win of 2022.

MUST START:
Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Since Bell’s first Xfinity Series start at Richmond (finished sixth), he’s had a knack for getting around the three-quarter-mile racetrack, earning three wins in five starts int the series. Earlier this year, he paced the field for a career-high 63 laps en route to a sixth-place finish. And the last winner on a similar style track to Richmond? You guessed it, Bell at New Hampshire.

MUST START:
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 14-1
With Harvick finally getting back into the Winner’s Circle at Michigan, don’t put it out of the question that he goes on a 2011 Tony Stewart-esuque run. Using the same strategy as Hamlin did by splitting the final stage into thirds, the No. 4 car finished runner-up at Richmond in April.

SLEEPER PICK:
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Historically, Richmond and Blaney have been incompatible. In 12 starts at the track, he’s tallied just two top 10s, both coming in the last calendar year. In April, Blaney won the pole, dominated the first stage, and led a race-high 128 laps. Sitting second in points, just 19 markers above the cutline, it’s time for the No. 12 driver to have a career run at Richmond.

SLEEPER PICK:
William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Could this finally be the week that Byron stops his four-month skid? It’s plausible, given the No. 24 car was passed for the lead – after pacing the field for 122 laps – on old tires with a handful of laps remaining in April, dropping to third. Byron was stout at short tracks at the beginning of the year, so maybe he returns to form this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK:
Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
For years, Dillon considered Richmond his worst track on the Cup schedule. That changed with a sixth-place finish in the fall of 2018. Including that race, the No. 3 car has five top-10 finishes in his last seven Richmond starts, also including a 10th earlier this year. In this race two years ago, he led a career-high 55 laps and finished fourth.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
The hottest hand in NASCAR currently is Wallace, who’s on a streak of four straight top-10 finishes with an average finish of 4.5 in that span. But the heartbreak of finishing runner-up at Michigan could be tough to get over, knowing that was likely his best chance to win prior to the playoffs. In eight starts in the Commonwealth, he’s finished better than 25th just one time.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Prior to an Xfinity Series race in 2019 at Richmond, Briscoe told me he struggled to get around Richmond. He wasn’t sure what it was about the track, but he couldn’t get a grip on it. The Indiana native picked up his first Cup win at a similar track, Phoenix, but has just a pair of top-10 results in the 19 races since. Avoid the No. 14 car this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Brad Keselowski | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Keselowski’s track record at Richmond speaks for itself: Two wins, 12 top 10s, 1,177 laps led in 25 starts. The No. 6 team also earned its best finish of the season at New Hampshire, another track Keselowski has had recent success at. But it’s hard to see the team turning the corner at Richmond, though he finished a respectable 13th in April.

MY LINEUP: Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch
GARAGE: William Byron