Fantasy Fastlane: Road-course aces ready to rise at Mexico City

After nearly a year of anticipation, it's finally race weekend in Mexico City. The last time the Cup Series competed outside the continental United States was in 1958, when Richard Petty made his debut at Toronto. Of the 37 drivers entered this weekend, only Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski have competed at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in stock cars, dating back between 2005 and 2008. It would be plausible to expect the top road-course drivers to rise to the occasion this weekend.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. It's a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Shane van Gisbergen | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 88 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-10

The last time the Cup Series visited a new road course, it was SVG who stood tall in the streets of Chicago. The New Zealander was hired to win on road courses. He sits 33rd in the regular-season standings, and only a victory will secure him a postseason berth. In the lone road course of the season at Circuit of The Americas, Van Gisbergen ranked third in speed and passing, according to Racing Insights. An area of concern will be restarts, where he fell outside the top 10.

MUST START:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

The two-time Cup champion is the most recent winner at Mexico City in the Xfinity Series, leading 22 of 80 laps in 2008. Busch was a handful of laps away at COTA from snapping his current winless drought but dropped to fifth in the waning laps. He was the fastest overall car at COTA, which could bode well for him this weekend.

MUST START:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 10-1

Elliott has been the victor in three of the last five road courses that were new to the Cup schedule (Road America, 2021; COTA, 2021; Daytona Road Course, 2020). Those were all in the Generation 6 car as he remains the lone Hendrick driver to not yet win at a road course in the Next Gen era. The Elliott of old was on display at COTA, however, rebounding to a fourth-place finish after being spun on the initial start.

MUST START:

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Before having a loose wheel late at COTA, Allmendinger was a factor for a top-five finish. He dropped to 30th in the final rundown after pacing as the sixth-quickest car during the race. You can't count Allmendinger out on road courses as he's the winningest driver in Xfinity Series history when turning left and right, and all three of his Cup wins have come on road courses. He also has two Champ Car World Series starts at Mexico City, with a runner-up finish (2005).

SLEEPER PICK:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 16-1

Buescher has become a menace at road courses in the Next Gen era, with 14 top-10 finishes and an average finish of 8.7, leading all drivers. Even more promising is that he's tallied the fourth-most points at road courses in the Next Gen era.

SLEEPER PICK:

Michael McDowell | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 71 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

With three road courses in the next five weeks, McDowell could loom large in the playoff picture. In 18 Next Gen starts on road courses, he has 10 top 10s, including a dominant victory at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course (2023). He has experience at Mexico City, finishing 11th in his lone Champ Car World Series start (2005) and winning in the Grand-Am Rolex Sports Car Series later that year.

SLEEPER PICK:

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

One of the biggest story lines entering the weekend will be the heroic welcome Suárez will receive upon arrival to his native land. It will be a storybook ending if the No. 99 car is in the mix on Sunday afternoon. Suárez is an underrated road-course competitor, winning in 2022 at Sonoma. But after a strong start to the Next Gen era on road courses, he has one top 10 in his last 13 starts. Suárez is a three-time winner at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in the NASCAR México Series (2012, 2013 and 2014).

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 55-1

Normally, Logano excels at new race tracks, winning recent first attempts at the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt race (2021), World Wide Technology Raceway (2022) and the LA Coliseum (2022). This is a different animal, though, spanning 15 turns and a tight stadium section. Logano has had past success on road courses, but he has just one top 10 in his last six starts (eighth at the Charlotte Roval last fall).

STAY AWAY FROM:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

Odds: 150-1

Ranking 32nd in the championship standings, it's win or bust for the 2012 champion over the final 11 races of the regular season. Unfortunately for Keselowski, four of those events are at road courses, and he has a single top 10 in his last 24 attempts. In two Xfinity races here, he has a best effort of eighth (2008).

STAY AWAY FROM:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 150-1

Wallace has improved his craft on road courses, qualifying on the front row earlier this year at COTA. The results have been limited, however, with a ninth-place effort last fall at the Charlotte Roval being his lone top 10 in the last 12 road-course events. Save a use on Wallace this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Busch vs. Ross Chastain

The closest Busch has come in 2025 to snapping the longest winless streak of his career was leading a race-high 42 laps at COTA in early March. The No. 8 team has been looking forward to the upcoming road course stretch. Chastain is always a viable threat on road courses, winning his first Cup race at COTA in 2022. Leaning Busch this weekend as he had the fastest overall car in the only road course event of 2025.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Daniel Suárez vs. Shane van Gisbergen

Suárez is the hometown hero, growing up in Monterrey, Mexico, less than 600 miles away from Mexico City. But take SVG in this matchup as he will have minimal patience, knowing that he has four prime chances to win over the next two months. He should be the favorite entering the weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Alex Bowman vs. Michael McDowell

This is a sneaky battle because Bowman is a reputable road course competitor, winning last year at the Chicago Street Course and has five top-10 finishes in the last nine road course races. The advantage goes to McDowell, though there is limited data of his road course prowess with Spire. He knows how to make speed in braking zones, though, so let's roll with the No. 71 car.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ty Gibbs vs. Chase Elliott

It wasn't long ago that it seemed imminent Gibbs would be a Cup winner, with it possibly coming at a road course. He had six top 10s in his first 10 road-course starts but has finished 22nd or worse in four of his last five attempts. And while Elliott is winless at road courses in his first 17 attempts in the Next Gen era, the No. 9 car has an average finish of 10.2. In 36 career road course starts, he has a splendid average finish of ninth. Take that to the bank this weekend in this matchup.

MY LINEUP: Shane van Gisbergen, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, AJ Allmendinger, Chris Buescher.

GARAGE: Michael McDowell.

36 for 36: I'm in a dilemma this weekend, thinking ahead to other upcoming road courses and how drivers perform. The tight bubble battle might make for cutoff drivers to stay out for points at the stage breaks. Going to roll with McDowell entering the weekend but could easily be swayed elsewhere following practice and qualifying. This would be a good week to make sure to see the update in What to Watch come Saturday.