Fantasy Fastlane: Rock chalk at Kansas with Hendrick, Toyota

Last weekend’s treacherous race at Texas Motor Speedway went as expected —unpredictably. My entire lineup, which looked sporty early, ended up being involved in at least one incident. This weekend’s event at Kansas Speedway should be a bit more forseeable. Hendrick Motorsports, as well as Toyota's entries, have dominated in recent seasons, though last year’s spring event was a certified banger that resulted in the closest finish in Cup Series history.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 17-4

Literally by the slimmest of margins, where an actual photo determined the victor, Larson enters Kansas as the defending winner. Until being involved in an early accident in the postseason race here, the No. 5 team had been nearly unstoppable in the "Sunflower State" since forming in 2021. In five of his eight Kansas starts with Hendrick, Larson has led more than 60 laps. He has a pair of victories in that timeframe with five top-five finishes. According to Racing Insights, Larson also has a 29% win percentage on 1.5-mile tracks since joining the team.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 17-2

Hamlin has finished better than eighth in all six Next Gen starts at Kansas, including five top fives and one victory (2023). Since 2019, he’s won three of the last 11 races at the intermediate venue. With consecutive finishes outside the top 20, including becoming a fireball at Texas, the No. 11 team needs a turnaround weekend.

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 12-1

The last time the Cup Series visited Kansas, Bell led a race-high 122 laps from the pole position. Qualifying will be an interesting study for the No. 20 team, as Bell is on a streak of three consecutive pole awards at Kansas. He’s still searching for his first victory here but has seven top 10s in 10 starts with a pair of top fives.

MUST START:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

With how strongly Bowman has run at Kansas (his 10 top 10s here are the most he has at a single track), this weekend could potentially be the place that gets his 2025 season trending back in the right direction. He has top 10s in all five of his Next Gen starts at Kansas (missed the spring 2023 event due to injury) with an average finish of 7.2 in that stretch. The highlight of those came in the 2022 playoffs, leading north of 100 laps. The No. 48 team started the campaign strong with five top 10s in the opening six races, but they have four finishes outside the top 25 in the last five events.

SLEEPER PICK:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

You can’t blame Busch for chasing the win last weekend at Texas. But it resulted in a late-race wreck and more valuable points that the No. 8 team continues to bleed in 2025. The Randall Burnett-led team has been strong on intermediates in the Next Gen era, predating Busch’s addition to the team in 2023. Last fall, the two-time Cup champion was in position to win until he spun in lapped traffic. Busch has had speed to contend at multiple 1.5-mile tracks this season, including at Texas and Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

It might be time to start giving Chastain some more devotion in your lineup. It’s apparent, with how poorly Trackhouse qualifies across the board, that the three-car team is searching for speed. But Chastain continues plugging away with respectable finishes and solid restarts, netting a series-best 45 gained positions on intermediate tracks in 2025. He is the most recent winner at Kansas and has four top 10s in six races here with Trackhouse.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ryan Preece | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 60 Ford

Odds: 55-1

While I lean heavily into recent records, you can throw those away when it comes to Preece in his debut year with RFK. It doesn’t matter the track layout, the No. 60 team has been an outlier this season, often getting off strategy from the bulk of the field and contending near the front of the field. The Connecticut native has just three top-20 finishes in 10 Kansas starts, with two of those coming in the last three events.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 16-1

Slotting Logano here last week backfired as he snapped his long skid of finishes outside the top five to begin the season in grand fashion by winning at Texas. He has three Kansas wins, but eight of his last 12 starts have resulted in finishes of 14th or worse. The No. 22 team has been consistently inconsistent in 2025, so I’m not banking on consecutive stellar outings.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 45-1

While we’re analyzing Penske, let’s throw Cindric in here. Momentum is a beautiful thing, and it appeared as though Cindric had it in spades following his Talladega victory by leading the most laps he’s ever led at a non-drafting track (60) at Texas. Skip down to the next driver if you’re a Cindric fan, though, as the No. 2 team has four straight finishes below 30th at Kansas.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 25-1

This will be a fascinating mesh this weekend. Kansas was undoubtedly among Briscoe’s worst tracks on the schedule with Stewart-Haas Racing, scoring one finish better than 19th in eight Kansas starts. However, he is now part of a No. 19 team that excelled at Kansas with Martin Truex Jr. in recent seasons, scoring 10 top 10s in 12 starts together. The driver matters, though, and Briscoe has yet to get a good feel for Kansas.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Denny Hamlin

This is a brutal matchup to pick between JGR teammates, as both drivers have been stout at Kansas in the Next Gen car. Hamlin’s stellar record here precedes that, though, holding the track’s record for most wins (four). I’m not contesting that.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Joey Logano vs. Chase Elliott

Logano has been hit or miss at Kansas, while Hendrick has been quite impressive here. Elliott was among five drivers to have top 10s in both Kansas races last year. His 12 top-10 finishes in 18 Kansas starts are the second-most top 10s he has at a single track (Martinsville, 13). The theme entering this weekend will be Toyotas and Hendrick, and Logano doesn’t fall under either category.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ross Chastain vs. Tyler Reddick

Kansas will always have a Reddick feel to it. 23XI Racing has won three times at the 1.5-mile venue, though the organization largely struggled here in 2024 with the No. 45 team having finishes of 20th and 25th. Chastain tends to manhandle his No. 1 car into good results but is facing a speed deficit. It’s time for Reddick to show out, coming off a promising run last weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Bubba Wallace vs. Alex Bowman

This has been the strongest start to Wallace’s eight-year Cup career. He’s facing a 90-race winless streak entering the weekend, though, dating back to the fall Kansas race in 2022. Kansas is among Bowman’s best tracks on the schedule and the No. 48 team needs a good run. I believe Bowman rises to the occasion this weekend.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman, Tyler Reddick

GARAGE: Kyle Busch

36 for 36: It’s time for Bowman to string together good finishes again, dropping to 10th in the regular-season championship standings with a DNF at Texas. His Kansas numbers jump off the page with five consecutive top 10s. His 6.5 average finish in the two races here last season led the way for Hendrick, even if other drivers had shinier moments.