Fantasy Fastlane: Rolling the dice with playoff drivers at Las Vegas

After the opening two rounds in the Cup Series Playoffs, eight of the best teams have advanced to the Round of 8, making it among the deepest fields in history. All seven drivers with multiple wins in 2024 made it through to the penultimate round, with eight of the top nine seeds entering the postseason still in the running. Seven of the top eight drivers in top-five and top-10 finishes are still in the running for a championship. There is no Cinderella story this year, even with two-time Cup champion Joey Logano, who finished 15th in the regular season standings. The bulk of those drivers also historically run well at Las Vegas.

Fantasy players will earn 10 Fan Rewards points each time they set their lineup in NASCAR Fantasy Live. Fan Rewards is a way for registered users on NASCAR.com to earn points toward things like NASCAR tickets, NASCAR merchandise and more. Learn more about Fan Rewards.

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 3-1

With wins in the last two Las Vegas races in commanding fashion, Larson should be at the front of your lineup this weekend. The No. 5 team swept all three stages in those two races, leading at least half of both events. Four of his last five Vegas finishes were first or second.

MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 9-1

After a whirlwind Round of 12, Reddick can reset for the Round of 8, having not yet hit his stride in the playoffs. The Regular Season Champion has a single top-10 result through the first six postseason races but has typically excelled in Sin City. The No. 45 car was best in class behind Larson in the spring, finishing runner-up. Reddick has five top-10 finishes in the last six Vegas races.

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 15-2

Byron put together an emphatic Round of 12, scoring podium finishes in all three races. He went under the radar, but the No. 24 team scored the most points in the round. Dating back to Byron's dominant performance in the spring of 2023 at Las Vegas, Hendrick Motorsports has swept the stages in the last three races here. In the spring, Byron had the speed capable of threatening Larson, but lost track position and finished 10th.

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 8-1

If last year's fall race at Las Vegas had been one lap longer, it's likely Bell would have picked up his first win at a mile-and-a-half. Instead, he had to wait an additional week, when he did so at Homestead. The spring race was disastrous for the No. 20 team, spinning toward the end of Stage 2 and getting trapped multiple laps down. But I've got three uses left for Bell, and not letting one go to waste this weekend. Bell has five top 10s in the six playoff races and led 122 laps at Kansas, the series' most recent 1.5-mile race.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 16-1

Ultimately, Chastain won the Kansas race and his Sin City numbers might hit the jackpot this weekend. In five starts at Las Vegas with Trackhouse, Chastain has four top-five finishes and an average result of 5.2. Look for the No. 1 car to be among the best non-playoff cars this weekend.

SLEEPER PICK:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 14-1

Despite missing the postseason, Busch has turned up the wick over the last two months. He was in position to win at Kansas until spinning with 30 laps remaining while trying to lap Chase Briscoe. The hometown driver is running out of races to continue his record streak of posting wins in 20 straight seasons. The No. 8 car has excelled on intermediate tracks this season, and if it wasn't for a late speeding penalty in March, he would have likely been in the mix.

SLEEPER PICK:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 30-1

With how strong Wallace has been on all types of race tracks in the last few months, he shouldn't be that big of a sleeper. But there's a lot to be desired when looking at his Las Vegas numbers. He won Stage 1 in this race two years ago, only to tangle with Larson to begin Stage 2 and wreck out. He has an average finish of 23rd in 13 races but did place fourth in the spring 2023 event.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

While Elliott's three Hendrick teammates have all won at Las Vegas since 2021, the No. 9 team has lacked results. Six of his last eight finishes have been outside the top 10, with four of those being 21st or worse. Elliott made strides here in the spring, but only managed a 12th-place result. I have one start with Elliott left and I'm not wasting it this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 14-1

I'm going to suggest something abnormal for this weekend, going against my own advice. Truex has eight consecutive top-10 finishes at Las Vegas, a streak that dates back to 2020. Thirteen of his last 14 finishes have cracked the top 10, including a pair of victories. On paper, those are stellar numbers and look incredible. But how many times have we seen that this year? And he has just one top-five finish in more than five months. I've fallen into that trap too many times in 2024. It's also completely possible I switch my mind after practice and qualifying.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 35-1

Buescher has become a contender on all types of tracks, but Las Vegas has never been kind to him. In 15 starts, he has a single top-10 finish (2020) and an average finish of 18.6. Nine of those finishes have been sprinkled between 11th and 20th.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Larson vs. Christopher Bell

Talk about brutal matchups. History says to take Larson, and that's what I'm doing. The No. 5 team has been unstoppable at Vegas, and as Cliff Daniels said bluntly after winning the Charlotte Roval, the only team that can stop the No. 5 group is themselves. Bell will surely be strong, but Larson is near automatic at Vegas.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. William Byron

Admittedly, it takes a while into Vegas races before Hamlin gets into the groove. Meanwhile, Byron is constantly running up front and contending for the win. It felt like the No. 24 team took the summer off, but it is beginning to peak at the right time.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Ryan Blaney

The Round of 8 is where Blaney thrived en route to his championship run last season. He has an average finish of 11.4 in 16 Vegas starts and is seemingly always in the mix. Reddick has had race-winning speed more times than not this year on intermediates -- throw away both Kansas races -- so I will take the upstart, looking to make his first Championship 4 appearance.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Elliott vs. Joey Logano

With a second wind of life, Logano is a dangerous man in the playoffs. The No. 22 car has picked up the pace in recent weeks and the two-time champion is a three-time winner in Sin City. If this were just about any other intermediate track, Elliott would get the nod. But Logano does have an average finish of 9.9 at Las Vegas, which is essentially where he finished in the spring.

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney

GARAGE: Ross Chastain