Fantasy Fastlane: Ryan Blaney tries to keep strong Phoenix numbers going

This weekend’s Cup Series race at Phoenix Raceway is important for many reasons. Not only will Phoenix host the championship race for the fifth time later this season, but NASCAR is debuting a highly anticipated short-track package at the 1-mile track. Despite the changes from 2023, expect drivers and teams who have run well recently at Phoenix to remain prominent on Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). 

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MUST START: 

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 7-1

With Kevin Harvick retiring at the conclusion of last season, there needs to be a new driver who takes over the reins of mastering Phoenix. Blaney might be the guy. He enters this weekend with five consecutive top-five finishes at the 1-mile track, with the last three of those being runner-up finishes. His last seven starts at Phoenix all resulted in top 10s, still 14 short of Harvick’s record-breaking 20 straight. Blaney stood atop the sport at Phoenix just four months ago, when he was crowned the 2023 Cup champion.

MUST START: 

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet 

Odds: 15-2

Believing that Byron is destined for another spectacular season after his Daytona 500 win, players need to choose wisely on when to use the No. 24 car in their lineup. This would be a good weekend for that. Byron has three consecutive top-10 finishes at Phoenix, and led more than 60 laps in both races last season. In 12 Phoenix starts, he has an average finish of 11.3, which trails only Pocono (9.9) for his best average finish at a single race track with at least five starts. 

MUST START: 

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 6-1

Larson is gifted for having speed everywhere, but he’s always excelled on intermediate tracks. Quietly, however, he’s been stellar at Phoenix. Despite just one win – when he was crowned the 2021 Cup champion – Larson has top 10 finishes in nine of his last 10 starts at the track. The only miscue was blowing an engine in the spring race two seasons ago. Six of those nine races ended inside the top five. He’s also coming off a win at Las Vegas last weekend. 

MUST START: 

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 17-2

Though he wasn’t a Championship 4 driver last season, Chastain dominated last year’s season finale. He led more than half the race and had the best overall car. Since moving to Trackhouse, Chastain has three top-five finishes in four Phoenix races, and the only time he missed out on the top five was when Denny Hamlin put him in the wall in the waning laps. Otherwise, that, too, would have likely resulted with a top-five finish. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 20-1

Much has been made of the inexperience and inconsistency of Stewart-Haas Racing’s current driver lineup. No matter the situation, though, Briscoe shows up at Phoenix. Prior to a disappointing 24th-place finish in November, he had three straight top-10 finishes at Phoenix, including the 2022 spring race win. That win remains the only Cup victory among the team’s four current drivers.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Josh Berry | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford

Odds: 80-1

Sure, Harvick will get the majority of the credit for having 21 straight top 10s at Phoenix. But it was Rodney Childers who prepared Harvick’s cars for 20 of those races and he remains with the No. 4 team. Berry is a short-track ace, and this might be the first real shot that he has at a top-10 finish this season. He finished 10th in this race last year, driving in place of an injured Chase Elliott.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 100-1

It might not look sexy on paper, but McDowell had a pair of top-15 finishes at his home race track last season, including a ninth-place finish in the championship race. Granted, that is the outlier of being his only top-10 finish in 26 Phoenix starts. Front Row did add emphasis on its short-track program last season, as the No. 34 team also scored top 10s at Richmond and Bristol. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 30-1

With how much speed Toyota had at Las Vegas, the belief is Wallace will be used plenty throughout the season. Phoenix shouldn’t be one of those starts. While he did finish 10th in November, that was his first top 10 at the track since 2018. Half of his six Phoenix starts with 23XI have resulted in finishes outside of the top 20.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

The highlight reels will always have Phoenix as a big moment in Bowman’s career. Subbing for an injured Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2016, he won the pole and led 194 laps. Since that breakout day, the Arizona native has just one top-10 result in 12 Phoenix tries. The numbers speak for themselves.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 150-1

Both of Cindric’s Team Penske teammates typically run well at Phoenix, but he’s yet to acquire the right feel for the 1-mile track. In four Phoenix races, Cindric owns three finishes of 24th or worse at the track. His highlight is an 11th-place finish in 2022. The No. 2 car has shown speed in all three races this season, so it’s possible he changes his Phoenix narrative around this weekend.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Ross Chastain

There seems to be some tension in the air between these two drivers. Ironically, it began in the championship race last November when Blaney couldn’t pass Chastain. It boiled again last weekend in Las Vegas, when both drivers were air blocking one another. Both drivers will likely play a factor in the outcome of the Phoenix race, as they are among the best drivers in recent years at Phoenix. I could see it going either way, but entering the weekend, I’ll give a slight advantage to Blaney. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Chase Elliott

Though Hamlin has competed in more than double the amount of races at Phoenix, the two drivers have similar numbers at Phoenix. Since 2019, Hamlin has earned seven top-10 finishes, including a win in 2019; meanwhile, Elliott won the championship in 2020 at Phoenix. In Elliott’s last three starts, however, he doesn’t own a top 10, so let’s go with Hamlin.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Kyle Busch vs. Christopher Bell

The last-place finish for Bell in November isn’t indicative of how the No. 20 car ran up until he experienced a brake failure. His overall record of four finishes outside the top 15 in eight starts tells more of the story. Busch is among the all-time greats at Phoenix. He’s scored a trio of victories and has top 10s in more than 70% of his starts. I’ll stick with those numbers. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ty Gibbs vs. Alex Bowman

It sure seems like Gibbs is destined to rattle off a win before very long. The sophomore driver continues to impress, and it wouldn’t be surprising if I add him to my lineup by the end of the weekend. Bowman typically struggles at Phoenix, so give me Gibbs this weekend.

MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch

GARAGE: Chase Briscoe