Fantasy Fastlane: Shane van Gisbergen continues to be a stud at road courses

The second of two consecutive road course races is on tap as the Cup Series makes its annual visit to Sonoma Raceway this weekend. Kyle Larson has been the driver to beat at his home track in recent seasons, but Shane van Gisbergen looks to win his third straight road course race to tie Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson as the winningest driver in 2025. Upsets galore rule the In-Season Challenge, so who gets through Wine Country unscathed to the Final Four

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

RELATED: How to watch NASCAR on TNT Sports | In-Season Challenge hub

MUST START:

Shane van Gisbergen | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 88 Chevrolet

Odds: 13-10

SVG has mastered the last two road courses, winning both in commanding fashion. One could argue that through just nine Cup road course starts, he’s the greatest road-course driver ever. The field should be more evenly matched at Sonoma, with van Gisbergen having yet to compete in a Cup race here. He’s looking to tie Jeff Gordon’s record of winning from the pole in three straight road course events.

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

If anyone is able to stop van Gisbergen, look no further than Larson. The No. 5 car has won two of the last four races in NoCal and his six road course victories are tied for the fourth-most in Cup history. With a recent string of mediocre finishes – three finishes outside the top 10 in the last month – the No. 5 team is due to get back on track. 

MUST START:

Michael McDowell | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 71 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-1

After claiming the checkered flag at Chicago, van Gisbergen downplayed how strong McDowell was in the early going. He led a race-high 31 laps, holding off a hard-charging SVG. However, that was before McDowell had a throttle cable break early in Stage 2. The savvy road course veteran has finished seventh or better in each of the last three Sonoma events, including a runner-up finish last year after an early spin. As he stated on X, Chicago was the preview for Sonoma.

MUST START:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 14-2

If it hadn’t been for an engine issue in the opening laps at Chicago, many teams believed Buescher had a car capable of winning. He still finished 18th. Buescher has three straight top-five finishes at Sonoma, the longest active streak. His average finish of 3.0 is the best among all drivers at Sonoma in the Next Gen era.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ty Gibbs | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 54 Toyota

Odds: 11-1

For the second consecutive road course event, Gibbs had the second-best car. It seems like a matter of time before the No. 54 car wins, and Gibbs’ best chance might be on a road course. With an average finish of 27.5 (his worst among all tracks), the numbers would lean towards staying away from Gibbs this weekend. However, he’s on a hot streak at road courses, consistently running towards the front. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 22-1

Chastain found himself on the wrong end of a screaming match with Joey Logano at the conclusion of the Chicago Street Race. He deliberately turned the No. 22 car on a restart after being bumped into the tire barriers himself. Chastain is strong at Sonoma, scoring top-10 finishes in his last four starts, dating back to his lone season with Chip Ganassi Racing. The No. 1 car has excelled at restarts this year on road courses, ranking fifth, according to Racing Insights. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Ryan Preece | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 60 Ford

Odds: 80-1

The two times the Cup Series has visited a road course in the last month, Preece has squarely been in the picture. He said last weekend that he’s honed in on his craft when turning left and right, entering 2025 with a new approach. It has worked out thus far, finishing seventh in downtown Chicago. He does much of his damage on restarts, ranking first in the series at road courses in 2025. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

What is going on with Byron? What was the most consistent team in Cup this year has turned in an average finish of 34.7 over the last three races, his worst ever in a three-week period. Yet Byron remains the regular-season championship leader with seven races remaining. That could come to a halt this weekend, as he has a best finish of ninth in six Sonoma attempts. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 65-1

Hamlin got back on track at road courses with a fourth-place finish at Chicago. It’s just his second top 10 in 19 starts at road courses in the Next Gen era, however. In each of the last three Sonoma events, Hamlin has placed outside the top 30 despite winning the pole in 2023. It would be best to hold off until Dover, where he’s the defending winner.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 25-1

Based on the record book, Sonoma is Blaney’s best road course with five top-10 finishes in eight starts. However, the No. 12 team is riding a 21-race streak without a top-five finish at a road course. With a different strategy, Blaney won Stage 2 at Chicago and earned valuable stage points. Just think it’s best to wait until Dover to use the No. 12 car, where he has consecutive top fives. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ty Gibbs vs. Zane Smith

Here we go! An unlikely group of eight, combined to have no wins so far in 2025, completes the Round of 8 in the In-Season Challenge. With $1 million at stake, there is still plenty to race for. This might be the easiest matchup of the weekend, as Gibbs has been a beast on road courses recently. Smith isn’t a pushover, but the No. 54 Toyota is among the best in the series currently at road courses.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Preece vs. Tyler Reddick

This is the most interesting matchup of the weekend. Preece has worked hard at becoming a better road racer and it’s paid dividends with strong qualifying efforts and finishes at Mexico City and Chicago. Reddick is tied for the most victories on road courses in the Next Gen era, though, and should be favored here. Sonoma might be Reddick’s worst road course, statistically, with a best effort of eighth in four starts. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Alex Bowman vs. Ty Dillon

Can the Cinderella run continue for Dillon? His competition wrecked out early in the previous two races, giving him a clear path to the Round of 8. Bowman used car-to-car combat to get past Bubba Wallace at Chicago. Bowman is an excellent road racer and should get the nod here. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

John Hunter Nemechek vs. Erik Jones

An all-Legacy Motor Club matchup concludes the Round of 8. This is the most equally matched pairing, with both cars coming from the same race shop, and neither driver’s specialty is road courses. Jones should have the speed advantage, but I’m leaning toward Nemechek, who has top 15 finishes in the last two road courses. He lacks experience at Sonoma, finishing 29th in his lone start last year. 

MY LINEUP: Shane van Gisbergen, Kyle Larson, Michael McDowell, Chris Buescher, Chase Elliott.

GARAGE: Kyle Busch. 

36 for 36: It’s become apparent that the No. 8 team is its strongest on road courses in 2025. Busch nearly snapped his long winless streak in early March at COTA, dropping to fifth after abusing his tires late in the event. He never got a true chance to show his potential in Mexico City, wiping out on a slick course. Last weekend in Chicago, he rebounded from a spin and pit-road penalty to snag his first top five since COTA. The two-time Cup Champion has seven top-10 finishes in the last nine Sonoma races, including a runner-up result in 2023 with RCR.