Fantasy Fastlane: Team Penske faces a true test at Iowa

Since the Next Gen era began in 2022, Joe Gibbs Racing, Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske have dominated short tracks. Aside from capitalizing on superspeedways, Penske drivers believe they have an advantage at smaller venues. That’s been proven with three straight championships. With a handful of short tracks over the final 14 races of the season, it’s time for the juggernaut to come to the forefront.  

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 11-2

With a pair of wins at Martinsville Speedway in the last two seasons and absolutely dominating the second half of last year’s inaugural Cup race at Iowa, Blaney is starting to master short tracks. Penske drivers have alluded to short tracks being their strong suit in recent seasons. Blaney led a career-high 201 laps last year at Iowa and has just one finish outside the top 10 in 10 national touring starts. He’s the only driver to win a race in all three series here. 

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-2

Prior to wrecking at Iowa last year, Larson had among the best cars in the field. The No. 5 team won the Busch Light pole award and led 80 laps. Larson has upped his game on short tracks in the Next Gen era and is challenging Denny Hamlin for king of the hill at tracks measuring under a mile. Four of his six short-track triumphs have come in the last three-and-a-half seasons.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 9-2

Hamlin revealed recently that he was feeling ill at Iowa last year. That can partially explain how off the No. 11 car was to begin the 350-lap event. Hamlin made a mid-race rally before getting in the same wreck that Larson was involved in. The 58-time Cup Series winner has won five of the 19 short track contests in the Next Gen car, cracking the top five in the finishing order in 11 of the last 13. 

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

An eventful weekend cost Bell dearly last season, as the No. 20 car blew a tire and slapped the wall in practice. Bell started from the rear and had incredible long-run pace, driving up to fourth at the checkered flag. On an even playing field, he may have been comparable to Blaney. Bell has nine top-10 finishes in the last 11 short-track races. He also has a pair of Xfinity Series victories here.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ryan Preece | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 60 Ford

Odds: 50-1

Had it not been for Bubba Wallace winning the Brickyard 400, Preece’s fourth-place finish would look a lot better. Instead, he lost 26 points to the regular season elimination bubble, now held by RFK teammate Chris Buescher. Fortunately for Preece, he’s a short-track stud who’s ultra consistent. He has nine top-15 finishes in the last 11 events. His Xfinity win at Iowa in 2017 ultimately led to his first true Cup opportunity with JTG. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Josh Berry | View stats

Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford

Odds: 25-1

One of the highlights from Berry’s rookie campaign with Stewart-Haas Racing was a strong seventh-place showing at Iowa. The short-track ace led 32 laps, cracking the top five in the first two stages. While the sample size is minimal on short tracks in a Penske-affiliated car, Berry led 40 laps at Martinsville earlier this year before mechanical gremlins the No. 21 car. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

Hyak Motorsports, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 200-1

Since tangling with Carson Hocevar at Nashville Superspeedway, it’s been a brutal stretch of finishes for Stenhouse, with eight finishes of 20th or worse in the last nine events, losing 175 points to the playoff elimination line. In 2024, speed was hard to come by for the No. 47 team and Stenhouse still strung together a fifth-place effort at Iowa after starting 35th. Stenhouse has three victories in six Xfinity starts here.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 18-1

The glaring flaw for Reddick early in his Cup career has been short tracks. He has only three top 10s in the last 23 short-track races, though all have come in the last eight attempts. Reddick was a nonfactor at Iowa last year, finishing 22nd. He’s led just 96 laps in his career at short tracks (89 at Richmond and 7 at Bristol).

STAY AWAY FROM:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

The hits keep on coming for the two-time Cup champion. Busch is in must-win mode now, 81 points below the elimination line with four regular season races remaining. Two of them are at short tracks where the No. 8 team has zero top 10s in the last 11 starts. Busch, the once dominant short-track driver, has just one top 10 at short tracks since joining RCR. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 20-1

Add Buescher’s name to the list of drivers who have struggled recently at short tracks. Sure, he’s a two-time winner on them (Bristol and Richmond), but he doesn’t have a top 10 in the last seven short-track races and finished 18th at Iowa last year after leading 16 laps. He just needs to minimize the points damage this weekend and hope there’s not a new winner from below 16th on the playoff grid. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Bubba Wallace vs. Ross Chastain 

These drivers enter Iowa on the opposite end of the spectrum with Wallace having the biggest breakthrough moment of his career at Indianapolis. Chastain had one of the toughest weeks he’s had in a Trackhouse uniform. That could flip this weekend, as Chastain grinded out multiple Xfinity races at Iowa, earning a pair of top-five finishes with underfunded JD Motorsports. He knows how to get around the .875-mile oval.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Elliott vs. Christopher Bell

Both drivers are in my lineup entering the weekend. Consistency would have me lean towards Elliott, but the flashiness of Bell is appealing. If the No. 20 team can duplicate the speed from last year, it’s hard to bet against Bell. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. vs Josh Berry 

This is a fun matchup with a pair of drivers who scored great finishes at Iowa last year but are going through summer slumps. Stenhouse has dropped off considerably in the last two months, and Berry has just one top 10 since winning at Las Vegas in March. Given Berry is running a Penske chassis, he gets the nod this weekend. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. William Byron

The top-two finishers from last year at Iowa should be in the mix again this weekend. Byron is looking to join Blaney as the only driver to have wins in all three national series at Iowa. This weekend is a true test for Blaney, however. He’s gone cold since winning at Nashville but has three victories in the last nine short-track races. 

MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott

GARAGE: Joey Logano

36 for 36: Never like to sing my own praise, but toot toot after changing my pick to Wallace following Saturday’s practice at Indianapolis. My 36 for 36 selections won two races in July (Chicago and Indy)! While that led to a big jump in the standings, it burnt up another use on a top-tier team. I’m leaning on consistency this week, and while I’ve written about Preece here multiple times this year, I think this is finally the week he’s used. Preece is having a career year, setting personal bests in top fives and top 10s, on pace to shatter his best average finishing position.