Fantasy Fastlane: Team Penske soars at Gateway

With the addition of shorter, flat ovals, World Wide Technology Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway, to the 2025 Cup Series Playoffs, it’s logical to think Team Penske has a path to get its three entries into the Round of 8. That journey begins this weekend at Gateway, as the trio were strong at Richmond Raceway – Gateway’s cousin track – last month, putting all three cars finishing inside the top five. In the three previous visits to St. Louis, the three Penske drivers have tallied the most points. Joe Gibbs Racing should also be a contender, with Christopher Bell looming large.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. With 36 chartered cars to start the season and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 5-1

If it wasn’t for the No. 12 running out of fuel on the final lap last year, Blaney would have another victory on his resume. The miscalculation dropped him to 24th, the last car on the lead lap. Don’t let that number fool you, though, as his other two finishes here are fourth and sixth, respectively. This has the feeling of a Blaney runaway on Sunday. 

MUST START:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 19-2

By Blaney slipping out of the top five on the final lap in 2024, Logano was the beneficiary and ended the race in fifth position. Logano is the only driver in the series to have top five finishes in all three trips to St. Louis. His average finish of third is his best at any venue. This is a prime opportunity for Logano to gain ground on the cutline, entering Gateway three points below the bubble. 

MUST START:

Christopher Bell | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota

Odds: 5-1

Prior to Blaney running out of fuel, it was Bell who was in position to score the victory until he had engine woes. Still, the No. 20 Toyota was good enough to finish seventh after leading 80 laps. Bell has an average finish of ninth at Gateway in three starts and is often a threat at flatter tracks, with multiple triumphs at New Hampshire and Phoenix Raceway. 

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota 

Odds: 13-2

The playoffs set up precisely for Hamlin, as he’s often a menace on shorter, flat circuits. The No. 11 car has finished runner-up in the past two trips to St. Louis. His average finish is only 12.7 after an abysmal 34th-place result in the inaugural visit. With races at Bristol Motor Speedway and New Hampshire on the horizon, I’m not sold that I’ll start Hamlin given I have four uses remaining over the final nine races. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 16-1

With Blaney and Bell having their misfortune, Cindric was the winner, leading 53 laps total last year at Gateway. It wasn’t some fluke victory, but he was in the right place at the right time. Since clinching a playoff spot at Talladega Superspeedway in April, Cindric has only a pair of top 10s in 17 races, but one of those was a fifth-place effort at Richmond. Cindric has never finished worse than 13th at Gateway. His average finish of 8.3 and average starting spot of 4.7 are both personal bests at a singular venue.  

SLEEPER PICK:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 20-1

Let’s make this a two-for-one combo, by hitting both RCR drivers. Busch has led a series-high 202 laps in the three Gateway races. He has two top-two finishes, including a dominant victory in 2023 (his last win, 84 races ago). Don’t overlook Austin Dillon, who finished sixth last year and won his way into the 2025 postseason with a commanding victory at Richmond. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Carson Hocevar | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

Hocevar’s sophomore season has been feast or famine with already more top 10 finishes than his rookie season while also having seven DNFs, tied for the second-most in the series (trailing only Cody Ware’s eight). However, it was a stellar Cup debut – prior to having a brake rotor explode – at St. Louis in 2023 that Hocevar credits to him being paired with Spire now. He backed that up with an eighth-place finish in 2024. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chase Elliott | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet

Odds: 18-1

Elliott is vulnerable entering the weekend, sitting only nine points above the cutline. He led the way for HMS with a 17th-place finish in a discouraging playoff opener at Darlington Raceway. The 2020 champion has only two starts here, as he was suspended for the 2023 race. His best finish of the two is 13th (2024), and the No. 9 bunch has a single top 10 in the last six races in 2025. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 25-1

With a best finish of 21st at Gateway, Wallace’s numbers don’t leap off the page. That has dropped his average finish to 25.7 at St. Louis, his worst of all tracks on the schedule. With a new philosophy that Wallace has approached the 2025 season with, this could be a moot point.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 45-1

The schedule doesn’t get any easier for Bowman after an “unacceptable” 31st-place finish in the playoff opener at Darlington. Gateway is one of three active tracks where he’s yet to crack the top 10 in the finishing order. This style of track is also HMS’ weak point, with Kyle Larson being its only driver to have a top five finish at Gateway (2023). The behemoth team has a grand total of three top 10s across all four of its cars here.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chase Briscoe vs. Alex Bowman

For a weekend that has some brutally tough matchups, this one seems fairly simple. There should be some optimism for Bowman after finishing runner-up at Richmond in the penultimate race of the regular season. However, his Gateway numbers – covered above – are putrid. And then, you look at Briscoe and the No. 19 team is hitting its stride at the right time, ranking first in speed, average finish, points per race, top fives, stage wins and laps led over the last 12 races, according to Racing Insights.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Joey Logano vs. Denny Hamlin

This is where the fun begins. Both organizations have high expectations entering Gateway, and each have been uber consistent at the Midwest race track. History says Hamlin should get the nod, with runner-up finishes the last two years, clipping Logano in the finishing order. This might be a situation where, despite Logano being in my lineup, Hamlin gets the advantage. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Christopher Bell vs. Austin Cindric

Expect strong runs from both Bell and Cindric, who are on the plus side of the elimination line with little wiggle room. Bell is elite at shorter, flat tracks, giving him superiority entering the weekend. Wouldn’t be surprised if Cindric is hunting another top five, though. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Bubba Wallace vs. Chase Elliott

Both drivers are looking to flip the script on recent performances at Gateway. As poor as Wallace’s numbers are here, Toyota often excels at this style of race track. Wallace led a career-high 123 laps at Richmond last month, so he gets the leg up. 

MY LINEUP: Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric. 

GARAGE: Kyle Busch

36 for 36: I’ve saved all three Penske drivers for the postseason, and we’re starting things off with Cindric. The defending winner at Gateway earned 56 points in last year’s race en route to his second career victory. Of his 12 top-five finishes through 142 starts, nine have come at road courses and superspeedways. The other three have all been at short, flat venues with Gateway, Martinsville and last month at Richmond.