Fantasy Fastlane: Texas is true wild card as Briscoe leads with best average finish

Since Texas Motor Speedway was reconfigured in 2017, it has become one of the biggest wild card tracks on the NASCAR schedule. The last four races have featured double-digit cautions, with two of the last three having a track-high 16 apiece. Some drivers thrive under chaos, with only three competitors having top 10s in the three Next Gen races at TMS.

New to Fastlane this year is my weekly NASCAR 36 for 36 pick, where you can play along. It’s a season-long points battle introduced last year in which strategy is the primary emphasis. With 36 chartered cars and 36 races on the 2025 schedule, players can choose each car once for the duration of the season.

RELATED: Weekend schedule

MUST START:

William Byron | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 13-2

With fantasy being a points game, Byron is necessary this weekend. Across the three Next Gen races at Texas, he has tallied the most points and has an average finish of 3.7. That’s on par with Byron’s 2025 season, which has been incredibly consistent through 10 races, with an average finish of 8.5. He’s already led more laps than the entire 2024 campaign.

MUST START:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 16-1

This weekend’s race might be the most pressure Briscoe has faced yet with JGR. He’s churned out great finishes at Texas – one of the three drivers to have top 10s in each Next Gen race – and currently holds the best average finish in track history (9.0). He’s never finished worse than 15th in four Cup starts at the track.

MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

Through 10 races in 2025, Reddick quietly sits sixth in the regular-season championship standings with four top-10 finishes. The No. 45 team has yet to show blistering speed like it did last year, having led just 85 laps. The good news for Reddick is he’s a former Texas winner (2022) and trails only Briscoe for the best average finish in track history (9.3). It’s about time he had a breakout weekend.

MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 17-2

With only six uses for Hamlin left over the final 16 races in the regular season, I’m punting on the No. 11 car entering this weekend with how unpredictable Texas has become. According to Racing Insights, however, Hamlin has spent the most laps inside the top five and top 10 at Texas in the Next Gen era. Two of those races resulted in top 10s. But last year, he wrecked in the waning laps while challenging for the lead. Hamlin is a great pick here having won three times at Texas.

SLEEPER PICK:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 35-1

You couldn’t have scripted a worse start to 2025 for Keselowski even if you tried. Through 10 races, he has seven finishes outside the top 25 and is still looking for his first top 10 finish. Thinking positively, Keselowski has six consecutive top 10s at Texas, the longest active streak. He has yet to win the “Lone Star State,” but has contributed three runner-up finishes, including this race last year to Chase Elliott.

SLEEPER PICK:

Daniel Suárez | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet

Odds: 50-1

Similarly to Keselowski, it’s been a rough start to 2025 for Suarez with plenty of points left on the table. He ranks 25th in the championship standings, needing to put a string of good finishes together soon. The No. 99 team has consecutive top 10s at TMS, placing fifth last year. That was aided by a caution during a cycle of green-flag pit stops, but Suarez held on for a top five. Suarez has four straight finishes of 12th or better at Texas.

SLEEPER PICK:

Carson Hocevar | View stats

Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet

Odds: 65-1

Hocevar seems to enjoy mayhem, which is what Texas could bring. He scored his first career top-10 finish in the Cup Series last year at TMS and has shown glimpses of speed in 2025 that could contend further towards the front.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 16-1

The hits keep on coming for Logano in 2025. With a post-race disqualification last weekend at Talladega, the reigning series champion has yet to post a top-five finish this year. Because of its unpredictable nature, Texas is a bit of an outlier of an intermediate track. However, Logano has just one top 10 – winning last fall at Las Vegas – in the previous eight 1.5-mile races. The No. 22 team has top 10s in 66% of the races at the reconfigured Texas track.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Admittedly, Bowman doesn’t have a grasp on Texas and the stat sheet reflects that assessment. In 11 starts here with HMS, he has a pair of fifth-place finishes to his resume. Everything else is 12th or worse, including DNFs in two of the last four races. In 15 career starts at Texas, Bowman has a subpar average finish of 24.8, his second worst of any track (Indianapolis, 33.0).

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 35-1

A goose egg still sits in the top 10 column for Buescher at his native Texas track. The No. 17 team has top 15s in each of the last two races. But through 15 starts, he has an average finish of 22.1. Stay away from Buscher, knowing that Kansas is next week.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Tyler Reddick vs. Chase Elliott

This matchup might raise some eyebrows because Elliott is the defending race winner at Texas. The reality is that he has two top 10s in the last eight Texas events dating back to 2019. Give me Reddick, who is among the series’ best at TMS.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Daniel Suárez vs. Bubba Wallace

Trackhouse has executed strongly at Texas in recent seasons with Suarez’s No. 99 team. However, there is a real lack of speed across the board for the company in 2025. Wallace has displayed the most speed he’s ever had this year, sitting seventh in points with his trajectory continuing to rise. He also led a career-high 111 laps at Texas in 2023 and finished third. Wallace is the pick.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Brad Keselowski vs. Ross Chastain

Keselowski badly needs to turn the ship in 2025, with an awful opening three months of the season. And while Trackhouse has lacked speed overall, Chastain finesses his No. 1 car to good showings. This is a tougher matchup than anticipated because of the flaws of each team. I’ll reluctantly take the No. 6 team, as Keselowski has repeatedly said there is potential. His recent track record here doesn’t hurt, either.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Austin Cindric vs. Joey Logano

The Penske teammates had beef at Talladega, with Logano being frustrated that Cindric pushed a different manufacturer past the No. 22 car to the Stage 2 victory. Cindric had the last laugh in Victory Lane. If it can go wrong, it feels like it has gone wrong for Logano in 2025, but playing the law of averages, he’s due for a good showing. Cindric has struggled with two finishes of 25th or worse in three Texas starts. So, while Logano is listed in my drivers to stay away from, it’s logical to believe he’s going to place better than Cindric.

MY LINEUP: William Byron, Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, Brad Keselowski

GARAGE: Carson Hocevar

36 for 36: Four straight finishes of 12th or better at an unforgiving Texas is nothing to shy away from for Suárez. There is a sense of urgency in the No. 99 team needing to turn the corner this season. Trackhouse seems to be at its best at intermediates this season, with Suárez having three top-five finishes in the last eight 1.5-mile events, including a pair of third-place outings at Las Vegas. He finished fifth here last year.