Fantasy Fastlane: Toyota, Hendrick will be strong at Kansas

The Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway has a lot to live up to after the spring event delivered a certified banger, featuring the closest finish in Cup history. An aged Kansas asphalt has led to the track becoming one of the most competitive stops on the circuit, with drivers testing their limits and running all over the track. It feels like we’re in for another doozy this weekend, though from a fantasy perspective, the last two events have gone into overtime and shuffled the finishing order considerably. 

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MUST START:

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 9-2

Few -- if any -- drivers have been better than Hamlin in the Next Gen era, despite the No. 11 team having just one win at Kansas in that time period. Hamlin enters the Hollywood Casino 400 with six straight top-five finishes at the track, and has three top-two results in the five Next Gen races. With how unpredictable the Round of 12 could possibly be with Talladega and the Charlotte Roval looming, it's important for the No. 11 team to hit the ground running at Kansas. 

MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 33-10

Larson spanked the field at Bristol last weekend, leading 462 of 500 laps and having the largest margin of victory in the Next Gen era (7.088 seconds). It's possible the No. 5 team could have similar results again this weekend. He was the victor in May, clipping Chris Buescher by .001 seconds en route to his second Kansas victory. The No. 5 team has six straight top-10 finishes here, with five of those being top fives. Spanning his last eight Kansas starts, Larson has led at least 60 laps on six occasions. 

MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

The regular season champion had a quiet Round of 16, but will return to Kansas as the defending winner of the fall event. Reddick executed an overtime restart last September to secure the victory. The No. 45 team struggled at Kansas in the spring, finishing 20th, but that’s been an outlier to the team’s true speed at intermediate tracks this season. And if you’re into conspiracy theories, the No. 45 car is undefeated in fall races at Kansas in the Next Gen era. 

MUST START:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota 

Odds: 12-1

With how the last five months have gone for Truex, I’m hesitant to list him as a driver that should be in your lineup this weekend. But Truex’s recent record at Kansas is hard to overlook. Outside of cutting a tire in the opening laps of the fall race last year, Truex has top 10 finishes in nine of the last 10 Kansas races. He can also race more freely after getting eliminated from the playoffs in the Round of 16. Truex’s last top five finish in 2024 came at Kansas in the spring, 17 races ago. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 35-1

Not many drivers were more impressive in the Round of 16 than Bowman, who scored the most points of all drivers. The Round of 12 sets up well for the No. 48 team, beginning at one of Bowman’s best tracks in Kansas. In 13 starts at Kansas with Hendrick, Bowman has collected nine top-10 finishes and led north of 100 laps in this race two years ago. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 18-1

Unless someone can do the unthinkable, Buescher will always be on the losing end of the closest finish in Cup history. He will play the Kurt Busch role in the epic Darlington finish from 2003 with Ricky Craven. The spring race was a bit of an outlier for Buscher at Kansas, as he has just four top 10s in 17 starts. On the flip side, the No. 17 team has been competitive all season on intermediates. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 18-1

More than two calendar years have passed since Wallace’s most recent Cup victory at Kansas. That was amid a three-race stretch of consecutive top 10s at the Midwest track. The last two races haven’t been as pretty here, but the No. 23 team might be the strongest it's ever been despite missing the playoffs and is a consistent top-10 threat. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Seven years have flown by since Blaney recorded his last top-five finish at Kansas. All three of his top fives in the Sunflower State came while driving for the Wood Brothers. In 13 attempts with Penske, he has a trio of top 10s. Blaney will be a hefty pick in the second half of the playoffs, so I'm not wasting a start on him this weekend.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 22-1

Logano has a love/hate relationship with Kansas. He has a trio of victories at the track, including a 2020 triumph that advanced him to the Championship 4. But he has just a 40% top-10 percentage (12 out of 30 starts), which isn't ideal for the No. 22 team. Two of those have come in the last three races, though he was among the beneficiaries of the overtime restart last fall when Paul Wolfe converted a Hail Mary on strategy.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 30-1

The Cinderella run -- or maybe Dorthy since we’re heading to Kansas? -- continued for Briscoe, as he advanced to the Round of 12 for the second time in his career. The No. 14 team might need to rely on a superspeedway and a road course to advance out of this round, however, as Briscoe has struggled at Kansas. Through seven starts, he has an average finish of 21.1 and only has one result better than 19th. 

FEATURED MATCHUPS:

Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson

This is about as even of a matchup as you could think of no matter what drivers you pin up against one another at any track. Hamlin has top-five finishes in all five Next Gen races at Kansas, with Larson having four of his own and is the most recent Kansas winner. Toyota has largely dominated at the 1.5-mile track in recent seasons, but give me Larson this weekend, who has had sufficient speed at intermediates all year long.

Christopher Bell vs. William Byron

Since I picked a Hendrick driver above, let's go with the Joe Gibbs Racing entry in this battle. Bell has five top-10 finishes in the last six Kansas events while Byron has three results of 15th or worse over the last five starts. The No. 24 team has been streaky this season and has just two top-10 finishes in the last eight races.  

Chase Elliott vs. Tyler Reddick

No matter what team Reddick has driven for, he's always had speed at Kansas, even if the results didn't show it. Meanwhile, Elliott grinds out results and it's become one of his best intermediate tracks on the schedule with 11 top-10 finishes in 17 tries. Both drivers are available in my lineup, but I'll give the slight nod to Reddick.

Ryan Blaney vs. Joey Logano

These Team Penske teammates have had their moments at Kansas, but are both listed on my drivers to "stay away from" due to their inconsistency at this 1.5-mile layout. We discussed their highlights and recent record above, so I'll take Logano, though I'm not very confident in that pick. When the playoffs begin, the No. 22 team often rises to the occasion. 

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex. Jr., Chase Elliott

GARAGE: Bubba Wallace