Fantasy Fastlane: Toyota looking to remain perfect at Kansas in Next Gen era

In four Next Gen races at Kansas Speedway, Toyota has yet to be defeated. 23XI Racing, specifically the No. 45 car, has been lights out, winning three times. Last year’s spring race saw an epic last-lap battle between Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson, who is probably at the top of the line of drivers who could dethrone Toyota. But I would heavily suggest centering your lineup around Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI. 

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MUST START: 

Denny Hamlin | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota

Odds: 4-1

Hamlin is at the top of his game to start the 2024 Cup Series season. He and William Byron lead the way with three wins apiece but the No. 11 car clearly has a small advantage on raw speed everywhere aside from road courses. Thankfully for Hamlin, the Cup Series doesn’t use the infield portion of the track for its races. Hamlin has five straight top-five finishes at Kansas and hasn’t finished worse than fourth in the Next Gen car. 

MUST START: 

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 6-1

Reddick used a green-white-checkered finish to his advantage at Kansas during the playoffs last season to win at the 1.5-mile track. He scored top 10s in both Kansas races, leading 23 laps last spring. Dating back to 2022, he led a solid chunk of laps in both Kansas races as well when driving for Richard Childress Racing. And there’s just something about the No. 45 and Kansas. 

MUST START: 

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 19-5

Larson has been special at Kansas in six starts with Hendrick Motorsports, despite only having one victory. The No. 5 car has led at least 85 laps in four of the last six Kansas races, including both races last season. Larson is on a streak of five straight top 10s here.

MUST START: 

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 15-1

With consecutive DNFs at Talladega and Dover, Wallace has dipped below the playoff elimination line by two points. Kansas is the perfect track for the No. 23 team to get pointed in the right direction, as Wallace’s most recent victory came at Kansas in dominant fashion during the 2022 postseason. Had it not been for a flat tire during the Kansas race last fall, it’s highly likely he would be entering Kansas with four straight top 10s. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Bowman’s numbers stuck out at a track like Dover last weekend, where he’s become among the favorites on an annual basis. He hasn’t peaked to that level yet at Kansas, but did lead 107 laps in the 2022 playoff race en route to a fourth-place finish. In 12 Kansas starts with HMS, Bowman has eight top-10 efforts and a pair of 11th-place finishes. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 35-1

It doesn’t feel right to have Logano listed as a sleeper, but Ford remains winless through the opening three months of the 2024 season. Ryan Blaney struck while the iron was hot last season to win the championship, but Ford experienced many of the same woes in 2023. Logano, however, had an average finish of 5.5 at Kansas, though crew chief Paul Wolfe made a wonderful two-tire call in the fall to gain track position for the overtime finish. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Austin Dillon | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet

Odds: 250-1

It’s been an absolute cruel start to the season for Dillon and the No. 3 team. Across the board, RCR has been behind to start 2024, as Kyle Busch scored the team’s first top-five finish on a non-superspeedway last weekend at Dover. The number to watch here is 10, as Dillon has finished 10th in three of the last six Kansas races, tallying five top 15s. The No. 3 team could surely go for a top 10 this weekend, entering the weekend 31st in the championship standings. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 22-1

For the first half of Busch’s career, Kansas was a real struggle point for the two-time Cup champion. He still has dejection at the track on occasion, including a wreck in this race last season. Just 47% of Busch’s starts at Kansas have resulted in top-10 finishes, so it might be wise to stay away from the No. 8 team this weekend. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 55-1

With three wins late in the regular season last year, Buescher clearly had his breakout season. But even that didn’t stop his middling numbers at Kansas, earning an average finish of 22nd across the two races. Buescher has just one top-10 finish at Kansas since the spring of 2019, and even that came three years ago.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Chase Briscoe | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 80-1

The Cup Series is approaching the halfway point of the regular season and Briscoe is a bona fide playoff threat, sitting 14th on the playoff grid, 11 points above the elimination line. But the No. 14 team needs to lessen the blow at Kansas. In six Cup starts, he has only one finish better than 19th and an average finish of 21.2. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson

Hamlin and Larson have finished first and second six times in their careers, with Hamlin claiming the checkered flag all six times. It’s entirely realistic to think that the final laps at Kansas could play out similarly to Dover last weekend and Kansas last spring. Hamlin should get the slight advantage because of how dominant Toyota has been the last two seasons. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Bubba Wallace vs. Chase Elliott

Elliott is sneaky good at Kansas, highlighted by his victory in 2018. In what was a below-average season for the No. 9 team last year, he still had finishes of sixth and seventh, respectively, at Kansas. Wallace needs to put a full race together. Maybe he can do what his team owner did last weekend: win after two awful finishes.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Tyler Reddick vs. Christopher Bell

Along with Wallace, Bell absolutely needs to turn the ship in the right direction at Kansas. Fortunately for the No. 20 team, Bell was lights out in the final stage at Phoenix in March, punching his playoff ticket. With three finishes of 34th or worse in the last month, he’s sunk 11 spots in the championship standings to 17th. The No. 20 team does have four top 10s in the last five Kansas races, but wrecked out last spring. Reddick has proved to finish races strong this season, so let’s roll with the No. 45 car.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Ty Gibbs vs. Noah Gragson

What Gragson has done with the No. 10 team should not be overlooked. He’s consistently a threat for a good result, entering Kansas with consecutive top 10s for the first time in his Cup career. It’s hard to believe he will outrun Gibbs, who also needs to get his season pointed back in the right direction. 

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Bubba Wallace, Martin Truex Jr.

GARAGE: Chase Elliott