Fantasy Fastlane: Tyler Reddick is a necessity for COTA

The first road-course race of the season is upon us, and all eyes will be pointed to the picturesque Circuit of The Americas this weekend. With portions of the 20-turn layout repaved since the last time the Cup Series visited COTA, Tyler Reddick stated earlier this week that if teams show up this weekend with what they raced last year, they will be behind. If that’s the case, the rest of the field will want the No. 45 team to be exactly how they were last season. 

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MUST START: 

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 9-2

While Reddick won only once on road courses last season, it came at COTA in dominant fashion. At times in practice, the No. 45 car had the field covered by half a second. That’s unheard of at any race track in the Next Gen era. In three COTA starts, Reddick has never qualified outside the top five and his worst finish is ninth. He will rightfully be featured in plenty of lineups this weekend. 

MUST START: 

Ross Chastain | View stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

In the two races at COTA in the Next Gen car, Chastain has an average finish of 2.5, scoring his coveted first Cup Series win in 2022. That season, he was featured inside the top 10 at most road courses, which wasn’t the case last season. Leaning on recent COTA history, however, Chastain will be a contender on Sunday.

MUST START: 

Alex Bowman | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet

Odds: 25-1

Bowman has always been an underrated road-course driver. He has consecutive top-three results at COTA entering the weekend. Had a few things gone differently, he could have won in each of the last two years – and he was in an epic battle with Chastain and AJ Allmendinger in 2022. This could be a sneaky pick for your lineup. 

MUST START: 

AJ Allmendinger | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 13 Chevrolet

Odds: 15-1

Whoa, what’s that? Don’t overlook Allmendinger this weekend, as he will be driving the unfamiliar No. 13 car, a third entry for Kaulig Racing. It’s always uncertain how open cars may perform, but it’s hard to imagine Allmendinger won’t have a realistic shot at winning on Sunday. We mentioned his strong showing in 2022 earlier when he was bumped by Chastain on the final lap while racing for the win. Last year, he was running inside the top five before he was caught up in a late wreck.  

SLEEPER PICK: 

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 17-1

“Come on, Dustin, McDowell isn’t a surprise on a road course!” Well, he might say otherwise for COTA. He has struggled in qualifying at the 3.4-mile track, scoring a best starting spot of 20th in three races. His average finish of 10.7 is quite solid, but it’s certainly not his best road course on the schedule. Either way, he’s a good driver to have in your lineup this weekend, particularly with how much speed Front Row has shown early in the season.

SLEEPER PICK: 

Shane van Gisbergen | View stats

Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet

Odds: 9-1

Much attention will be put on van Gisbergen this weekend, purely for what he did with no experience last season. Aside from being the first driver to win in their series debut since Johnny Rutherford did so in 1963 – 60 years prior – van Gisbergen backed that up with a convincing 10th-place showing at the Indianapolis road course. Another such run would bode well for your lineup this weekend. One cause for concern is there will be cautions for stage breaks, meaning more restarts for a relatively inexperienced stock-car competitor. 

SLEEPER PICK: 

Austin Cindric | View stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 28-1

With how Team Penske’s road-course program seemingly took a step back last season, it might be a distant memory to remember just how adequate Cindric is when turning left and right. In three COTA starts, he has a pair of top 10s, including a sixth-place effort last season. The No. 2 team needs to turn the corner this weekend, as Cindric has three straight finishes of 29th or worse.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Joey Logano | View stats

Team Penske, No. 22 Ford

Odds: 55-1

Logano has had a rough go the last two seasons since finishing third in the torrential downpour in COTA’s first Cup race. The No. 22 car has placed 28th and 31st, respectively, over the last two seasons here. It’s also concerning that through five races this season, he has four finishes outside the top 20 and ranks 26th in the championship standings. This isn’t a week to burn a use up on Logano. 

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 100-1

It’s a good thing that Keselowski has consecutive top fives entering this weekend because COTA will likely be a hit in points. In 12 starts on road courses in the Next Gen car, the 2012 champion’s lone top 10 came at Sonoma in 2022, finishing 10th. In three COTA starts, he has an average finish of 22.7 and has yet to lead a lap. Save Keselowski for next week at Richmond.

STAY AWAY FROM: 

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 110-1

Wallace has improved drastically on road courses over the last couple of seasons. With the addition of Reddick to 23XI last season, he typically would follow the three-time road course victor around during practice to get a feel for the track if they were in the same group. The objective this weekend is to run every lap, as he’s DNF’d all three times at COTA. It can only go up for Wallace this weekend. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Kyle Busch vs. Denny Hamlin

Joe Gibbs Racing had a bounce-back season on road courses in 2023 after struggling mightily on them in the Next Gen’s first year. Hamlin has mid-pack numbers at COTA, earning a best finish of 14th. Busch was runner-up last season in his first try with Richard Childress Racing. We have opposite extremes on pit road this year, though, as Hamlin’s No. 11 team is arguably the best, while Busch’s No. 8 team has changed on a near-weekly basis over the last month. A bad pit stop could put Busch behind where the No. 11 team will excel. Hamlin is the pick. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Tyler Reddick vs. Kyle Larson 

There will be many players on the Reddick bandwagon this weekend. He’s proven to be one of the best drivers at COTA, commanding last year’s race. Larson wrestled his car to a 14th-place finish. Both drivers are superb on road courses, but Reddick should get the slight edge relative to COTA.

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Daniel Suárez vs. Ross Chastain

If we recall the end of last year’s COTA race, Suárez was unhappy with his Trackhouse Racing teammate. Both drivers ran the majority of last year’s race inside the top five, and Suárez had the dominant car in the opening stage of the 2022 race before Chastain won. I’ve got both drivers available in my lineup this weekend but would lean slightly in the favor of Chastain. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: 

Alex Bowman vs. Austin Cindric

Both drivers were listed as potential players earlier and both drivers have also proven to be inconsistent to begin the 2024 season. Cindric is due for a breakout race, as his road-course numbers slipped to just a pair of top 10s last season. Bowman is the play here because he’s shown he can contend for the win each of the last two races at COTA.

MY LINEUP: Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, AJ Allmendinger, Daniel Suárez 

GARAGE: Kyle Busch