Fantasy Fastlane: Why Denny Hamlin is must-start material in Miami

MUST START:
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 7-1
In Hamlin’s career at Homestead, he’s been fortunate with three wins. But he’s suffered from heartbreak, losing the 2010 and 2019 championships. The No. 11 car always seems to be relevant, though, despite having just five top-five finishes in 17 starts. The No. 11 team is on a roll in the postseason, earning four top-five finishes. The same team had five such finishes in the entire regular season.

MUST START:
Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
On the "Door, Bumper, Clear" podcast episode leading into Vegas, Reddick stated he liked his chances better at Las Vegas than at Homestead. I’ll call bluff on that. No driver in the Cup Series is better at running inches from the wall than Reddick, and it’s paid off at Homestead with two Xfinity Series championships. Reddick was good at Vegas, but expect him to be a frequent contender this weekend.

MUST START:
Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Before Reddick entered the Cup scene, Larson was the show at Homestead, always running against the wall. Unfortunately for him, one slip-up in the old car and his race was over. But with the Next Gen’s composite body, this could finally be the weekend that Larson breaks through at Homestead.

MUST START:
Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 18-1
Prior to Las Vegas, the consensus around Ford on intermediate tracks was that it struggled. That wasn’t the case last Sunday. Harvick was comfortable with his car and, at times, ran inside the top five. Expect him to better that this weekend. In 21 starts at Homestead, the 2014 champion – when he won at Homestead – has 12 top-five efforts, seven of those coming in the last eight races.

SLEEPER PICK:
Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 28-1
It wasn’t long ago that Briscoe was seven laps off the pace in an Xfinity Series race at Homestead and still managed a seventh-place result. Homestead is his favorite track on the schedule, and the series goes there at the right time for the No. 14 team. Since Texas, he’s scored four straight top 10s. Prior to this streak, Briscoe had four such finishes in the opening 29 races of 2022. He’s gotten hot at the right time.

SLEEPER PICK:
Michael McDowell | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford
Odds: 125-1
At Homestead in 2021, McDowell shocked everyone with a sixth-place run two weeks after winning the Daytona 500. His first top 10 at a non-superspeedway also came at Homestead in 2016. With 12 top-10 finishes this year, it shouldn’t surprise anybody if the No. 34 car is in the mix on Sunday.

SLEEPER PICK:
Noah Gragson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
One of the drivers I’m curious about this weekend is Gragson. Though he’s also had his fair share of heartbreak at Homestead in the Xfinity Series, he’s been elite over the last three races, leading 198 laps. Pair that experience with a Hendrick Motorsports entry, and Gragson might have a shot at his second top 10 in the Cup Series.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
While Las Vegas and Homestead look nothing alike, they do have similar characteristics. And Elliott was a non-factor last weekend, spending the majority of the race outside of the top 20. The No. 9 team has struggled in the postseason at intermediates, so use him for the final two races of 2022.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Save, save, save. Chances are you’ve used Logano a few times this postseason, and now that he’s locked into the Championship 4, Paul Wolfe has three weeks to work on the No. 22 team’s championship car. Homestead and Martinsville will be an afterthought, though obviously, Logano could be competitive in both and won at both tracks in 2018.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Chris Buescher | View stats
RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Buescher is having a career year in 2022, but not so much on intermediates. RFK has struggled on said tracks, with all 10 of Buescher’s top 10s coming on short tracks, superspeedways or road courses. None at intermediates.

MY LINEUP: Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr.

GARAGE: William Byron

FEATURED MATCHUP: Ryan Blaney vs. Joey Logano

Coming off a disappointing finish in Sin City, Blaney will need to score a plethora of points this weekend at Homestead. Meanwhile, Logano will solely be chasing the win. Both drivers said last week that the Homestead test last month helped turn the corner on intermediates. Either driver could win, but the No. 12 team will score more points.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Kyle Larson vs. Kyle Busch

Comparing these two on paper at Homestead is a near-even matchup, despite Busch having more than double the amount of starts. Toyota has been freaky fast on 1.5-mile layouts of late but has only seen Denny Hamlin and Bubba Wallace get into Victory Lane on such tracks. Because Larson has taken to South Beach so well, the No. 5 team gets my vote.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Chase Briscoe vs. William Byron

Surprisingly, this might be the most even matchup of the weekend. Briscoe loves Homestead, and Byron is the defending race winner. On Thursday, Briscoe said he thought he had the second-best car at the test last month (only behind Hamlin). Based on raw speed in 2022, however, Byron is the choice.

FEATURED MATCHUP: Denny Hamlin vs. Chase Elliott

Quietly, Hamlin is having a solid postseason. Nothing too flashy, just scoring top 10 after top 10. Elliott has been inconsistent and lacked speed at Darlington, Kansas, Texas and Las Vegas, all intermediate tracks. Choose the No. 11 team.