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Fantasy Fastlane: Why would you avoid Kevin Harvick at Fontana?
By RJ Kraft | Published: February 28, 2020 17
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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NASCAR Digital Media
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from Penn National Gaming.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has four wins at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California, with three victories in the last six races. He also has six top-three finishes in his last nine starts there. His 50.0 average points are the most over the last three races at the 2-mile track. Simply put: He's the top play.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has four wins at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California, with three victories in the last six races. He also has six top-three finishes in his last nine starts there. His 50.0 average points are the most over the last three races at the 2-mile track. Simply put: He's the top play.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Las Vegas Motor Speedway has four straight top-five finishes at Auto Club and one finish outside the top seven in his past seven starts there. Over the past three races in Fontana, Logano has an average of 45 points per race -- the third highest. Expect him to pick up where he left off out West.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Las Vegas Motor Speedway has four straight top-five finishes at Auto Club and one finish outside the top seven in his past seven starts there. Over the past three races in Fontana, Logano has an average of 45 points per race -- the third highest. Expect him to pick up where he left off out West.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Despite no stage points, Keselowski finished seventh at Las Vegas -- one of his better tracks in his Cup career. Auto Club has also been a strong spot for the 2012 champ. He won this race in 2015 and has four top-four finishes and no finish outside the top 10 in his last five races there. This is a good spot to play him.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Despite no stage points, Keselowski finished seventh at Las Vegas -- one of his better tracks in his Cup career. Auto Club has also been a strong spot for the 2012 champ. He won this race in 2015 and has four top-four finishes and no finish outside the top 10 in his last five races there. This is a good spot to play him.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex won this race in 2018 and has not finished outside the top eight in the last three races there. That stretch has seen him average 40.3 points -- second only to Busch. There could be some growing pains in the early going with new crew chief James Small, but we feel confident Truex will be just fine.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Truex won this race in 2018 and has not finished outside the top eight in the last three races there. That stretch has seen him average 40.3 points -- second only to Busch. There could be some growing pains in the early going with new crew chief James Small, but we feel confident Truex will be just fine.
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Matt Sullivan | Getty Images
Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's overall body of work at Auto Club is far from spectacular. However, three of his seven top 10s here have come in his last four starts. His average of 35 points over the last three Fontana races is sixth best. Expect a good starting spot; he has started in the top six in seven of the last eight races here.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's overall body of work at Auto Club is far from spectacular. However, three of his seven top 10s here have come in his last four starts. His average of 35 points over the last three Fontana races is sixth best. Expect a good starting spot; he has started in the top six in seven of the last eight races here.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 13-1
Fastlane forecast: Say hello to your points leader and the current hot hand as the early returns on Blaney's pairing with Todd Gordon have been strong. YRB has scored 43 and 42 points in the season’s first two races. He also carries three straight top 10s in Fontana and an average of 33.7 points over that time.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 13-1
Fastlane forecast: Say hello to your points leader and the current hot hand as the early returns on Blaney's pairing with Todd Gordon have been strong. YRB has scored 43 and 42 points in the season’s first two races. He also carries three straight top 10s in Fontana and an average of 33.7 points over that time.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Kyle Larson | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Let us re-introduce "Two-Mile Kyle." Four of Larson's six Cup wins have come at 2-mile tracks with one of those victories occurring in Fontana. The California kid has three top-two finishes at the track and only three finishes of 12th or worse, so there's a level of volatility in those results.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 15-2
Fastlane forecast: Let us re-introduce "Two-Mile Kyle." Four of Larson's six Cup wins have come at 2-mile tracks with one of those victories occurring in Fontana. The California kid has three top-two finishes at the track and only three finishes of 12th or worse, so there's a level of volatility in those results.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott looked to be the car to beat for much of the day at Las Vegas before a cut tire derailed his day. On the plus side, he has three stage wins already. The sport's most popular driver has three top-11 finishes in four Auto Club starts and an average of 31.8 points over that stretch -- seventh best in the field.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott looked to be the car to beat for much of the day at Las Vegas before a cut tire derailed his day. On the plus side, he has three stage wins already. The sport's most popular driver has three top-11 finishes in four Auto Club starts and an average of 31.8 points over that stretch -- seventh best in the field.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: A six-time winner in Fontana as a sleeper? He's better than a sleeper, right? Well, when you have one top five at Auto Club since 2011 and are fresh off just your fourth top five in 61 races, you are a sleeper. That said, the short-run speed is solid and crew chief Cliff Daniels has placed a priority on stage points. If this team can dial in some long-run mojo, look out.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: A six-time winner in Fontana as a sleeper? He's better than a sleeper, right? Well, when you have one top five at Auto Club since 2011 and are fresh off just your fourth top five in 61 races, you are a sleeper. That said, the short-run speed is solid and crew chief Cliff Daniels has placed a priority on stage points. If this team can dial in some long-run mojo, look out.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: What if I told you Auto Club was Dillon’s third-best track by average finish (13.7) and he has four top-11 finishes in six starts? Would that be something that interests you? It certainly makes me take notice, as does his fourth-place Las Vegas finish. He's worth watching in practice.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: What if I told you Auto Club was Dillon’s third-best track by average finish (13.7) and he has four top-11 finishes in six starts? Would that be something that interests you? It certainly makes me take notice, as does his fourth-place Las Vegas finish. He's worth watching in practice.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto is coming off a runner-up finish at Las Vegas -- the second runner-up of his Cup career. His previous Auto Club results are nothing to speak glowingly about, but like Vegas, this is a track where Team Penske has fared well. That bodes well for its alliance team and makes him someone to monitor.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto is coming off a runner-up finish at Las Vegas -- the second runner-up of his Cup career. His previous Auto Club results are nothing to speak glowingly about, but like Vegas, this is a track where Team Penske has fared well. That bodes well for its alliance team and makes him someone to monitor.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK: Erik Jones | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones' 2020 season has gotten off to a slow start, but Fontana could be a good place for him to turn it around. In three starts at the 2-mile track, the young driver has averaged 33.3 points with no total under 27 in a race. An added bonus: He has scored stage points in all six stages at this venue.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Jones' 2020 season has gotten off to a slow start, but Fontana could be a good place for him to turn it around. In three starts at the 2-mile track, the young driver has averaged 33.3 points with no total under 27 in a race. An added bonus: He has scored stage points in all six stages at this venue.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has won in Fontana and owns five top-four finishes in his last nine starts there. Why avoid? You have 10 uses over 26 races and with Phoenix Raceway, Atlanta Motor Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway all coming up -- tracks he's really strong at and stronger than Auto Club -- you run out of uses real fast before the one-third mark if you don't make tough choices.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick has won in Fontana and owns five top-four finishes in his last nine starts there. Why avoid? You have 10 uses over 26 races and with Phoenix Raceway, Atlanta Motor Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway all coming up -- tracks he's really strong at and stronger than Auto Club -- you run out of uses real fast before the one-third mark if you don't make tough choices.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman looked fast all weekend at Las Vegas, but I'll chalk that up to his strength on 1.5-milers and file it away for later in March for the three straight 1.5-mile range races. In two starts with Hendrick at Auto Club, he has an average of 20 points and an average finish of 17.0 in those races.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman looked fast all weekend at Las Vegas, but I'll chalk that up to his strength on 1.5-milers and file it away for later in March for the three straight 1.5-mile range races. In two starts with Hendrick at Auto Club, he has an average of 20 points and an average finish of 17.0 in those races.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM: Cole Custer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Custer won the Xfinity Series race in Fontana last year. However, we are using Custer as a cautionary tale (and after liking Christopher Bell as a sleeper last week) to not get too excited about the rookies for fantasy. There are going to be growing pains, and the best tactic by in large is to be patient and deploy these drivers in the second half of the season.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 100-1
Fastlane forecast: Custer won the Xfinity Series race in Fontana last year. However, we are using Custer as a cautionary tale (and after liking Christopher Bell as a sleeper last week) to not get too excited about the rookies for fantasy. There are going to be growing pains, and the best tactic by in large is to be patient and deploy these drivers in the second half of the season.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
My lineup heading into the weekend: Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott; Garage: Jimmie Johnson.
Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece Saturday for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece Saturday for the final lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.