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Ndm Aalvarez Ncs Pho Ncs 11
BACK TO GALLERIES

Four-race findings: Early observations, stats from the 2020 Cup Series season to date

By Zack Albert | Published: March 9, 2020 9
Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media
BACK TO GALLERIES

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Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media

Can four races constitute a trend? Extrapolating the observations from a quartet of NASCAR Cup Series events rarely holds up over the course of an entire season, but with a showcase race and the West Coast stretch in the books, there's already an intriguing statistics yield. While taking great care not to read too much into the smaller sample size, here are eight early impressions and learnings from the first four races of 2020.

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AVONDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08: Joey Logano, driver of the #22 Shell Pennzoil Ford, leads during the NASCAR Cup Series FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 08, 2020 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Chris Graythen | Getty Images

A PARTY OF PARITY: Through four races, a total of 17 drivers have netted top-five finishes, with Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch clocking in as the only repeaters. In the first three races, five fresh faces topped the leaderboard each week, a variety that had been unprecedented in NASCAR's top division. Just 26 drivers scored top-five results all of last season, so the pace for cumulative top fives will taper off as the schedule rolls on. For now, it's a feather in the cap for teams eager to build on modest early successes.

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AVONDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08: Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Jimmy John's Freaky Fast Rewards Ford, leads a pack of cars during the NASCAR Cup Series FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 08, 2020 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Chris Graythen | Getty Images

4 FOR 4 FOR NO. 4: Amid the early parity, one driver has stood alone in terms of consistency. Kevin Harvick is the only driver to go 4-for-4 in claiming top-10 finishes this season, which has helped propel the Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Ford team to the NASCAR Cup Series points lead. Though he doesn't have a victory -- yet -- to show for it, Harvick's steady performance has kept him in the hunt. He's also topped the driver rating category twice already, at Las Vegas and last weekend at a familiar winning haunt at Phoenix. Only Kyle Larson is close in the top-10 category with three this season; nine other drivers each have two. Harvick and Larson are also the only two drivers to start every race this season in the top 10.

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Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media

THE BIG SHORT: A significantly chopped spoiler and other aerodynamic changes at Phoenix Raceway marked the debut of new Cup Series rules for shorter ovals and road courses. From a one-race snap review, those alterations seemed to take. Restarts were typically bonkers, but catching and passing other cars in a longer run wasn't entirely dependent on the cleanliness of airflow in traffic. Tire wear, the variable of traction compound and the aero improvements all factored in. "Those unknowns made it a great race," said Phoenix winner Joey Logano. "Even as the teams figured it out throughout the race, it still produced good racing where cars were able to pass, get close to other cars, do things. Just a way better short-track package than what we had last year."

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Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media

PENSKE PAYOFF: Let's just trust that there's a method to Roger Penske's madness. A wholesale shake-up of his three-team lineup of driver-crew chief pairings before the season was far less of a dice roll and more of a calculated measure to jump-start a performance spike. So far, it's taking hold -- especially the syncing of Joey Logano with Paul Wolfe, a combo that's captured two wins in just four races for the No. 22 team. Ryan Blaney and crew chief Todd Gordon led the early Cup Series standings until a Phoenix DNF, and Brad Keselowski (with new crew chief Jeremy Bullins) was among the strongest contenders at Phoenix until a late fade. All three Penske teams are among the top 10 in standings as expected. A nickname like "The Captain" doesn't come by accident given Penske's business and leadership acumen, so it's wise to trust the process, even early on.

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LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - FEBRUARY 21:  Martin Truex Jr., driver of the #19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota, during practice for the NASCAR Cup Series at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on February 21, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images

TRUEX TESTED: Three members of last year's Championship 4 have set sail with relatively smooth waters, but an uncharacteristic slow start has bugged Martin Truex Jr., who still lacks a top-10 finish in his stat line. Those numbers are marred by a pair of crash-related DNFs (Daytona, Phoenix), and the frustration has been evident -- both in his antagonism for rival Aric Almirola's bumper at Phoenix or his chirpy radio communications after a jostle-heavy trip to Fontana the weekend before. There's plenty of time for Truex to click with new crew chief James Small, but for now, having his No. 19 Toyota simply close out races would help soothe matters.

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Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media

NEW STEER FOR CHEVY: Chevrolet landed just one win through the first 16 Cup Series races last season, but early indications are that a more shapely 2020 Camaro nose has helped stoke the competitive fires for Hendrick Motorsports and the rest of the bowtie camp. All three manufacturers have visited Victory Lane this year, but Alex Bowman's dominant Auto Club win and a rejuvenated Jimmie Johnson stand out as early perks. Bowman, Johnson and teammate Chase Elliott make up three of the top five in the current Cup Series standings. Through four races last season, no Chevy drivers were among the top five and the highest-ranking Hendrick shoe was Elliott in a distant 13th place.

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AVONDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 08: Tyler Reddick, driver of the #8 I Am Second Chevrolet, leads a pack of cars during the NASCAR Cup Series FanShield 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 08, 2020 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Chris Graythen | Getty Images

REDDICK RANKS: A 25th-place showing in the early standings won't show it, but Tyler Reddick has demonstrated thus far that he has the driving chops to make a go of this. The two-time Xfinity Series champ made a gallant drive up from the 29th starting spot to as high as second place in the running order before a late crash derailed him at Phoenix. He still has plenty to learn in his Sunoco Rookie of the Year campaign -- see: overshooting his pit stall late in Phoenix, being shuffled out of line by the veterans in a late-race restart at Fontana -- but there's plenty of talent there to be molded, a reason car owner Richard Childress has been so bullish on the 24-year-old driver.

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Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media

QUICK-HIT STAT QUIRKS: Statistical oddities tend to spring forth from the early handful of races, and the 2020 sampling doesn't disappoint. David Ragan has more points in his lone Cup Series race this year (fourth place in the Daytona 500) than Christopher Bell and Ryan Preece have in four. Both Bell and Preece have two DNFs, and a pre-race penalty at Fontana meant a further deficit for the JTG Daugherty driver. ... Joe Gibbs Racing won 19 of 36 races a year ago. Though they've won already this year (Denny Hamlin at Daytona), no JGR drivers rank in the top 10 in standings through four races. ... Jimmie Johnson and Matt DiBenedetto are tied for the biggest improvement in the standings, both rising by an impressive 13 spots from last year to this year at this point in the season.
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