How drivers can punch playoff ticket at Darlington

The Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway is all that sits between the drivers and the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. There's still a lot up for grabs Sunday night as the Regular Season Championship and the final three drivers in the 16-driver postseason field are yet to be determined (6 p.m. ET, USA, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).  

Taking a look at the playoff bubble, here are scenarios and possibilities of every driver yet to clinch a playoff spot that could have a shot to do so at "The Lady in Black." 

RELATED: Darlington schedule

MARTIN TRUEX JR.

Entering Darlington: +58 to elimination line

Clinching scenarios: Truex will be in the playoffs regardless of finish with a repeat winner Sunday or with 19 points if a new winner emerges

Outlook: Truex is limping into the postseason as it stands. He just has a best finish of 24th in the last four races and still looking for his first win his final full-time Cup season. He's a two-time winner at Darlington, winning the Southern 500 in 2016. 

TY GIBBS

Entering Darlington: +39 to elimination line

Clinching scenarios: Gibbs will be in the playoffs with 16 points with a repeat winner or 38 points if a new winner emerges. 

Outlook: A grueling 500 miles at Darlington will be tough on the sophomore Cup driver to make the playoffs, but a decent cushion will provide some breathing room for Gibbs, as well as coming off a runner-up result at "The Lady in Black" in the spring. 

CHRIS BUESCHER

Entering Darlington: +21 to elimination line

Clinching scenarios: Buescher will be in the playoffs with 34 points if there's no new winner on Sunday but will need help with a new winner at Darlington. 

Outlook: A regular season plagued by heartbreak, the epicenter of Buescher's luck in 2024 took place in the spring at Darlington as what looked a first or second-place finish turned to a bent race car and bent feelings as the No. 17 driver bullrushed Tyler Reddick post-race as the two made contact in the closing laps. Some good news for Buescher is that he finished third in the Southern 500 last year, which would be more than enough to move him into the postseason this year. 

BUBBA WALLACE

Entering Darlington: -21 to elimination line

Clinching scenarios: Wallace will need significant help regardless of if there's a new winner or not on Sunday. 

Outlook: Five top 10s in the last seven races and having the second-best average finish in the last five races (10.2) may be all for naught as Harrison Burton shocked the Cup field with his rousing Daytona win last weekend. Wallace still rides a lot of momentum and should be confident at Darlington with four consecutive top 10s. 

ROSS CHASTAIN

Entering Darlington: -27 to elimination line

Clinching scenarios: Chastain will need significant help regardless of if there's a new winner or not on Sunday.

Outlook: It's been a regular season to forget for Chastain and while he was able to recover to a 12th-place finish at Daytona, he has a significant deficit to overcome to make the playoffs. Chastain has been inconsistent at Darlington but does own two top-five finishes in the last three Southern 500s. 

KYLE BUSCH

Clinching scenarios: Busch can only make the playoffs with a win.

Outlook: The best-case scenario after a Daytona heartbreaker is that the two-time Cup champ has momentum after complete performances the last two weeks. A Southern 500 winner in 2008, Busch will need to find that magic once again if he wants to make the playoffs. 

CHASE BRISCOE

Clinching scenarios: Briscoe can only make the playoffs with a win. 

Outlook: Stewart-Haas Racing had one of its overall outings of the season in the spring at Darlington, scoring two top fives with Josh Berry and Briscoe. Briscoe scored an emotional Xfinity Series win at the track in 2020 and knows how to get around the track with just one Darlington finish outside the top 20 in his Cup career. 

TODD GILLILAND 

Clinching scenarios: Gilliland can only make the playoffs with a win. 

Outlook: Regardless of how Sunday plays out, 2024 has been a breakout year for Gilliland. An average finish of 19.8 entering Darlington is trending toward the best in his first three seasons in Cup along with over 100 laps led and matching a career-best in top 10s (4). Gilliland finished 15th at Darlington in the spring. 

CARSON HOCEVAR 

Clinching scenarios: Hocevar can only make the playoffs with a win. 

Outlook: An average finish of 11.6 in the last five races is good enough for fourth best among Cup drivers for the rookie in that stretch. Hocevar impressed in last year's Southern 500 with a top 20 in his first attempt in the race. 

MICHAEL MCDOWELL 

Clinching scenarios: McDowell can only make the playoffs with a win. 

Outlook: 2024 has been a transitional year for McDowell as he and crew chief Travis Peterson move to Spire Motorsports next season. Darlington has been hit-or-miss for McDowell, but he was 10th at the track in the spring.  

JOSH BERRY 

Clinching scenarios: Berry can only make the playoffs with a win. 

Outlook: One of the more intriguing drivers to watch Sunday, Berry's race craft took him to a third-place result at Darlington in the spring and despite going on his roof late at Daytona, he was among one of the best drivers in the race and can ride that positivity into Sunday. 

ERIK JONES 

Clinching scenarios: Jones can only make the playoffs with a win. 

Outlook: One can't think of the Southern 500 in the last decade without mentioning Jones' name. A two-time winner of the physically-demanding race, the Michigan native is one of the best at Darlington at the Cup level. In the Southern 500 specifically, Jones has only failed to finish outside the top 10 once. 

AUSTIN DILLON 

Clinching scenarios: Dillon can only make the playoffs with a win. 

Outlook: Similar to Richmond, Darlington has been a sneaky-good track for Dillon in his Cup career. He has a best finish of second at the track that came in the 2020 edition of the Southern 500. But the Next Gen era hasn't served Dillon well at Darlington as he has an average finish of 21.8.