Martinsville preview: Best, worst outlooks for Round of 8 finale

The grandfather clock will strike 12 for half of the Cup Series contenders Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, eliminating them from title contention. Three of the elusive Championship 4 spots are up for grabs, leaving NASCAR.com to rank which remaining drivers have the best and worst outlooks based on current trends and previous track performances.

SAFE AND SOUND: Joey Logano

Logano capitalized on the "win and you’re in" theme, securing a hard-fought victory at Kansas Speedway to solidify his place in the race for the 2020 championship trophy in Phoenix.

BEST: Kevin Harvick

Average finish at Martinsville: 14.9 (fourth among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Martinsville: 15th (won in 2011)

Comment: The No. 4 crew’s consistency has fallen off a bit in recent weeks, but a career-best nine wins in 2020 has given him a significant points cushion. Heading into the Round of 8 elimination race 42 points in the green, expect Harvick to make a fourth consecutive appearance in the Championship 4.

BEST: Denny Hamlin

Average finish at Martinsville: 9.9 (leads all remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Martinsville: 24th (won in 2015, twice in 2010, 2009 and 2008)

Comment: Five career wins and eight finishes of eighth or better in the last 12 Martinsville races — that is the impressive tale of the tape for Hamlin. An incredible regular season has kept him near the top of the standings after cooling down a bit during the playoffs, but he remains a threat to win each week. A win from a driver below the cutline would turn up the pressure on Hamlin to outpace Brad Keselowski.

BEST: Brad Keselowski

Average finish at Martinsville: 10.5 (second among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Martinsville: 3rd (won in 2019 and 2017)

Comment: Keselowski has a firm point grip on the final transfer spot ahead of a track that he has excelled at in recent years. He has eight top five finishes in his last nine races there, including a pair of wins, and has scored stage points in 10 of the 14. Like Hamlin, a major concern is a win from a driver below the cut line, setting him up for a point race with the No. 11.

WORST: Chase Elliott

Average finish at Martinsville: 15.9 (fifth among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Martinsville: 5th

Comment: Coming off an expectedly dominant performance at the Charlotte Roval, Elliott’s title hopes were significantly trending upward. With a hit or miss Round of 8, plagued by a variety of issues, the No. 9 team finds themselves in a tricky situation. He has shown the speed to race ahead of the pack here, leading at least 20 laps in three of the last seven. Elliott and company most likely need to rebound for at least one more checkered flag run.

WORST: Alex Bowman

Average finish at Martinsville: 22.0 (last among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Martinsville: 6th

Comment: Despite a career-best sixth-place effort in the spring race, Bowman’s performances at Martinsville have been shaky throughout his career. He has put together the best numbers of his career in 2020, but without many trips to Victory Lane, history favors the other contender in this near must-win situation at a place he has never led a single lap.

WORST: Kurt Busch

Average finish at Martinsville: 20.1 (seventh among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Martinsville: 9th (won in 2014 and 2002)

Comment: The elder Busch brother needs a win. Plain and simple. Eighty-one points below the cutline and at the bottom of the playoff standings, there is no other way for him to advance. While he has tasted victory here multiple times before and has three top 10s in the last four at Martinsville, the No. 1 crew certainly has the grimmest outlook of the bunch.

WILD CARD: Martin Truex Jr.

Average finish at Martinsville: 16.8 (sixth among remaining playoff drivers)

Most recent finish at Martinsville: Winner (also won in 2019)

Comment: 36 points out of the Championship 4 and still the favorite to win at Martinsville? Truex’s near-win earlier this week at Texas Motor Speedway sends him out for one more shot at redemption. Winner of the last two at “The Paperclip” and leader of 464 laps in this race a year ago, all bets are on for the former Cup Series champion to shake up the title race heading to Phoenix. Can anyone stop his Martinsville hot streak?