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Meet the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoff field
By RJ Kraft | Tuesday, September 1, 2020
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The NASCAR Cup Series' 16-driver playoff field is set for the 2020 postseason. The four-round postseason consists of eliminations after the Round of 16 (Darlington, Richmond, Bristol), the Round of 12 (Las Vegas, Talladega, Charlotte Roval) and the Round of 8 (Kansas, Texas, Martinsville). The Championship 4 will compete for the title at Phoenix. Before the start of the playoffs, RJ Kraft breaks down each playoff driver with a look at his playoff elimination history (since the current postseason format was installed in 2014), favorable track, plus strengths and weaknesses to keep in mind as the playoff drama unfolds.
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1. Kevin Harvick: 2,057 points, 7 wins
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Elimination history: Won championship in 2014; Reached Championship 4 in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016.
Favorable track: Phoenix with nine wins and an average finish of 9.0 in 35 starts. He has 14 consecutive top-10 finishes there.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Kevin Harvick, continued
Strengths: Harvick has had the best car all year, and there is no reason to expect that not to continue in the playoffs. Crew chief Rodney Childers has done some of his finest work this season, with the strategy of the team's Indianapolis win really standing out. Harvick is the favorite to make it to Phoenix, and with nine wins at the 1-mile track, he will most definitely be the favorite to take home the championship in that race. The 2014 champ also has a knack for rising to the occasion when his back is against the wall (see: Phoenix win in 2014, Dover in 2015).
Weaknesses: Hard to really see a weakness for Harvick, but if we were to nit-pick, two of his finishes outside the top 10 have come at short tracks. That might suggest the Round of 16 -- with Richmond and Bristol among the three races -- could be more stressful than expected if he doesn’t have a solid result at Darlington to start.
Strengths: Harvick has had the best car all year, and there is no reason to expect that not to continue in the playoffs. Crew chief Rodney Childers has done some of his finest work this season, with the strategy of the team's Indianapolis win really standing out. Harvick is the favorite to make it to Phoenix, and with nine wins at the 1-mile track, he will most definitely be the favorite to take home the championship in that race. The 2014 champ also has a knack for rising to the occasion when his back is against the wall (see: Phoenix win in 2014, Dover in 2015).
Weaknesses: Hard to really see a weakness for Harvick, but if we were to nit-pick, two of his finishes outside the top 10 have come at short tracks. That might suggest the Round of 16 -- with Richmond and Bristol among the three races -- could be more stressful than expected if he doesn’t have a solid result at Darlington to start.
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2. Denny Hamlin: 2,047 points, 6 wins
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Elimination history: Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2016, 2017; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2015; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2018.
Favorable track: Darlington with three wins and an average finish of 7.2 in 16 starts.
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Denny Hamlin, continued
Strengths: Hamlin has been a strong foil to Harvick in 2020 and the cream of the crop at Joe Gibbs Racing. You cannot understate the impact crew chief Chris Gabehart has had on Hamlin and the No. 11 team in just two seasons, with strategy helping Hamlin to wins at Darlington and Kansas in 2020. The opening Round of 16 (eight wins at those tracks) stands as a real opportunity for Hamlin to pad his playoff point tally before a tricky Round of 12. The Round of 8 is a strength as well with 11 wins at those three tracks.
Weaknesses: Despite all the wins, Hamlin hasn’t been as consistent week in and week out as Harvick with eight finishes outside the top 15. His playoff point total will afford him one mulligan in the early rounds but not in the Round of 8. He has had some races where the team has just missed the mark in a big way – Martinsville in June stands out – and that is a misfire the team can’t afford to repeat in November.
Strengths: Hamlin has been a strong foil to Harvick in 2020 and the cream of the crop at Joe Gibbs Racing. You cannot understate the impact crew chief Chris Gabehart has had on Hamlin and the No. 11 team in just two seasons, with strategy helping Hamlin to wins at Darlington and Kansas in 2020. The opening Round of 16 (eight wins at those tracks) stands as a real opportunity for Hamlin to pad his playoff point tally before a tricky Round of 12. The Round of 8 is a strength as well with 11 wins at those three tracks.
Weaknesses: Despite all the wins, Hamlin hasn’t been as consistent week in and week out as Harvick with eight finishes outside the top 15. His playoff point total will afford him one mulligan in the early rounds but not in the Round of 8. He has had some races where the team has just missed the mark in a big way – Martinsville in June stands out – and that is a misfire the team can’t afford to repeat in November.
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3. Brad Keselowski : 2,029 points, 3 wins
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Elimination history: Reached Championship 4 in 2017; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2014, 2015; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016, 2018, 2019.
Favorable track: Martinsville with two wins and an average finish of 10.5 in 21 starts.
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Brad Keselowski, continued
Strengths: Keselowski has been extremely consistent at non-superspeedways all year with one finish worse than 13th. He is a perfect 8-for-8 in top 10s on 1.5-mile tracks, and there are three of those in the playoffs with two in the Round of 8. His knack for pouncing on opportunities has been on full display in his victories at Charlotte and Bristol. It’s hard to imagine a more consistent season flying this quietly under the radar.
Weaknesses: Surprisingly, half of the playoff tracks fall in the bottom half of his tracks by average finish – Bristol, Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, Talladega, Texas and Phoenix. The 2012 champ is also just seventh in stage points due to some races where the team has missed the mark in the opening stages. The Round of 12 has been Keselowski’s trip-up point the last two years.
Strengths: Keselowski has been extremely consistent at non-superspeedways all year with one finish worse than 13th. He is a perfect 8-for-8 in top 10s on 1.5-mile tracks, and there are three of those in the playoffs with two in the Round of 8. His knack for pouncing on opportunities has been on full display in his victories at Charlotte and Bristol. It’s hard to imagine a more consistent season flying this quietly under the radar.
Weaknesses: Surprisingly, half of the playoff tracks fall in the bottom half of his tracks by average finish – Bristol, Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, Talladega, Texas and Phoenix. The 2012 champ is also just seventh in stage points due to some races where the team has missed the mark in the opening stages. The Round of 12 has been Keselowski’s trip-up point the last two years.
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4. Joey Logano: 2,022 points, 2 wins
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Elimination history: Won championship in 2018; Reached Championship 4 in 2014, 2016; Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2015, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2017.
Favorable track: Las Vegas with two wins and an average finish of 8.0 in 14 starts.
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Joey Logano
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Strengths: Logano has been strong with the short-track rules package in 2020, including a win at Phoenix – this rules package will be in place for two of the three races in the Round of 16. He has primarily performed well on 1.5-mile tracks this season with the seventh-most points scored. The 2018 champ has been able to score stage points in bunches with the second-most in the series.
Weaknesses: Logano has had a few too many clunkers he can’t afford to have in the elimination-style postseason. One of those came at Kansas – the race that is set to open the Round of 8, and is also his worst track by average finish. Pit road has been a bugaboo as well at times with valuable track position being lost due to penalties and mishaps.
Strengths: Logano has been strong with the short-track rules package in 2020, including a win at Phoenix – this rules package will be in place for two of the three races in the Round of 16. He has primarily performed well on 1.5-mile tracks this season with the seventh-most points scored. The 2018 champ has been able to score stage points in bunches with the second-most in the series.
Weaknesses: Logano has had a few too many clunkers he can’t afford to have in the elimination-style postseason. One of those came at Kansas – the race that is set to open the Round of 8, and is also his worst track by average finish. Pit road has been a bugaboo as well at times with valuable track position being lost due to penalties and mishaps.
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5. Chase Elliott : 2,020 points, 2 wins
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2017, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016.
Favorable track: Charlotte Roval with one win and an average finish of 3.5 in two starts.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Chase Elliott
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Strengths: Elliott’s short-track stats in 2020 have been strong, and he has been in contention to win at races held in the spring at three playoff tracks – Phoenix, Bristol and Martinsville – and he won the All-Star Race at Bristol. Elliott’s pit crew has been one of the best on four-tire stops all season. Elliott’s road course success -- with three straight wins at that track type -- gives him a leg up in the Round of 12 where the Charlotte Roval looms as a cutoff race.
Weaknesses: A summer swoon hit Elliott at some of the circuit’s bigger tracks with a stretch when he had just one top 10 in seven races. His 1.5-mile stats overall look good with the fourth-most points at that track type, but they trailed off significantly in the summer. That coincides with Hendrick’s speed as a company tailing off as well. The Round of 16 should be an opportunity based on Elliott’s 2020 short-track stats, but Darlington – the opening race – is his third-worst track by average finish.
Strengths: Elliott’s short-track stats in 2020 have been strong, and he has been in contention to win at races held in the spring at three playoff tracks – Phoenix, Bristol and Martinsville – and he won the All-Star Race at Bristol. Elliott’s pit crew has been one of the best on four-tire stops all season. Elliott’s road course success -- with three straight wins at that track type -- gives him a leg up in the Round of 12 where the Charlotte Roval looms as a cutoff race.
Weaknesses: A summer swoon hit Elliott at some of the circuit’s bigger tracks with a stretch when he had just one top 10 in seven races. His 1.5-mile stats overall look good with the fourth-most points at that track type, but they trailed off significantly in the summer. That coincides with Hendrick’s speed as a company tailing off as well. The Round of 16 should be an opportunity based on Elliott’s 2020 short-track stats, but Darlington – the opening race – is his third-worst track by average finish.
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6. Martin Truex Jr.: 2,014 points, 1 win
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Elimination history: Won championship in 2017; Reached Championship 4 in 2015, 2018, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016; Did not make playoffs in 2014.
Favorable track: Martinsville where he prevailed in the last two races and has five top-five finishes in his last six starts.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Martin Truex Jr.
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Strengths: Truex was the third-best driver by points on 1.5-mile race tracks in the regular season, which bodes well for the Round of 8 if he reaches it. Truex has been on a roll lately with eight top fours in as many races. He has also been rolling at short tracks less than 1 mile as he has won the last two races at Martinsville and the last race held at Richmond. Truex has risen to the occasion in the playoffs in recent years – tallying nine wins in the last four postseasons.
Weaknesses: It’s the little things that count, and this team still seems to find unforced ways to trip itself up, be it on pit road or running dry on fuel at the end of stages at Texas. Those mistakes simply cannot happen in the playoffs. The 2017 champion has two tracks in the playoffs that have been struggle city for him throughout his career: Bristol and Talladega. He has a combined four top fives and 11 top 10s in 60 starts.
Strengths: Truex was the third-best driver by points on 1.5-mile race tracks in the regular season, which bodes well for the Round of 8 if he reaches it. Truex has been on a roll lately with eight top fours in as many races. He has also been rolling at short tracks less than 1 mile as he has won the last two races at Martinsville and the last race held at Richmond. Truex has risen to the occasion in the playoffs in recent years – tallying nine wins in the last four postseasons.
Weaknesses: It’s the little things that count, and this team still seems to find unforced ways to trip itself up, be it on pit road or running dry on fuel at the end of stages at Texas. Those mistakes simply cannot happen in the playoffs. The 2017 champion has two tracks in the playoffs that have been struggle city for him throughout his career: Bristol and Talladega. He has a combined four top fives and 11 top 10s in 60 starts.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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7. Ryan Blaney: 2,013 points, 1 win
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2017, 2019; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2018; Did not make playoffs in 2016.
Favorable track: Charlotte Roval with one win and an average finish of 4.5 in two starts.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Ryan Blaney, continued
Strengths: New crew chief Todd Gordon and Blaney have mastered the art of long-run speed in 2020, with Blaney’s car running fast especially late in runs at intermediates. On the 1.5-mile tracks, Blaney has the most points earned this season by a significant margin over Harvick. Blaney has also earned the most stage points this season. The Round of 12 shapes up real well for Blaney as the Charlotte Roval and Las Vegas are two of his top-three tracks on average finish, and he has won the last two races at Talladega.
Weaknesses: The Round of 16 looms large for Blaney with Darlington, Richmond and Bristol among his six worst tracks by average finish. Darlington and Richmond open the round, and Blaney has yet to record a top 10 there in 15 starts – he has no top 15s at Richmond. He has had speed at Bristol but seems to find bad luck while running up front there in recent years. The stats say this is the driver to watch … if he can get out of the first round.
Strengths: New crew chief Todd Gordon and Blaney have mastered the art of long-run speed in 2020, with Blaney’s car running fast especially late in runs at intermediates. On the 1.5-mile tracks, Blaney has the most points earned this season by a significant margin over Harvick. Blaney has also earned the most stage points this season. The Round of 12 shapes up real well for Blaney as the Charlotte Roval and Las Vegas are two of his top-three tracks on average finish, and he has won the last two races at Talladega.
Weaknesses: The Round of 16 looms large for Blaney with Darlington, Richmond and Bristol among his six worst tracks by average finish. Darlington and Richmond open the round, and Blaney has yet to record a top 10 there in 15 starts – he has no top 15s at Richmond. He has had speed at Bristol but seems to find bad luck while running up front there in recent years. The stats say this is the driver to watch … if he can get out of the first round.
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8. Alex Bowman: 2,009 points, 1 win
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2018, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2015.
Favorable track: Charlotte Roval with two top fives and an average finish of 3.0 in two starts.
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Alex Bowman, continued
Strengths: For the whole of 2020, Bowman has been a solid performer in the stages as he ranks eighth in stage points and four stage wins. The Charlotte Roval and Kansas represent big opportunities for Bowman if he is still in the playoffs in the Round of 12 and Round of 8, respectively. Those two tracks are his best in the playoffs since joining Hendrick full time.
Weaknesses: The team’s drop in performance from the early post-return races has been extremely noticeable – Bowman has fallen from fifth to 12th in points in three months. The team had speed on intermediates in the early going but has just one top 10 on that track type since the first race back. He has three top 10s in his last 11 races and that won’t allow him to advance in the playoffs if that trend continues.
Strengths: For the whole of 2020, Bowman has been a solid performer in the stages as he ranks eighth in stage points and four stage wins. The Charlotte Roval and Kansas represent big opportunities for Bowman if he is still in the playoffs in the Round of 12 and Round of 8, respectively. Those two tracks are his best in the playoffs since joining Hendrick full time.
Weaknesses: The team’s drop in performance from the early post-return races has been extremely noticeable – Bowman has fallen from fifth to 12th in points in three months. The team had speed on intermediates in the early going but has just one top 10 on that track type since the first race back. He has three top 10s in his last 11 races and that won’t allow him to advance in the playoffs if that trend continues.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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9. William Byron: 2,007 points, 1 win
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2018.
Favorable track: Kansas with two straight top 10s and an average finish of 7.5 in his last two starts.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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William Byron, continued
Strengths: Byron has fared well with the 2020 short-track package – totaling the eighth-most points and an average finish of 11.5. That sets him up well for success in the Round of 16 where Richmond and Bristol will use that package. The young Hendrick driver has fared better in the stage point game than his standings position would indicate. For the bulk of the summer, he has been a more consistent finisher than teammates Alex Bowman and Jimmie Johnson as both have had a wider variance in finishes. He enters the playoffs with back-to-back top fives (and a win at Daytona)
Weaknesses: You can’t advance through the playoffs without top-five finishes and Byron's first of the season came in Race No. 25. Byron’s 1.5-mile track stats are a bit underwhelming with just the 15th-most points and an average finish of 19.2 that ranks 20th. Entering this playoff run, the third-year driver has yet to notch three top 10s in a row and has just two sets of back-to-back top fives.
Strengths: Byron has fared well with the 2020 short-track package – totaling the eighth-most points and an average finish of 11.5. That sets him up well for success in the Round of 16 where Richmond and Bristol will use that package. The young Hendrick driver has fared better in the stage point game than his standings position would indicate. For the bulk of the summer, he has been a more consistent finisher than teammates Alex Bowman and Jimmie Johnson as both have had a wider variance in finishes. He enters the playoffs with back-to-back top fives (and a win at Daytona)
Weaknesses: You can’t advance through the playoffs without top-five finishes and Byron's first of the season came in Race No. 25. Byron’s 1.5-mile track stats are a bit underwhelming with just the 15th-most points and an average finish of 19.2 that ranks 20th. Entering this playoff run, the third-year driver has yet to notch three top 10s in a row and has just two sets of back-to-back top fives.
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10. Austin Dillon: 2,005 points, 1 win
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2016; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2017, 2018; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2015, 2019.
Favorable track: Darlington with an average finish of 13.2 in eight starts.
Cooper Neill | Getty Images
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Austin Dillon, continued
Strengths: Dillon has been an underrated driver on the 1.5-mile tracks this year with the 10th-most points at that track type with Texas (win) and Las Vegas (fourth) standing out from strong runs earlier in the season. Darlington – Dillon’s best track in the playoffs – offers him a strong opportunity to get off on the right foot. Strategy has been in crew chief Justin Alexander’s wheelhouse – as evidenced by the Texas win.
Weaknesses: In 25 starts at Richmond and Bristol, Dillon has five top 10s and just one top five. Richmond, in particular, could be a real problem as he has eight finishes of 20th or worse in 12 starts there. A poor finish there combined with a lack of playoff points could doom Dillon in the Round of 16. In the Round of 12, the Charlotte Roval stands as Dillon's worst track on the circuit with an average finish of 31.0. He has no top 10s in 14 road course starts at the Cup level.
Strengths: Dillon has been an underrated driver on the 1.5-mile tracks this year with the 10th-most points at that track type with Texas (win) and Las Vegas (fourth) standing out from strong runs earlier in the season. Darlington – Dillon’s best track in the playoffs – offers him a strong opportunity to get off on the right foot. Strategy has been in crew chief Justin Alexander’s wheelhouse – as evidenced by the Texas win.
Weaknesses: In 25 starts at Richmond and Bristol, Dillon has five top 10s and just one top five. Richmond, in particular, could be a real problem as he has eight finishes of 20th or worse in 12 starts there. A poor finish there combined with a lack of playoff points could doom Dillon in the Round of 16. In the Round of 12, the Charlotte Roval stands as Dillon's worst track on the circuit with an average finish of 31.0. He has no top 10s in 14 road course starts at the Cup level.
Rob Carr | Getty Images
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11. Cole Custer: 2,005 points, 1 win
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Elimination history: Rookie season, so no previous Cup playoff experience.
Favorable track: Kansas with an average finish of 7.0 in his lone start.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Cole Custer, continued
Strengths: The rookie has gotten better as the season has gone on – peaking with his Kentucky win as part of a run of four top-eight finishes in five races from Indianapolis to New Hampshire. With all four SHR teams in the postseason, Custer can lean a bit on the veteran savvy and know-how of drivers who have been through the grind of the elimination-format at the Cup level.
Weaknesses: Custer may have experienced this postseason format in Xfinity, but it is a different beast at the top level. With two short tracks in the first three races, his results with that package have been up and down (three top 10s, two finishes outside the top 25). A rash of finishes outside the top 20 -- 12 in 26 starts -- makes advancing out of any round difficult.
Strengths: The rookie has gotten better as the season has gone on – peaking with his Kentucky win as part of a run of four top-eight finishes in five races from Indianapolis to New Hampshire. With all four SHR teams in the postseason, Custer can lean a bit on the veteran savvy and know-how of drivers who have been through the grind of the elimination-format at the Cup level.
Weaknesses: Custer may have experienced this postseason format in Xfinity, but it is a different beast at the top level. With two short tracks in the first three races, his results with that package have been up and down (three top 10s, two finishes outside the top 25). A rash of finishes outside the top 20 -- 12 in 26 starts -- makes advancing out of any round difficult.
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12. Aric Almirola : 2,005 points
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2014, 2019; Did not make playoffs in 2015, 2016, 2017.
Favorable track: Talladega with one win and an average finish of 4.8 in five starts with SHR there. His nine career top 10s there are the most he has at any track.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Aric Almirola
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Strengths: Almirola’s pairing with crew chief Mike Bugarewicz really hit its stride around the midway point of the regular season when the driver rolled off nine straight top-10 finishes. His numbers through the regular season have him on pace for his best full season to date as he has already established a career high in top fives. The Round of 16 (Darlington and Richmond) and Round of 12 (Las Vegas and Talladega) each have two good tracks for him -- Vegas and 'Dega have been especially solid in his SHR tenure. He has also been sneaky good at Phoenix with SHR – an average finish of 9.0 in five starts.
Weaknesses: Almirola’s stats at elimination-race tracks are a big concern. He has not fared well at Bristol, the Charlotte Roval or Martinsville at SHR and over his entire career. Bristol is, in fact, his worst track on the circuit with an average finish of 25.0 and just three top 10s in 22 starts. He has had five finishes of 29th or worse there in his last six starts. Since he doesn’t have a treasure trove of playoff points, avoiding disaster there is a must.
Strengths: Almirola’s pairing with crew chief Mike Bugarewicz really hit its stride around the midway point of the regular season when the driver rolled off nine straight top-10 finishes. His numbers through the regular season have him on pace for his best full season to date as he has already established a career high in top fives. The Round of 16 (Darlington and Richmond) and Round of 12 (Las Vegas and Talladega) each have two good tracks for him -- Vegas and 'Dega have been especially solid in his SHR tenure. He has also been sneaky good at Phoenix with SHR – an average finish of 9.0 in five starts.
Weaknesses: Almirola’s stats at elimination-race tracks are a big concern. He has not fared well at Bristol, the Charlotte Roval or Martinsville at SHR and over his entire career. Bristol is, in fact, his worst track on the circuit with an average finish of 25.0 and just three top 10s in 22 starts. He has had five finishes of 29th or worse there in his last six starts. Since he doesn’t have a treasure trove of playoff points, avoiding disaster there is a must.
Christian Petersen | Getty Images
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13. Clint Bowyer : 2,004 points
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2018; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2019; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2015; Did not make playoffs in 2014, 2016, 2017.
Favorable track: Charlotte Roval with two top-five finishes and an average finish of 3.5 in two starts.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Clint Bowyer
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Strengths: Bowyer is one of the best on short tracks, and that bodes well for the Round of 16. He has the seventh-most points with the 2020 short-track package and two top fives. Richmond (two wins, 16 top 10s in 28 starts) and Bristol (16 top 10s in 29 starts and a runner-up finish in the spring) are two of his three best playoff tracks. He has been one of the best drivers at the Charlotte Roval and owns two career wins at Talladega, which makes him a Round of 12 sleeper pick for those two races.
Weaknesses: As good as Bowyer is on short tracks, Darlington could make or break his Round of 16. He has just two top 10s there in 16 starts, and it’s his worst track on average finish at 21.3. His 1.5-mile track stats in 2020 are a bit of alarming as well with an average finish of 17.1 and the 16th-most points at that track type. The biggest flag on the resume of Bowyer is a lack of strong finishes – his seven top 10s are tied for the fewest among the playoff field that made it in on points.
Strengths: Bowyer is one of the best on short tracks, and that bodes well for the Round of 16. He has the seventh-most points with the 2020 short-track package and two top fives. Richmond (two wins, 16 top 10s in 28 starts) and Bristol (16 top 10s in 29 starts and a runner-up finish in the spring) are two of his three best playoff tracks. He has been one of the best drivers at the Charlotte Roval and owns two career wins at Talladega, which makes him a Round of 12 sleeper pick for those two races.
Weaknesses: As good as Bowyer is on short tracks, Darlington could make or break his Round of 16. He has just two top 10s there in 16 starts, and it’s his worst track on average finish at 21.3. His 1.5-mile track stats in 2020 are a bit of alarming as well with an average finish of 17.1 and the 16th-most points at that track type. The biggest flag on the resume of Bowyer is a lack of strong finishes – his seven top 10s are tied for the fewest among the playoff field that made it in on points.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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14. Kyle Busch: 2,003 points
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Elimination history: Won championships in 2015 and 2019; Reached Championship 4 in 2016, 2017, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 12 in 2014.
Favorable track: Richmond with six wins and an average finish of 6.8 in 29 starts.
Jamie Squire | Getty Images
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Kyle Busch
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Strengths: For all the talk about the lack of wins, Busch is tied for third in the series – behind Hamlin and Harvick – for the most top-five finishes with 11. Based on his track history, the Round of 16 shapes up very well for him with 15 wins combined at Darlington, Richmond and Bristol. The closing stretch of the playoffs – Kansas (based on recent history and a solid summer showing), Texas, Martinsville and Phoenix – sets up well for Busch if he can stave off elimination to that point. He’s KFB and the defending champion, so count him out at your own risk.
Weaknesses: The lack of playoff points to his name puts him in a dicey spot with one bad finish – in past years, he has had a bunch of playoff points that have helped him overcome a bad race in a round. That won’t be the case this time around – he has had eight finishes outside the top 25 already in 2020. There’s also the simple fact he has led his fewest amount of laps ever in a full-time season, hasn’t won since the Miami finale last year and has just one win in his last 48 Cup starts. The Round of 12 looks especially problematic for the reigning champion with Talladega and the Charlotte Roval ranking as his two worst tracks on average finish.
Strengths: For all the talk about the lack of wins, Busch is tied for third in the series – behind Hamlin and Harvick – for the most top-five finishes with 11. Based on his track history, the Round of 16 shapes up very well for him with 15 wins combined at Darlington, Richmond and Bristol. The closing stretch of the playoffs – Kansas (based on recent history and a solid summer showing), Texas, Martinsville and Phoenix – sets up well for Busch if he can stave off elimination to that point. He’s KFB and the defending champion, so count him out at your own risk.
Weaknesses: The lack of playoff points to his name puts him in a dicey spot with one bad finish – in past years, he has had a bunch of playoff points that have helped him overcome a bad race in a round. That won’t be the case this time around – he has had eight finishes outside the top 25 already in 2020. There’s also the simple fact he has led his fewest amount of laps ever in a full-time season, hasn’t won since the Miami finale last year and has just one win in his last 48 Cup starts. The Round of 12 looks especially problematic for the reigning champion with Talladega and the Charlotte Roval ranking as his two worst tracks on average finish.
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15. Kurt Busch: 2,001 points
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Elimination history: Eliminated in Round of 8 in 2015, 2016, 2018; Eliminated in Round of 16 in 2014, 2017, 2019.
Favorable track: Bristol with six wins and an average finish of 14.0 in 39 starts; an average of 4.8 in his last four.
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Kurt Busch
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Strengths: Busch has the fourth-best average finish on 1.5-mile tracks entering the playoffs – which bodes well with three of those tracks in the final seven. The veteran also had the sixth-best average finish in this spring's two races at Darlington. Over a quarter of Busch’s wins have come at tracks in the Round of 16 – eight of 31.
Weaknesses: Las Vegas and Martinsville loom large for Busch. His home track in Nevada is his worst in the series on average finish at 22.5 – with just two top fives and five top 20s in 21 starts. While he has two wins at Martinsville, he has just eight top 10s in 40 starts there. The 2004 champion ranks 15th in stage points on the season entering the playoffs and is sliding into the postseason with no finish better than 10th in his last seven races.
Strengths: Busch has the fourth-best average finish on 1.5-mile tracks entering the playoffs – which bodes well with three of those tracks in the final seven. The veteran also had the sixth-best average finish in this spring's two races at Darlington. Over a quarter of Busch’s wins have come at tracks in the Round of 16 – eight of 31.
Weaknesses: Las Vegas and Martinsville loom large for Busch. His home track in Nevada is his worst in the series on average finish at 22.5 – with just two top fives and five top 20s in 21 starts. While he has two wins at Martinsville, he has just eight top 10s in 40 starts there. The 2004 champion ranks 15th in stage points on the season entering the playoffs and is sliding into the postseason with no finish better than 10th in his last seven races.
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16. Matt DiBenedetto: 2,000 points
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Elimination history: Did not make playoffs in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019.
Favorable track: Darlington with two top 10s and an average finish of 10.3 in his last three starts – all with Leavine Family Racing and Wood Brothers Racing.
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Matt DiBenedetto
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Strengths: The Round of 16 sets up nicely for DiBenedetto as Darlington has been one of his best tracks over the past two seasons. He was also the runner-up in the Bristol Night Race in 2019. His No. 21 team has found a bit more speed as the season has gone on, which is only natural in its first season together. His recent strong runs on road courses and a 11th-place finish last year lend some thought to the Charlotte Roval being a solid place for him.
Weaknesses: Race-to-race consistency has been a trouble spot for DiBenedetto. In his career, he has never notched three straight top 10s – something he will need to do if he is to move deeper into the playoffs. Both of his top fives on 1.5-mile tracks have come this season, but his next-best finish on that track type is 14th. No playoff points puts him squarely in a spot where he can’t afford a bad finish or early exit in any race.
Strengths: The Round of 16 sets up nicely for DiBenedetto as Darlington has been one of his best tracks over the past two seasons. He was also the runner-up in the Bristol Night Race in 2019. His No. 21 team has found a bit more speed as the season has gone on, which is only natural in its first season together. His recent strong runs on road courses and a 11th-place finish last year lend some thought to the Charlotte Roval being a solid place for him.
Weaknesses: Race-to-race consistency has been a trouble spot for DiBenedetto. In his career, he has never notched three straight top 10s – something he will need to do if he is to move deeper into the playoffs. Both of his top fives on 1.5-mile tracks have come this season, but his next-best finish on that track type is 14th. No playoff points puts him squarely in a spot where he can’t afford a bad finish or early exit in any race.
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