Bubble Watch: Will another Las Vegas gamble lead to Championship 4 berth?

Familiar faces return in the Round of 8 of the Cup Series Playoffs, as Chase Briscoe is the only driver who didn't make it this far a season ago. Opportunities await and risks will be taken Sunday afternoon at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (5:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) as the winner can get the two-week jumpstart to prepare for Phoenix. 

Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward a solid race at Las Vegas, with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Ranking the Round of 8

Denny Hamlin

Points above cutline: 8

Chances of advancing to next round: 62.7%

Trending: Hit or Miss

Las Vegas outlook -- Hit or Miss: For three straight weeks, Hamlin has been at the forefront of the biggest on-track storyline. Most recently, Ross Chastain's last-lap desperation attempt to make the Round of 8 that spun both Hamlin and the No. 1 Trackhouse Chevrolet. With just a small cushion to start the Round of 8, Hamlin needs a quiet, steady weekend out west, but the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Driver has just one top five at the 1.5-mile oval in Gen 7 car. 

Ryan Blaney

Points above cutline: 6

Chances of advancing to next round: 60.6%

Trending: Cooling Off

Las Vegas outlook -- Cold: Blaney took the rest of the Round of 12 off after his Loudon win to open the second round. Over the years, he's had some pre-race woes at Vegas with practice crashes and the results haven't gotten much better as he's finished 32nd or worse in three of the seven Las Vegas races in the Gen 7 car. 

Kyle Larson

Points above cutline: 4

Chances of advancing to next round: 73.2%

Trending: Hot

Las Vegas outlook -- Hot: After a runner-up finish and heated tilt with SVG for the win at the Roval, it seems like Larson is on the cusp of getting back to Victory Lane amid one of his longest droughts at Hendrick. Larson has been dominant at Vegas since 2022, with either wins or runner-ups in four of the last seven races, and 466 laps led. 

William Byron

Points above cutline: 4

Chances of advancing to next round: 59.6%

Trending: Warm

Las Vegas outlook -- Hot: With only two wins this season, Byron enters the semifinal round with a chip on his shoulder to build that championship resume. While struggles with pace at Kansas could trigger red flags for the No. 24 team heading into the weekend, Byron has been great at Las Vegas with just one finish outside the top 10 in seven Gen 7 races. 

Christopher Bell

Points below cutline: 4

Chances of advancing to next round: 52.8%

Trending: Hot

Las Vegas outlook -- Hot: Third time has to be the charm right? Bell's been heartbroken in back-to-back Vegas playoff races with runner-ups in both. Larson outdueled him in 2023 before Joey Logano and No. 22 crew chief Paul Wolfe put on a fuel-saving masterclass to make it back to the line before the No. 20 could catch them. Bell also hasn't finished worse than seventh in the last five races and appears to be making a beeline for the Championship 4.  

Chase Elliott 

Points below cutline: 14

Chances of advancing to next round: 41.9%

Trending: Hot

Las Vegas outlook -- Cold: So far, Vegas has stifled the No. 9 team with only two top 10s in six Gen 7 starts for Elliott. But Elliott has three consecutive top 10s, which is his best stretch of races since snagging three top fives in a row between Mexico and Atlanta, the latter of which is won. 

Chase Briscoe

Points below cutline: 14

Chances of advancing to next round: 29.2%

Trending: Warm

Las Vegas outlook -- Ice Cold: It should come as no surprise Briscoe made it to second Round of 8 in his Cup career. He's finished no worse than 14th in the playoffs and finished fourth in both Kansas races to build confidence for a big performance this Sunday, despite finishing 17th or worse in six of seven Vegas Gen 7 starts. 

Joey Logano

Points below cutline: 24

Chances of advancing to next round: 20%

Trending: Going Cold

Las Vegas outlook -- Hot: Once again, dramatics elevated Logano into the Round of 8 and until proven otherwise, the three-time champ should be the title favorite again. It's not raw speed that carries Logano to victory, but a perfect mix of strategy and management from Logano and crew chief Paul Wolfe that should have the rest of the playoff drivers shaking in their racing boots this weekend.