Fantasy Fastlane: Bank on Kyle Busch and RFK at Bristol

The pressure will be immense throughout this weekend's opening round elimination race at Bristol Motor Speedway. One of the favorites for the championship, regular-season champion Martin Truex Jr., finds himself in real danger of missing the cut for the Round of 12. There are also a couple of drivers below the elimination line -- and even some who missed the postseason entirely -- that perform particularly well at the "World's Fastest Half-Mile." 

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MUST START:

Kyle Larson | View stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-2

Larson's record at Bristol is nothing short of phenomenal. In 14 starts, he has nine top-10 finishes, though just one victory, coming in this race two years ago. Seven of those top 10s have come in his last eight starts, dating back to 2017. Four times, he's led 90-plus laps. I used Larson in each of the first two races of the playoffs, so I can't afford to use another start on him this weekend. Because I've used him twice, he will probably dominate the weekend, having already scored top fives in both playoff races.

MUST START:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 17-2

For the first time since becoming a driver-owner, Keselowski has three straight top-10 finishes entering Bristol. This is also a track he's won at three times, and had he not blown a tire last year, he would have been in contention to add to that total after leading 109 laps. The No. 6 team is heating up at the right time, and he should have another solid performance on Saturday evening.

MUST START:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-1

In case you've forgotten, here's a reminder: Busch is among the all-time greats at Bristol. His eight victories (24.2% winning percentage at Bristol) trail just Darrell Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt, Cale Yarborough and Rusty Wallace on the all-time win’s list here. One cause for concern is RCR's short-track program hasn't been up to par in 2023, though Busch did finish third at Richmond in July. Bristol is its own beast, so unless Busch is off the pace in practice and qualifying, he's a must for your lineup. 

MUST START:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 12-1

Buescher surprised almost everyone last September when he won the Bristol Night Race in commanding fashion. He led a career-high 169 laps in that race and edged out Chase Elliott by a half-second for the win. A deeper dive on Buescher’s record at Bristol shows he’s pretty good at the venue, though the stats will show just three top 10s in 13 starts. Aside from blowing a right-rear tire at Kansas last weekend, the No. 17 team is hitting on all cylinders. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Chevrolet

Odds: 60-1

Since late June, Jones and the No. 43 team have put in many valiant performances, including a season-best third-place finish at Kansas last weekend. In the last 12 races, he's tallied five top 10s. That is like his Bristol record, with five top 10s in 10 races. As a rookie in 2017, he led 260 laps from the pole and finished second. He has one top 10 in two starts while driving the famed No. 43 entry, placing eighth in 2021.

SLEEPER PICK:

Aric Almirola | View stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 90-1

After Almirola finished third in the regular-season finale at Daytona and failed to qualify for the playoffs, he noted Bristol as one of the tracks he was looking forward to over the final 10 races. He won the pole in surprising fashion last year and led 36 laps before experiencing a steering issue. Since joining SHR in 2018, he's earned two finishes of sixth or better while also having four finishes of 28th or worse. He won’t be in my lineup, but if you're looking for a driver who could stun the field, it might be the No. 10 team.

SLEEPER PICK:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 100-1

Stenhouse sits 22 points below the elimination line entering Bristol and is in must-win mode this weekend. While he has yet to reach Victory Lane at the Last Great Colosseum, he's earned a pair of runner-up finishes in 18 starts. Just don't look at his last seven starts, as they've all been 20th or worse. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Martin Truex Jr. | View stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 14-1

Truex fans won't like reading this, but sometimes the truth hurts. Much in the world has changed since the last time Truex scored a top five at Bristol: The New York Giants just won its second Super Bowl over the New England Patriots in five years; We Are Young was No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100; Truex still had nearly two seasons remaining with Michael Waltrip Racing and personally, I was a junior in high school. That feels like a lifetime ago. Not saying Truex can’t point his way into the Round of 12, particularly if other playoff drivers miss the setup or experience issues, but four top 10s in 32 starts here isn't ideal. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 16-1 

It took until Richmond in July for Reddick to finally pace the field on a short track at the Cup Series level. The No. 45 team has qualified well at short tracks in 2023 (all three races have been inside the top five), but they haven’t executed a full race with a best finish of 16th in those events. Reddick does have a load of momentum from consecutive top-two finishes, including his Kansas win last weekend. Would save Reddick uses for later in the playoffs. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No 23 Toyota

Odds: 28-1

Wallace's shining moment at the Cup level at Bristol came in his rookie season when he drove up and passed Keselowski for the race lead while racing for Richard Petty Motorsports. Since then, he's been mediocre with a best finish of 10th in eight starts. Wallace tends to perform well when the pressure is on, however, and he enters the elimination race 19 points below the bubble. It might seem like an uphill battle to advance in the postseason, but crazier things have happened. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Martin Truex Jr. vs. Kevin Harvick

The playoff bubble area is filled with former Cup champions, with three sitting from 11th to 13th in the standings. Two of the three have scored multiple wins at Bristol, while Truex has just two top fives. I'm all in on Harvick outrunning Truex this weekend, though it’s logical to think Toyota is going to put most of its eggs into Truex's basket. All he needs to do is gain seven points and then he reracks as one of the favorites to get to Phoenix. He could do that, but it's hard to think he will outpoint Harvick. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Bubba Wallace vs. Joey Logano

The last of those three aforementioned Cup champions is here with Logano. He loves racing at Bristol, though his last five finishes have all been outside the top 10. Wallace will get a lot of support from Toyota as well this weekend, but there’s no way the defending champion will get knocked out in the first round, is there? 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chris Buescher vs. Christopher Bell

Here is a prime example of the stat sheet not telling the full story. I would consider both drivers to be stellar at Bristol, yet Bell has just four starts and two of those cracked the top 10. Buescher pulled off one of the biggest upset wins of 2022 in this race. Both drivers aren’t comfortable from a points position either, entering the race tied for ninth on the playoff grid. My gut tells me to choose Buescher, who has been riding a hot streak while the No. 20 team continues to have trouble putting full races together. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Kyle Busch

Busch is among the Bristol masters, but Blaney isn't a layover this weekend. The No. 12 team tends to run better than it finishes in Thunder Valley, twice leading more than 100 laps. But Busch is the guy at Bristol, so you can bet I'm rolling with the No. 8 team this weekend.  

MY LINEUP: Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Chris Buscher, Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott

GARAGE: Christopher Bell