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Fantasy Fastlane: Who to roll the dice on in Sin City
By Dustin Albino | Published: March 3, 2023 16
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Las Vegas marks the third race of the 2023 Cup Series season and the second of the three-week stretch out west on Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Fantasy players will earn 10 Fan Rewards points each time they set their lineup in NASCAR Fantasy Live. Fan Rewards is a way for registered users on NASCAR.com to earn points toward things like NASCAR tickets, NASCAR merchandise and more.
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MUST START:
Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
With an early electrical issue in the race at Auto Club Speedway last weekend, Larson never got a real chance to show how fast the No. 5 car was, being multiple laps down. Should all the gremlins be out, Larson is going to be a factor at Las Vegas. He was intentionally wrecked by Bubba Wallace while running in the top 10 the last time the series visited Sin City, so he'll be looking to capitalize on a track he's been successful at.
Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 7-1
With an early electrical issue in the race at Auto Club Speedway last weekend, Larson never got a real chance to show how fast the No. 5 car was, being multiple laps down. Should all the gremlins be out, Larson is going to be a factor at Las Vegas. He was intentionally wrecked by Bubba Wallace while running in the top 10 the last time the series visited Sin City, so he'll be looking to capitalize on a track he's been successful at.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
MUST START:
Ross Chastain
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
This race last year was Chastain’s arrival. He led 83 laps and won a stage. This year, he’s already won three stages (halfway to his 2022 total) and leads the series with 97 laps led through two races. The No. 1 car had podium finishes in both Vegas races in 2022, and with the speed Chastain had at Fontana, it’s hard to believe he won’t be in contention for another strong performance.
Ross Chastain
Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 8-1
This race last year was Chastain’s arrival. He led 83 laps and won a stage. This year, he’s already won three stages (halfway to his 2022 total) and leads the series with 97 laps led through two races. The No. 1 car had podium finishes in both Vegas races in 2022, and with the speed Chastain had at Fontana, it’s hard to believe he won’t be in contention for another strong performance.
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Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images
MUST START:
Martin Truex Jr.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Twenty drivers have won a points-paying race in the Next Gen car, but Truex, somehow, is not one of them. He was, however, in a hard-fought battle with former teammate Kyle Busch late in the first Vegas race last season before a late caution flew and he fell to eighth. The No. 19 team was also one of four teams to score top 10s in each Vegas race last season.
Martin Truex Jr.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Twenty drivers have won a points-paying race in the Next Gen car, but Truex, somehow, is not one of them. He was, however, in a hard-fought battle with former teammate Kyle Busch late in the first Vegas race last season before a late caution flew and he fell to eighth. The No. 19 team was also one of four teams to score top 10s in each Vegas race last season.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
MUST START:
Kyle Busch
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-2
With just 10 usages of each driver, you’ve got to get creative in how you use them. But with how much speed Busch had at Fontana, it’s hard to believe he won’t duplicate that again at Las Vegas, a track he earned top 10s at in both races in 2022, despite it being a tumultuous season. Can we really be that surprised Busch is off to a scorching start with his new team?
Kyle Busch
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-2
With just 10 usages of each driver, you’ve got to get creative in how you use them. But with how much speed Busch had at Fontana, it’s hard to believe he won’t duplicate that again at Las Vegas, a track he earned top 10s at in both races in 2022, despite it being a tumultuous season. Can we really be that surprised Busch is off to a scorching start with his new team?
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Alex Bowman
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
It’s hard to consider the defending winner of the race a sleeper, but Bowman enjoys flying under the radar. The No. 48 team is coming off a top-10 run in Fontana and earned stage points in both stages. Bowman might not be flashy but is consistent at Vegas with two top-five finishes in his last four starts.
Alex Bowman
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
It’s hard to consider the defending winner of the race a sleeper, but Bowman enjoys flying under the radar. The No. 48 team is coming off a top-10 run in Fontana and earned stage points in both stages. Bowman might not be flashy but is consistent at Vegas with two top-five finishes in his last four starts.
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Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images
SLEEPER PICK:
Brad Keselowski
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 40-1
If it’s hard to consider Bowman an underdog, how can one think Keselowski, a three-time winner at Las Vegas, a sleeper? Well, in his first two starts at LVMS as a driver-owner, he has an average finish of 20.5. Looking back at Fontana, the 2012 champion was fast, rebounding from going a lap down after a spin to finish seventh. 2023 is already off to a better start than 2022 for the No. 6 group.
Brad Keselowski
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 40-1
If it’s hard to consider Bowman an underdog, how can one think Keselowski, a three-time winner at Las Vegas, a sleeper? Well, in his first two starts at LVMS as a driver-owner, he has an average finish of 20.5. Looking back at Fontana, the 2012 champion was fast, rebounding from going a lap down after a spin to finish seventh. 2023 is already off to a better start than 2022 for the No. 6 group.
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SLEEPER PICK:
Austin Dillon
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
While all eyes have been on Busch in his move to RCR, Dillon is off to a strong start to the season as well. He finished runner-up at the Busch Light Clash; was in the running to win the Daytona 500 and earned a top 10 in Fontana. He also has four consecutive top-15 finishes at Las Vegas (six in the last seven races there), highlighted with a 10th-place run last fall.
Austin Dillon
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
While all eyes have been on Busch in his move to RCR, Dillon is off to a strong start to the season as well. He finished runner-up at the Busch Light Clash; was in the running to win the Daytona 500 and earned a top 10 in Fontana. He also has four consecutive top-15 finishes at Las Vegas (six in the last seven races there), highlighted with a 10th-place run last fall.
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STAY AWAY FROM:
Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 11-1
Hamlin has been strong at Vegas in recent years and picked up his first win at the venue in 2021. Statistically, though, it’s not been among his best tracks with top 10s in just 50% of his starts (11 for 22). It’s been little things too, such as missing a shift in the spring race last spring. You’ll use Hamlin a lot during the regular season, so it’s better to save him.
Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 11-1
Hamlin has been strong at Vegas in recent years and picked up his first win at the venue in 2021. Statistically, though, it’s not been among his best tracks with top 10s in just 50% of his starts (11 for 22). It’s been little things too, such as missing a shift in the spring race last spring. You’ll use Hamlin a lot during the regular season, so it’s better to save him.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Editor's note: Chase Elliott will not compete in Sunday's race after suffering leg injury.
STAY AWAY FROM:
Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
The last time the Cup Series visited Sin City, Elliott spent more time outside of the top 20 than he did inside of it and finished 21st. The No. 9 team had an impressive showing in Fontana last weekend, finishing runner-up after a 33rd-place starting position. Like Hamlin, there will be better uses for the 2020 champion throughout the regular season.
STAY AWAY FROM:
Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
The last time the Cup Series visited Sin City, Elliott spent more time outside of the top 20 than he did inside of it and finished 21st. The No. 9 team had an impressive showing in Fontana last weekend, finishing runner-up after a 33rd-place starting position. Like Hamlin, there will be better uses for the 2020 champion throughout the regular season.
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Mike Mulholland | Getty Images
STAY AWAY FROM:
Chase Briscoe
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Aside from Kevin Harvick finishing inside the top five in Fontana, Stewart-Haas Racing is off to a sluggish start in 2023. Sure, Aric Almirola won one of the Bluegreen Vacations Duel races, and Ryan Preece was competitive in The Clash, but Briscoe has been a non-factor. For a good chunk of the early portion of Sunday’s race at Auto Club, he was among the final few cars in the running order. The No. 14 team went through a dry spell last year and turned up the wick at the right time in the postseason.
Chase Briscoe
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Aside from Kevin Harvick finishing inside the top five in Fontana, Stewart-Haas Racing is off to a sluggish start in 2023. Sure, Aric Almirola won one of the Bluegreen Vacations Duel races, and Ryan Preece was competitive in The Clash, but Briscoe has been a non-factor. For a good chunk of the early portion of Sunday’s race at Auto Club, he was among the final few cars in the running order. The No. 14 team went through a dry spell last year and turned up the wick at the right time in the postseason.
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FEATURED MATCHUP:
Kyle Busch vs. Joey Logano
This is about as even as it gets, with Logano being the most recent driver to visit Victory Lane in Las Vegas. On the flip side, Busch has a wave of momentum behind him, being the most recent winner in the 2023 season. You can’t go wrong with who you choose, but I’ll take Busch this weekend.
Kyle Busch vs. Joey Logano
This is about as even as it gets, with Logano being the most recent driver to visit Victory Lane in Las Vegas. On the flip side, Busch has a wave of momentum behind him, being the most recent winner in the 2023 season. You can’t go wrong with who you choose, but I’ll take Busch this weekend.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
FEATURED MATCHUP:
Chase Elliott vs. Martin Truex Jr.
As noted earlier, Truex was strong last season at Las Vegas and has a pair of wins at the track. He also has 10 top 10s in the last 11 races there, with six of those being top fives. Elliott hasn’t been as consistent at the track, with five top 10s in 12 starts. He has, however, led over 70 laps on two occasions. Still, Truex is the choice.
Chase Elliott vs. Martin Truex Jr.
As noted earlier, Truex was strong last season at Las Vegas and has a pair of wins at the track. He also has 10 top 10s in the last 11 races there, with six of those being top fives. Elliott hasn’t been as consistent at the track, with five top 10s in 12 starts. He has, however, led over 70 laps on two occasions. Still, Truex is the choice.
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FEATURED MATCHUP:
Ryan Blaney vs. Denny Hamlin
Eventually, Blaney will find a streak of good luck and have a clean race. It could very well be in Las Vegas. While his numbers don’t look good from a season ago – finishes of 28th and 36th, respectively – he was up front when it all went wrong late in the October race. I’m bearish on Hamlin this weekend, as Toyota was just average on speed in Fontana. Go with Blaney.
Ryan Blaney vs. Denny Hamlin
Eventually, Blaney will find a streak of good luck and have a clean race. It could very well be in Las Vegas. While his numbers don’t look good from a season ago – finishes of 28th and 36th, respectively – he was up front when it all went wrong late in the October race. I’m bearish on Hamlin this weekend, as Toyota was just average on speed in Fontana. Go with Blaney.
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FEATURED MATCHUP:
Ross Chastain vs. Kyle Larson
This one might be tougher than Busch vs. Logano. Both drivers have a good chance of being in contention for the win on Sunday, and the No. 5 team will be out to prove something. But Chastain has picked up three stage wins in 2023; the rest of the field has one. If the No. 1 car gets out front, he’s going to be hard to beat. That’s why I’m going with Chastain.
Ross Chastain vs. Kyle Larson
This one might be tougher than Busch vs. Logano. Both drivers have a good chance of being in contention for the win on Sunday, and the No. 5 team will be out to prove something. But Chastain has picked up three stage wins in 2023; the rest of the field has one. If the No. 1 car gets out front, he’s going to be hard to beat. That’s why I’m going with Chastain.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
MY LINEUP: Ross Chastain, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano
GARAGE: Ryan Blaney
GARAGE: Ryan Blaney