Fantasy Fastlane: Can Stewart-Haas get back on track in Phoenix?

Sunday's Cup Series race at Phoenix (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) is the last leg of the three-week West Coast swing and last year, Ford swept both races in the Arizona desert.

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MUST START:
Kevin Harvick
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 12-1
Darrell Waltrip dominated Bristol, Jimmie Johnson dominated Dover and Kevin Harvick is the master of Phoenix. Though he doesn’t have a win since the track was reconfigured in 2018 and he’s led just one lap in the past five Phoenix races, the future first-ballot Hall of Famer has 19 consecutive top-10 finishes at the track – the longest streak in series history at one particular track. 13 of those top 10s have been inside the top five.

MUST START:
Joey Logano
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Ford dominated the two Phoenix races in 2022, leading 558 of 624 laps at the one-mile track. In November, Logano was popping champagne, celebrating his second Cup championship. After earning one point in Las Vegas, the No. 22 team needs a bounce-back performance.

MUST START:
Ryan Blaney
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Blaney was the only driver to lead north of 100 laps in both Phoenix races last season. His 252 laps out front spanning those two races was 40.4% of all laps run at the track. In his last eight Phoenix starts, he has a handful of top-five efforts with a total of seven top 10s.

MUST START:
Chase Briscoe
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 20-1
Anyone should understand the trepidation of having the No. 14 car on your fantasy roster this weekend. After all, Briscoe has a pair of 20th-place finishes to kickstart the west coast swing. But this race last year served as his breakout performance, leading 101 laps en route to his first Cup victory.

SLEEPER PICK:
Alex Bowman
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 18-1
Bowman is one of two drivers (Daniel Suárez) to have top-10 finishes in each of the three Cup races this season. And while the Arizona native doesn’t have a top 10 at his home track since his standout performance while subbing for Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2016, two of his Hendrick teammates have won at the track in the last five races. There’s a good chance the No. 48 car is racing toward the front on Sunday.

SLEEPER PICK:
AJ Allmendinger
Kaulig Racing, No. 16 Chevrolet
Odds: 100-1
The finishes for Allmendinger in 2023 haven’t been a true indicator of where the team has been running. At Fontana, he finished last despite running in the middle of the pack. He was also involved in a last-lap wreck at Las Vegas, finishing 18th. In two Phoenix starts a year ago, he placed inside the top 20 both times. Using him in your lineup might be a stretch, but he often excels on road courses and short tracks.

SLEEPER PICK:
Ryan Preece
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 50-1
With the series running the new short track rules package this weekend for the first time, there are a lot of unknowns. But gauging off the lone short track that’s been run in 2023 – the Busch Light Clash – Preece could be a factor at Phoenix, particularly with how strong Stewart-Haas was at Phoenix last season. Preece is coming off his best result of the season at Vegas: 23rd.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Bubba Wallace
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 30-1
Wallace had a strong performance at Las Vegas, being the first non-Hendrick Motorsports driver in the final rundown. However, he doesn’t have the best track record at Phoenix, with just one top-10 finish in 10 starts. Last season, he finished 22nd in both races.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Brad Keselowski
RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 50-1
RFK Racing did improve its program significantly throughout the 2022 season on short tracks, highlighted by Chris Buescher’s win at Bristol. Phoenix, though, hasn’t always been kind to Keselowski, as he has top-10 finishes in less than half of his starts. Last year, he had an average finish of 29th between the two races.

STAY AWAY FROM:
Daniel Suárez
Trackhouse Racing, No. 99 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Trackhouse certainly had speed at Phoenix last year, with Ross Chastain earning podium finishes in both events. Suárez placed ninth in the spring race, which was his first top 10 at the track in four years. Last fall, he finished 24th. The bright side is that Suárez is off to the best start of his Cup career and has finished all three races strong, even if the No. 99 car looks mediocre early on.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Chase Briscoe vs. William Byron
All signs would point to Byron after the No. 24 team ended a 30-race winless streak last week in Sin City. Briscoe desperately needs a strong run as he sits 32nd in the championship standings and has a total of 28 points in three races. This could change later in the week, but with how the No. 14 performed last year at Phoenix, he’ll get the slight advantage.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Ryan Blaney vs. Martin Truex Jr.
Truex is no scrub at Phoenix, having top-two finishes in two of the last four races. Those both came before the Next Gen car, and he struggled last fall with moderate speed. Statistically, Blaney was among the best last season with two top fives and 252 laps led. The edge this week goes to the No. 12 team, as long as he has a clean race, something that hasn’t happened yet in 2023.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Christopher Bell vs. Ross Chastain
Chastain is the regular season championship leader after the third race of the season, and there are no signs of the No. 1 team letting up. Had it not been for a late restart in Vegas, he’d have top 10s in all three races in 2023. Bell rebounded late in last week’s race to earn a top-five finish, and he’s one of two drivers (Bowman) to have multiple top fives in the first three races of 2023. Both were quick in the fall race, being a part of the Championship 4, so go off gut instinct. Mine leans towards Chastain.

FEATURED MATCHUP:
Austin Cindric vs. Tyler Reddick
No one could have predicted the adversity Reddick would have to overcome early in his tenure at 23XI Racing. He DNF’d the first two races and ran outside the top 10 for the majority of the Las Vegas race. He’s tied with Travis Pastrana, who only competed in the Daytona 500, for 33rd in points. Still, the No. 45 Toyota has the upper hand this weekend, with Cindric having not shown a plethora of speed in downforce races this season. He did, however, snag a sixth-place finish in Las Vegas.

MY LINEUP: Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Martin Truex Jr.

GARAGE: Alex Bowman