Fantasy Fastlane: Can Ryan Blaney get back on track at Texas?

Before we get started this week, I’ve got a confession to make to the readers. In last week’s Fantasy Update, I said to stay away from Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell to save them for later in the Playoffs. While I did that myself – I used all three in the opening two races of the postseason and needed to save them with limited uses – they finished first, second and third and had the three highest points totals in the race. Ugh. On to Texas, where last year’s race was wild and unpredictable. It’s entirely possible that’s the case again this weekend. 

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MUST START:

Tyler Reddick | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 8-1

It would probably be a smart move to put the defending winner of this race in your lineup, right? The No. 45 team was mediocre at Bristol but started the playoffs with consecutive top-two finishes. The California native won last year’s race at Texas driving for Richard Childress Racing, and he also has top 10s in three of his four Cup starts at Texas.

MUST START:

Kyle Busch | View stats

Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet

Odds: 12-1

Busch had five straight top 10s at Texas before wrecking out early in last year’s race. Since 2018, he’s won two of the past eight races here. There’s been weeks this season where the No. 8 team hasn’t been able to get out of its own way and has too many practice crashes to count. But the Randall Burnett-led team is the defending winner of this event with Reddick last season.

MUST START:

Brad Keselowski | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 6 Ford

Odds: 16-1

Strike while the iron is hot with Keselowski. The No. 6 team was one of two playoff cars (Kyle Larson) to have single-digit finishes during all three races in the Round of 16. Keselowski also has four straight single-digit finishes at Texas, though three of those came with Team Penske. He won the pole at Texas last year and led 31 laps en route to an eighth-place finish.

MUST START:

Ryan Blaney | View stats

Team Penske, No. 12 Ford 

Odds: 12-1

With the lack of speed that Team Penske has shown over the summer months, it’s risky to start any of their drivers. Blaney hasn't had a top-five finish since winning the Coca-Cola 600 nearly four months ago. He has just five top 10s during that span, with four of those being ninth-place finishes. The No. 12 team was on fire at Texas in the Next Gen car’s first season, winning the All-Star Race and finishing fourth in the playoff race. We might have to reassess following practice and qualifying on Saturday.  

SLEEPER PICK:

Erik Jones | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 43 Chevrolet

Odds: 55-1

It sure seems like Legacy Motor Club has found its stride in the second half of the season, specifically with the No. 43 car. Jones was having another solid run at Bristol prior to cutting a right-front tire. In 11 Texas starts, Jones has seven top-10 results, placing sixth last season. Between 2018 and 2019, he had three straight fourth-place finishes. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Carson Hocevar | View stats

Legacy Motor Club, No. 42 Chevrolet

Odds: 150-1

While we’re talking Legacy M.C., it’s worth noting how impressive Hocevar has been in his first four Cup races. Sometimes, knowing what you don’t know can be a benefit to you in racing. At Bristol, Hocevar raced into the top five during the second stage and told his team if they could get him out front, he would set sail. This is one of the top prospects in the sport for a good reason, and he scored his first Craftsman Truck Series win at Texas earlier this season. 

SLEEPER PICK:

Michael McDowell | View stats

Front Row Motorsports, No. 34 Ford

Odds: 250-1

What McDowell and the No. 34 team have accomplished in 2023 should not get overlooked, even though he missed the Round of 12. McDowell became known for his spectacular qualifying wreck at Texas in 2008. He’s yet to score a top 10 finish in 24 starts and has an average finish of 29th. Those sound like “stay away from” numbers, but consider he did earn stage points in both stages last season and finished the 500-mile race in 11th. He’s also coming off arguably one of the best performances of his career at Bristol.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Chris Buescher | View stats

RFK Racing, No. 17 Ford

Odds: 15-1

Since winning at Richmond in late July, Buescher has been on a scorching hot run with five top-five finishes in the last eight races. None of those have come on 1.5-mile tracks, though Darlington at 1.33 miles is still considered an intermediate. The hometown driver has never run well at Texas, posting a best finish of 15th in 13 starts. If Buescher can survive this weekend, he should be able to advance as he’s superb at superspeedways and road courses. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Bubba Wallace | View stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 18-1

After advancing to the Round of 12, Wallace said Texas has always been a head scratcher for him. He’s shown signs of life at the 1.5-mile track, but the results would indicate differently. Aside from finishing eighth in his first start at Texas, six of his last seven starts at the track have resulted in finishes outside the top 20. Would highly advise saving the No. 23 car for Talladega next week. 

STAY AWAY FROM:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 150-1

Stenhouse has had his most consistent season in the Cup Series and should be commended for his performance. Just don’t look at his Texas numbers. Whether the old configuration or the new one, he’s yet to crack the top 10 in the final rundown in 18 starts. He did lead 23 laps last year, however, before dropping to 27th. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

William Byron vs. Martin Truex Jr.

Having used Byron twice in the Round of 16, it’s time to save him for Texas where the No. 24 car is expected to perform well at. Truex isn’t favorable at Texas, having never won in 33 starts. Fully on board with the No. 24 team for this matchup, with Byron finishing runner-up in 2021. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Chris Buescher vs. Kyle Busch

Buescher, the native Texan, continues to power on in the postseason under the radar. One of his achievements this season is breaking past trends. Busch is stellar at Texas, no matter the track layout. It’s entirely possible that he and the defending race-winning team could have its best weekend in months. Busch is the pick. 

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Ryan Blaney vs. Tyler Reddick

This is a tough one this weekend. The No. 12 team has gone missing since Charlotte, but typically runs well at Texas. It seems like the No. 45 bunch is peaking at the right time and could be a viable option to make a deep postseason push. Reddick is who I’m leaning to use, sheerly going off recent performance in 2023.

FEATURED MATCHUP:

Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson

It’s taken until now to finally mention the two hottest drivers in the sport. Hamlin easily could have swept the first round, leading 33.7% of all laps run. Instead, he won just one of those races and Larson picked up the Southern 500 trophy at Darlington and has three straight top-five finishes for the first time in the Next Gen era. Both drivers are formidable at Texas, but Larson as he’s had more recent success at the venue. 

MY LINEUP: Tyler Reddick, Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott

GARAGE: Joey Logano