Fantasy Fastlane: Hendrick Motorsports aims for three straight wins in Nashville

Hendrick Motorsports has won the first two NASCAR Cup Series races at Nashville Superspeedway in completely different ways. Kyle Larson crushed the field in the inaugural event in 2021, while Chase Elliott came on strong toward the end of the 400-miler last year, despite Toyota drivers leading 253 of 300 laps. This season, HMS and Toyota seem to be on a level playing field when it comes to the intermediate package. 

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MUST START: Kyle Larson | View Stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet

Odds: 5-1

After leading 264 laps and cruising to victory by nearly 4.5 seconds in the first rendition of the Cup Series at Nashville, Larson backed his 2021 performance up last year with a fourth-place finish. He’s one of two drivers to have top-five efforts in both Nashville races (more on that in a second). With multiple runner-up finishes in intermediate races this season, expect another strong performance from the No. 5 team this weekend. 

MUST START: Ross Chastain | View Stats

Trackhouse Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet

Odds: 11-1

Two years ago at Nashville felt like it was Chastain’s initial breakthrough race at the Cup level. It was his first top-five finish on an oval, placing fourth. In his first year with Trackhouse last season, he rounded out the top five and he’s the second driver to have top fives in both Nashville races. Appearing to have lost some of its speed from earlier this season, Nashville could be the race to get the No. 1 team back on track. 

MUST START: Martin Truex Jr. | View Stats

Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota

Odds: 7-1

Taking a bit of a risk with Truex this weekend, personally, with only four starts left with him over the next 10 races and tracks like New Hampshire and Richmond, where he excels at, on the horizon. With two wins over the last six races, the No. 19 team is heating up and is the new regular season championship leader. Truex was in contention to win at Nashville last year until he pitted during a late caution and dropped to 22nd. 

MUST START: William Byron | View Stats

Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet

Odds: 17-2

Prior to teams hitting the reset button with the off week, Byron was high on the list of potential championship favorites. No matter the style of track, the No. 24 team has been players thus far in 2023. Expect that to continue at Nashville, as Byron placed third in the 2021 race. 

SLEEPER PICK: Bubba Wallace | View Stats

23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota

Odds: 22-1

Over the last two seasons, Wallace has proved to be a formidable competitor on intermediate tracks, including a win at Kansas last fall. Last year at Nashville, the No. 23 car was among the quickest entries in the field until a couple of pit road miscues set off a tirade over the radio. Wallace has matured greatly in the last 365 days, and he is in position to make the postseason for the first time in his career. 

SLEEPER PICK: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View Stats

JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet

Odds: 100-1

Early in his Cup career, Stenhouse was known as “Concrete Ricky” as he had a knack for putting solid races together on concrete surfaces. Nashville is also a concrete track, and in two starts, he has an average finish of 11.0. This year’s Daytona 500 winner is on pace to shatter some of his best statistics in multiple categories. Through 16 races, he’s already tied his single-season high for top 10s (five) in his three previous years at JTG.

SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View Stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford

Odds: 100-1

It was a surprise two years ago when Almirola, who at the time was having a disastrous season, won the pole at Nashville. He went on to finish fourth, his only top-five finish of the 2021 season aside from winning at New Hampshire a month later. The No. 10 bunch is in desperate need for a solid finish as Almirola has just one top-10 result in 2023, which was sixth at Martinsville.

STAY AWAY FROM: Tyler Reddick | View Stats

23XI Racing, No. 45 Toyota

Odds: 16-1

Just about everything has changed for Reddick on the competition side compared to his first two starts at Nashville with Richard Childress Racing. In those two events, he has a pair of 18th-place finishes. With a solid practice and qualifying session, this could change, so we might revisit this later this week. But with two road courses and a street course coming up, I’m thinking about saving my use of the No. 45 car. 

STAY AWAY FROM: Chase Briscoe | View Stats

Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford

Odds: 100-1

Having one of the most significant penalties in NASCAR history and now a crew chief change, it hasn’t been an ideal month for Briscoe. In six races since finishing fourth at Talladega, which at the time was Briscoe’s third straight top-five finish, the No. 14 team has an average finish of 27th. The team hasn’t been any better in two Nashville starts, with an average finish of 32.5.

STAY AWAY FROM: Austin Cindric | View Stats

Team Penske, No. 2 Ford

Odds: 150-1 

Cindric’s first two full-time seasons at the Cup level have been a tale of two tapes. He clinched a playoff spot immediately in his rookie campaign ,while his sophomore season has been more of a slump. Team Penske did put all three of its cars inside the top 10 last season at Nashville, including a seventh-place effort from the No. 2 car. But there’s no momentum going for Cindric as he barely cracked the top 30 on a road course, where he excels, in the series’ last outing at Sonoma. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: Chase Elliott vs. Denny Hamlin

Quietly, Elliott has put together two top-five finishes in his last three starts. Hamlin has shown more raw speed on intermediate tracks and he led a race-high 114 laps from the pole last season at Nashville. Though Elliott needs a win, Hamlin should show more pace than the No. 9 car. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: Christopher Bell vs. Joey Logano

With consecutive third-place finishes at Gateway and Sonoma, the reigning champion Logano has back-to-back top fives for the first time in his title defense. Bell has dropped from the regular season championship leader to seventh in points over the last six races. Both drivers have top 10s in the two Nashville races, with Bell finishing one spot ahead in each race. If that remains true this weekend, go with the No. 20 car. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: Ryan Blaney vs. William Byron

The Coca-Cola 600 last month was a statement win for Blaney, ending a 59-race winless streak. Byron has shown speed everywhere, though, and leads the series in laps led, stage wins, top-five finishes and, even with a 60-point penalty, he sits second in points. It doesn’t seem like a falloff similar to 2022 is upcoming for Byron, so I’ll take him. Both drivers are available to use in my lineup. 

FEATURED MATCHUP: Ross Chastain vs. Bubba Wallace

Expecting good races from Chastain and Wallace this weekend as both of them are also included in my lineup. Because of Chastain’s immediate success at Nashville, I’ll give the upper hand to him. The No. 1 team needs to make it three-straight top fives at the 1.33-mile track this weekend. The last time the series went to a 1.33-mile track (Darlington), Chastain was in prime position to win late until chaos ensued. 

MY LINEUP: Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, Ryan Blaney
GARAGE: Bubba Wallace