Predicting every 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs race winner

Before the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs begin, NASCAR.com's Zack Albert, Pat DeCola and Zach Sturniolo revisit their race-winner picks from the pre-season. See all the predictions — some modified, some kept — before things kick off Sunday at Darlington Raceway (6 p.m. ET, USA Network, NBC Sports App, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, MRN)

Darlington

Our original pick: Kurt Busch
Pat DeCola's pick: Kevin Harvick

Why: Busch will unfortunately not be able to fulfill the preseason prophecy of the Southern 500 win I had him slotted in for, but his former teammate probably makes a better pick at this juncture anyway, given his recent success and somewhat unbelievable Darlington stats. Harvick is clearly starting to position himself as a legitimate title contender and could be the first one in the Round of 12 by Monday morning. He's the clear driver to beat at the South Carolina track, with three wins and having literally never finished outside the top nine there since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014.

Kansas

Our original pick: Kevin Harvick
Zach Sturniolo’s pick: Tyler Reddick

Why: This first round has the chance of being Reddick-heavy, but it’s easy to see why given his early-season history. Reddick led 24 laps at the 1.5-mile tri-oval back in May and was in contention for the win before suffering a flat tire in Stage 2. Now with two wins on his resume, the No. 8 Chevrolet could be an even stronger contender this time around.

Bristol Night Race

Our original pick: Kyle Busch
Pat DeCola's pick: Kyle Larson

Why: It doesn't seem to be talked about enough, but Bristol is quickly shifting from the playground of one Kyle to another. The reigning champ has led 175-plus laps in three of the past seven non-dirt races there, with a win and two runner-ups in that span. Busch could certainly still take this one (and did win here on dirt in the spring) but I feel better about where Larson is right now in general, so the nod goes to him.

Texas

Our original pick: Kyle Larson
Zack Albert’s pick: Ross Chastain

Why: Trackhouse's strength on intermediate-sized ovals -- Exhibit A: Coca-Cola 600 -- has been a strong suit, especially for the No. 1 team this year. Expecting big things here from Chastain, who has led multiple laps in each race at 1.5-mile tracks this year.

Talladega

Our original pick: Joey Logano
Zach Sturniolo’s pick: Chase Elliott

Why: Superspeedway racing produces plenty of chaos, as recently featured at Daytona. But the No. 9 Chevrolet usually finds its way to the front thanks to driver Elliott. Elliott finished inside the top 10 in four of his last five Daytona starts and earned another four top 10s in his last seven Talladega races, including a win in 2019. Anything can happen on the Alabama high banks, but Elliott may be due for a triumph come October.

Charlotte Roval

Our original pick: Chase Elliott
Zack Albert’s pick: Chase Elliott

Why: Sticking with the initial hunch here, and with pretty good reasons from the regular-season to back it up. Chevrolets have swept the road-course events so far this season, and Elliott remains a perennial top-five threat -- or better -- on that track type. His Roval record of two wins in the last three seasons is too enticing to dismiss, so Elliott keeps the nod.

Las Vegas

Our original pick: Ryan Blaney
Pat DeCola's pick: Martin Truex Jr.

Why: Surprise! You didn't think we'd go a whole season without seeing this Big Three member in Victory Lane, did you? The 2019 winner of this race has been the best driver at Vegas over the last 10 contests there, leading laps in all but two for a pair of victories, nine top 10s and a pristine 5.9 average finish. Truex isn't the kind of guy to just ride out the playoffs now that he's out of contention, and this might be his last best shot to make his mark on 2022.

Homestead-Miami

Our original pick: Tyler Reddick
Zach Sturniolo’s pick: Tyler Reddick

Why: I know – two of my three picks are Reddick, who finds himself in the postseason for just the second time in his career. But the third-year driver has been exceptional around the abrasive 1.5-mile oval in South Florida, collecting finishes of fourth and second in his lone two starts at Homestead. And oh by the way, a victory here would also propel Reddick into the Championship 4 at Phoenix, assuming he's made it this far.

Martinsville

Our original pick: Denny Hamlin
Pat DeCola's pick: Ryan Blaney

Why: This, to me, is still really a toss-up, as I expect both of the above drivers to make the Championship 4 (and perhaps even battle for the win in this one). I'm just getting the feeling that Blaney may go nearly the entire season without winning ... only to claim his spot at Phoenix with a last-ditch effort at Martinsville. He's never won there, but he's been the second-best driver at Martinsville over the last 10 races, with a 7.0 average finish, six top fives and 377 laps led.

Phoenix

Our original pick: Denny Hamlin (Zack Albert); Ryan Blaney (Pat DeCola)
Zack Albert’s pick: Denny Hamlin

Why: Again, staying with the first instinct and counting on Hamlin to deliver his first Cup Series title. This season has been bonkers in terms of trying to make reliable predictions, but Hamlin's history of three straight Championship 4 appearances point to him being there when the circuit returns to Phoenix.