NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs: 2021 staff predictions

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are officially here. The Round of 16 begins Sunday at Darlington Raceway with the Cook Out Southern 500 (6 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). So, the editorial staff at NASCAR.com has made postseason prediction. Each member picked the following: sleeper, surprise exit, Championship 4, pivotal non-title race, title pick and a random, bold prediction. Enjoy and come back Nov. 7 after the championship race at Phoenix Raceway.

Zack Albert | Follow on Twitter

Sleeper: Kurt Busch

Surprise exit: Alex Bowman

Championship 4: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch

Pivotal non-title race: Martinsville Speedway. The oldest track on the Cup Series calendar always delivers, and its positioning as the Round of 8 elimination remains a delicious bit of scheduling. Expect a full-contact classic that goes down to the wire.

Title pick: Denny Hamlin. Last year's trendy title favorite is this year's title sleeper, but he didn't lead the Cup Series standings for 22 straight weeks by puttering around. The playoff schedule presents a favorable lie for the No. 11 team. Now, about that first win ...

Random, bold prediction: Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and Tyler Reddick all win races in the postseason, giving all 16 playoff drivers a tally mark in their 2021 victory column.

RJ Kraft | Follow on Twitter

Sleeper: Christopher Bell

Surprise exit: Brad Keselowski

Championship 4: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin

Pivotal non-title race: Talladega Superspeedway. It may not be an elimination race, but it will see the biggest shifts on the cutline and in the standings we will see all playoffs long. At least two drivers in the playoffs will leave 'Dega facing win or go home scenarios at the Charlotte Roval.

Title pick: Chase Elliott. He becomes the first repeat champion since Jimmie Johnson.

Random, bold prediction: Christopher Bell makes the Round of 8.

Pat DeCola | Follow on Twitter

Sleeper: Kurt Busch

Surprise exit: Kyle Larson

Championship 4: Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott

Pivotal non-title race: Bristol Motor Speedway feels like it's going to set the tone for the playoffs. Expect upset drivers everywhere — both on pit road after the race and in Victory Lane as a surprise winner. With still seven races to go after that, tensions will be high and fuses will be short.

Title pick: Denny Hamlin. He learned what he needed to know for the playoffs early in the season — while juggling starting a new Cup team as a side hustle — and was just saving it all for the end.

Random, bold prediction: Kevin Harvick wins his first race of 2021 after being eliminated.

Steve Luvender | Follow on Twitter

Sleeper: Kurt Busch (He's literally No. 1.)

Surprise exit: Alex Bowman

Championship 4: William Byron, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr.

Pivotal non-title race: Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the Round of 12 opener and first 1.5-mile track in the playoffs. It’s the only race in the pivotal Round of 12 where it’ll take a perfect combination of off-the-truck speed, execution and strategy, whereas Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Roval leave much more to fate. In other words, teams will pull no punches attempting to lock in to the Round of 8 early and take a breather in two of the most chaotic races of the playoffs.

Title pick: Martin Truex Jr. will pick up his second title and hoist the Bill France Cup in Phoenix. Sure, he has had an abnormally quiet summer, but let’s not forget who won at Phoenix Raceway in the spring.

Random, bold prediction: A non-playoff driver will play spoiler and win a playoff race. The diversity of tracks and parity among race winners this year — combined with some teams trending upward in recent weeks and drivers who don’t have a job lined up for next year — create a recipe for even more unpredictability in what has already been a wild season.

Jonathan Merryman | Follow on Twitter

Sleeper: Kurt Busch

Surprise exit: Christopher Bell

Championship 4: Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano

Pivotal non-title race: Martinsville Speedway. The "Paperclip" is your last chance to make it to Phoenix Raceway. Winning this race can help you carry momentum into the final race of the NASCAR Playoffs and usually comes with post-race fireworks.

Title pick: Kyle Larson. He’s fast everywhere, and since letting one get away at Atlanta Motor Speedway early in the season, he has been iron clad. Look for the No. 5 in Phoenix in November.

Random, bold prediction: Ryan Blaney’s two wins to close out the regular season vaults him and his team into a championship contender. Blaney wins two races in the playoffs and makes it to the championship round.

Sean Montgomery | Follow on Twitter

Sleeper: Kyle Busch (somehow, we keep forgetting about him)

Surprise exit: Brad Keselowski

Championship 4: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney

Pivotal non-title race: Darlington Raceway. The opener is going to set the tone, especially with two short tracks on the horizon.

Title pick: Kyle Busch is still a strong candidate to win the 2021 title. A main reason is his consistent performance at almost every track type. Though he has taken a step back compared to some other hot hands this season, expect him to ramp it up in the playoffs.

Random, bold prediction: Ryan Blaney will be leading the standings heading into the Championship 4.

Terrin Waack | Follow on Twitter

Sleeper: Christopher Bell

Surprise exit: Chase Elliott

Championship 4: Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano

Pivotal non-title race: Talladega Superspeedway. A superspeedway race in the playoffs is bound to shake things up, and there’s no better time to shake things up right before a road-course elimination race at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Title pick: Denny Hamlin. It has to happen at some point, right? The fact he didn’t win during the regular season makes it all that more impressive he was in the running for the regular-season championship up until the very end, and I don’t see him remaining winless all season – no time like the postseason.

Random, bold prediction: Kyle Larson will not make the Championship 4 despite his regular-season dominance, which included the regular-season title. Getting big Kevin Harvick in 2020 vibes.

Alex Weaver | Follow on Twitter

Sleeper: William Byron

Surprise exit: Ryan Blaney

Championship 4: Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano

Pivotal non-title race: Charlotte Roval will be the pivotal non-title race with many heavyweights being knocked out after this round of the playoffs.

Title pick: Kyle Larson wins multiple races in the playoffs and goes on to win the race at Phoenix Raceway and the 2021 championship.

Random, bold prediction: Either Denny Hamlin or Kevin Harvick go winless for the full 2021 season.

Chase Wilhelm | Follow on Twitter

Sleeper: Christopher Bell

Surprise exit: Kyle Busch

Championship 4: Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr.

Pivotal non-title race: It’s hard not to think the Charlotte Roval won’t shake things up like it has in years past. The Round of 12 elimination race is bound to knock a driver or two out who we thought would cruise into the Round of 8.

Title pick: Ryan Blaney. Maybe I’m just riding a high of Blaney winning the final two regular-season races, or maybe this is the start of something special for the No. 12 team. I’m thinking the latter, though. While the rest of you pick Kyle Larson, I’m going to be different and see where it takes me.

Random, bold prediction: While I’m sure many are writing Michael McDowell of to make it into the Round of 12, I’m going to go out on a limb here. If McDowell can just have solid races at Darlington Raceway and Richmond Raceway, it’s Bristol Motor Speedway that I have my eye on for him to advance. He finished 14th and 10th there in 2020, so if a couple drivers falter in the first round, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for him to move on.

George Winkler | Follow on Twitter

Sleeper: William Byron

Surprise exit: Martin Truex Jr.

Championship 4: Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin

Pivotal non-title race: Kansas Speedway. If William Byron is still in the hunt, this could be where he sneaks his way into the Championship 4. Byron’s consistency across tracks, including at 1.5-milers, has been better than some of the top contenders this year.

Title pick: Kyle Larson. Even though the schedule of tracks doesn’t set up well for him, his pure driving talent might be better than anyone’s in the field right now. This is his year to cement his superstar status.

Random, bold prediction: Brad Keselowski doesn’t make it out of the Round of 16. Even though he has wins at all three of the tracks listed in this round, he has had some rocky performances coming down the stretch.

@nascarcasm | Follow on Twitter

Sleeper: Kurt Busch

Surprise exit: Chase Elliott

Championship 4: Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman

Pivotal non-title race: Las Vegas Motor Speedway. A win there comes with twice the benefits. First, you advanced to the Round of 8, and second, you can enjoy Talladega Superspeedway and the Charlotte Roval relatively stress-free.

Title pick: Kyle Larson. I know, I know... I'm going so far out on the limb with this pick that it's about to break, but I live dangerously.

Random, bold prediction: Atypically early exits for Team Penske, especially for noted dirt guy Joey Logano, who finds difficulty transitioning to concrete at Bristol Motor Speedway.