Bubble Watch: Who will be the catch of the day in Loudon and solidify Round of 8 contention?

Despite a wild Bristol Night Race to close the Round of 16, the four eliminations didn't come as a surprise. Now the temperature picks up as the Round of 12 begins at a very tricky oval in New Hampshire Motor Speedway. 

Before the green flag drops, check out who's trending toward a solid race in the Granite State, with the latest edition of Bubble Watch.

(Stats provided by Racing Insights)

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Ranking the Round of 12 drivers

Safely above the elimination line

1. Denny Hamlin (plus-26)

2. William Byron (plus-24)

3. Kyle Larson (plus-24)

4. Christopher Bell (plus-20)

Ryan Blaney

Points above cutline: 19

Chances of advancing to next round: 88.5%

Trending: Hot

New Hampshire outlook -- Ice Cold: It's wild that the biggest talking point surrounding Blaney recently was his run-in with Larson at Gateway because the 2023 champ has been putting up ridiculous numbers recently. With the exception of the Southern 500, Blaney has tallied a top 10 in every race dating back to Dover in July.

New Hampshire is a different beast though as Blaney has a best finish of just 18th in three Gen 7 starts at "The Magic Mile." 

Chase Briscoe

Points above cutline: 10

Chances of advancing to next round: 76.8%

Trending: Warm

New Hampshire outlook -- Warm: In most instances, I'd say to take Briscoe's past track stats with a grain of salt after piloting the No. 14 for the now-defunct Stewart-Haas Racing. However, Briscoe has been excellent in Loudon over the last three races with a runner-up in last year's event on wet-weather tires. 

Chase Elliott 

Points above cutline: 5

Chances of advancing to next round: 62.8%

Trending: Going Cold

New Hampshire outlook -- Cooling Off: Hendrick Motorsports' struggles on flatter and smaller ovals have been prevalent in recent years, but there should be optimism entering Sunday after the No. 9 team placed third at Gateway just two weeks ago. Since finishing runner-up in the 2022 New Hampshire race, Elliott has tallied 12th- and 18th-place results at the 1.058-mile facility.

Bubba Wallace

Points above cutline: 1

Chances of advancing to next round: 45.8%

Trending: Hit or Miss

New Hampshire outlook -- Hit or Miss: Wallace was on his way to a top 10 at Bristol before a late nudge from Brad Keselowski to Cole Custer ended up with the No. 41 tapping Wallace and putting him in the wall. 

Like he did in the Southern 500, the No. 23 driver will need a base hit to start the Round of 12 off on the right foot and put some distance between himself and the cutline. 

Wallace had consecutive top 10s at New Hampshire before getting caught up in a wreck in last year's Loudon event. 

Austin Cindric

Points below cutline: 1

Chances of advancing to next round: 14.2%

Trending: Cold

New Hampshire outlook -- Cold: Despite a smoke-filled cockpit on Bristol's pit road, Cindric stayed in the race and willed the No. 2 Team Penske Ford to 30th place to advance to the Round of 12 over Alex Bowman.

If Cindric's to make his first Round of 8, he'll need to tally his first New Hampshire top 10 on Sunday. 

Joey Logano

Points below cutline: 2

Chances of advancing to next round: 41.9%

Trending: Warming Up

New Hampshire outlook -- Hit or Miss: Every other playoff driver should be saying 'uh oh' with the three-time champ still eligible for the Cup title. Logano has never been eliminated in the Round of 12 since the inception of the playoffs. 

With consecutive top fives now, Logano is gaining momentum and has finished top five at New Hampshire in three of the last five races. 

Ross Chastain

Points below cutline: 2

Chances of advancing to next round: 42%

Trending: Ice Cold

New Hampshire outlook -- Warm: Chastain's just hung around in the playoffs -- doing enough to advance, but nothing to really stamp himself as a threat for a deep run. You have to go all the way back to Michigan (sixth) for his last finish in single digits. 

This is a boom-or-bust round for Chastain and New Hampshire could be big for the No. 1 Trackhouse team as Chastain has three top 10s in the last four races there. 

Tyler Reddick

Points below cutline: 3

Chances of advancing to next round: 54.1%

Trending: Cooling off

New Hampshire outlook -- Warm: Reddick nearly got win No. 1 of 2025 to kick off the playoffs at Darlington, but then finished 16th and 15th at Gateway and Bristol, respectively. It's been a head-scratching campaign for the No. 45 Toyota team and with consecutive sixth-place results in Loudon, Reddick will need to pull off something similar with Kansas looming, where 23XI Racing has lost its edge.