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NASCAR Playoff Watch 2022: How the postseason picture looks
By Zach Sturniolo | Tuesday, June 14, 2022
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Throughout the regular season, NASCAR.com will examine the playoff picture. Here's how the postseason picture looks through 16 regular-season races (out of 26) after the Cup Series race at Sonoma Raceway.
A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn five playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn one playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending on one point for the 10th-place finisher.
A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn five playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn one playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending on one point for the 10th-place finisher.
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*Note that the cutline sits at 11th place in the regular-season standings since that is the lowest non-winner in the provisional playoff field.
On the outside looking in:
Kevin Harvick (12th in regular-season standings, minus-7 points to 11th); Tyler Reddick (14th in regular-season standings, minus-42 points to 11th); Austin Dillon (15th in regular-season standings, minus-47 points to 11th); Erik Jones (16th in regular-season standings; minus-55 points to 11th).
Reddick is the only driver among this group who is looking for his first career Cup win. Harvick is on a 58-race winless streak but is the most recent winner among himself, Dillon and Jones.
On the outside looking in:
Kevin Harvick (12th in regular-season standings, minus-7 points to 11th); Tyler Reddick (14th in regular-season standings, minus-42 points to 11th); Austin Dillon (15th in regular-season standings, minus-47 points to 11th); Erik Jones (16th in regular-season standings; minus-55 points to 11th).
Reddick is the only driver among this group who is looking for his first career Cup win. Harvick is on a 58-race winless streak but is the most recent winner among himself, Dillon and Jones.
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16. Aric Almirola: 2,000 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Almirola got off to a hot start to the year, collecting three consecutive top-10 finishes. Since then, his season has been a bit of a roller coaster, posting just two additional top 10s in the last 13 races. But six top-20 finishes in his last seven races are enough to hold the final playoff position by a seven-point cushion after 16 starts.
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Almirola got off to a hot start to the year, collecting three consecutive top-10 finishes. Since then, his season has been a bit of a roller coaster, posting just two additional top 10s in the last 13 races. But six top-20 finishes in his last seven races are enough to hold the final playoff position by a seven-point cushion after 16 starts.
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15. Christopher Bell: 2,001 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Bell has shown plenty of speed this season, evidenced by a recent streak of five consecutive top-10 finishes. That run came to an end at Sonoma, where he finished 27th, but the No. 20 Toyota has been a legitimate factor more often than not in 2022. With three poles to his credit this year, there may still be more success to come.
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Bell has shown plenty of speed this season, evidenced by a recent streak of five consecutive top-10 finishes. That run came to an end at Sonoma, where he finished 27th, but the No. 20 Toyota has been a legitimate factor more often than not in 2022. With three poles to his credit this year, there may still be more success to come.
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14. Martin Truex Jr., 2,008 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Truex is still searching for his first victory in the Next Gen era, which comes as a bit of a surprise for the 2017 Cup champion. Truex has won at least once in each of the last seven seasons, each year scoring a victory prior to race No. 15. The last time he went winless was 2014, but he won at Sonoma in race No. 16 in 2013. Two top fives and seven top 10s aren't what the No. 19 team is looking for, but he's 65 points ahead of the playoff cut line heading into the season's lone off-week.
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Truex is still searching for his first victory in the Next Gen era, which comes as a bit of a surprise for the 2017 Cup champion. Truex has won at least once in each of the last seven seasons, each year scoring a victory prior to race No. 15. The last time he went winless was 2014, but he won at Sonoma in race No. 16 in 2013. Two top fives and seven top 10s aren't what the No. 19 team is looking for, but he's 65 points ahead of the playoff cut line heading into the season's lone off-week.
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13. Ryan Blaney, 2,011 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 4
Quick hit: Blaney started 2022 with blazing speed, leading 339 laps in the first eight races despite not scoring a win. But the last eight haven't gone as well, highlighted by 46 laps led and a disappointing stretch that saw five straight finishes outside the top 10. Nonetheless, he sits fourth in the overall standings and holds a sizable 95-point cushion to the cut line.
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 4
Quick hit: Blaney started 2022 with blazing speed, leading 339 laps in the first eight races despite not scoring a win. But the last eight haven't gone as well, highlighted by 46 laps led and a disappointing stretch that saw five straight finishes outside the top 10. Nonetheless, he sits fourth in the overall standings and holds a sizable 95-point cushion to the cut line.
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12. Denny Hamlin, 2,012 points
Qualified by: Wins (Richmond, Charlotte)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: After a dismal start to his year, Hamlin is tied for the series-lead in victories with wins at Richmond and Charlotte. His luck since winning Charlotte has been subpar, scoring two consecutive finishes outside the top 30, but winning solves plenty and the No. 11 Toyota hasn't seemed short on speed lately.
Qualified by: Wins (Richmond, Charlotte)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: After a dismal start to his year, Hamlin is tied for the series-lead in victories with wins at Richmond and Charlotte. His luck since winning Charlotte has been subpar, scoring two consecutive finishes outside the top 30, but winning solves plenty and the No. 11 Toyota hasn't seemed short on speed lately.
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11. Kurt Busch, 2,007 points
Qualified by: Win (Kansas)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: Busch has had quite the topsy-turvy tenure in his first year at 23XI Racing. Mixed with his one win and four top fives are six finishes outside the top 25, including three DNFs. In fact, his past four races summarize his first 16 races well: a win at Kansas followed by a 31st-place result at Charlotte, a third-place effort at Gateway and an 18th-place finish at Sonoma.
Qualified by: Win (Kansas)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: Busch has had quite the topsy-turvy tenure in his first year at 23XI Racing. Mixed with his one win and four top fives are six finishes outside the top 25, including three DNFs. In fact, his past four races summarize his first 16 races well: a win at Kansas followed by a 31st-place result at Charlotte, a third-place effort at Gateway and an 18th-place finish at Sonoma.
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10. Austin Cindric, 2,006 points
Qualified by: Win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: The Team Penske rookie was the first driver to collect a playoff spot with his win in the Daytona 500. Cindric's season has been one you might expect from a rookie: up and down. His fifth-place finish at Sonoma was his first top five since winning at Daytona and first top 10 since placing sixth at Circuit of The Americas. But scattered in are 11th-place finishes at Martinsville, Kansas and Gateway, where he led 26 laps.
Qualified by: Win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: The Team Penske rookie was the first driver to collect a playoff spot with his win in the Daytona 500. Cindric's season has been one you might expect from a rookie: up and down. His fifth-place finish at Sonoma was his first top five since winning at Daytona and first top 10 since placing sixth at Circuit of The Americas. But scattered in are 11th-place finishes at Martinsville, Kansas and Gateway, where he led 26 laps.
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9. Daniel Suárez, 2,007 points
Qualified by: Win (Sonoma)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: Suárez became the 12th different winner of 2022 by snagging his first career victory Sunday at Sonoma. His win shouldn't be an enormous surprise considering he dominated Stage 1 at COTA, but much of Suárez's season has lacked late-race execution, with just one top 10 in his prior 10 starts. A victory entrenches him in the playoff grid, a wonderful bonus for the first Mexican-born driver to win a Cup Series race.
Qualified by: Win (Sonoma)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: Suárez became the 12th different winner of 2022 by snagging his first career victory Sunday at Sonoma. His win shouldn't be an enormous surprise considering he dominated Stage 1 at COTA, but much of Suárez's season has lacked late-race execution, with just one top 10 in his prior 10 starts. A victory entrenches him in the playoff grid, a wonderful bonus for the first Mexican-born driver to win a Cup Series race.
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8. Chase Briscoe, 2,006 points
Qualified by: Win (Phoenix)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Briscoe is enjoying quite the turnaround from his rookie season. The No. 14 Ford went to Victory Lane at Phoenix in March and was in contention to win at Bristol dirt and Charlotte before his last-lap lunges cost him the win. Briscoe could use some consistency -- his fourth-place finish at Charlotte is his lone top 10 in the last eight races -- but he can start to build that up over the next 10 races before the postseason begins.
Qualified by: Win (Phoenix)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Briscoe is enjoying quite the turnaround from his rookie season. The No. 14 Ford went to Victory Lane at Phoenix in March and was in contention to win at Bristol dirt and Charlotte before his last-lap lunges cost him the win. Briscoe could use some consistency -- his fourth-place finish at Charlotte is his lone top 10 in the last eight races -- but he can start to build that up over the next 10 races before the postseason begins.
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7. Alex Bowman, 2,008 points
Qualified by: Win (Las Vegas)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Much of Bowman's year hasn't been flashy, but the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet is averaging a career-best 12.1 finish, which is second-best in Cup. His win at Las Vegas charged him into the playoffs once again, and, despite leading just 18 laps all year, he's set for another postseason run.
Qualified by: Win (Las Vegas)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Much of Bowman's year hasn't been flashy, but the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet is averaging a career-best 12.1 finish, which is second-best in Cup. His win at Las Vegas charged him into the playoffs once again, and, despite leading just 18 laps all year, he's set for another postseason run.
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6. William Byron, 2,016 points
Qualified by: Wins (Atlanta, Martinsville)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Byron was the first to score a second win this year, but his results since win No. 2 at Martinsville have been disappointing. A ninth-place finish Sunday at Sonoma was his first top-10 finish since that triumph. That said, he was six turns away from at least a runner-up result at Darlington before he was bumped out of the way and led 25 laps at Kansas before suffering a flat tire. The off-week may come at a good time for the No. 24 team.
Qualified by: Wins (Atlanta, Martinsville)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Byron was the first to score a second win this year, but his results since win No. 2 at Martinsville have been disappointing. A ninth-place finish Sunday at Sonoma was his first top-10 finish since that triumph. That said, he was six turns away from at least a runner-up result at Darlington before he was bumped out of the way and led 25 laps at Kansas before suffering a flat tire. The off-week may come at a good time for the No. 24 team.
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5. Kyle Larson, 2,011 points
Qualified by: Win (Auto Club)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: The defending Cup Series champion has certainly slowed from his winning pace a season ago, but 10 wins? That was always a tough act to follow. The No. 5 team has just one top five in its last six starts, although Larson was eyeing a Charlotte victory if not for multiple late yellows.
Qualified by: Win (Auto Club)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: The defending Cup Series champion has certainly slowed from his winning pace a season ago, but 10 wins? That was always a tough act to follow. The No. 5 team has just one top five in its last six starts, although Larson was eyeing a Charlotte victory if not for multiple late yellows.
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4. Joey Logano, 2,018 points
Qualified by: Wins (Darlington, Gateway)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: Logano's season is another case of all or nothing. Four of his last nine starts have ended in top-three results, including his two victories. The other five finishes were 17th or worse. But the 2018 Cup champion is buoyed by his two wins and 131 stage points, second-most in the series.
Qualified by: Wins (Darlington, Gateway)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: Logano's season is another case of all or nothing. Four of his last nine starts have ended in top-three results, including his two victories. The other five finishes were 17th or worse. But the 2018 Cup champion is buoyed by his two wins and 131 stage points, second-most in the series.
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3. Kyle Busch, 2,019 points
Qualified by: Win (Bristol Dirt Race)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: The two-time champion leads the series in average finish with an 11.8 mark through 16 races. Busch has yet to check off a second win in 2022, but the No. 18 Toyota has been in the mix often, notching five top-three finishes in the last eight races, including his March victory at Bristol.
Qualified by: Win (Bristol Dirt Race)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: The two-time champion leads the series in average finish with an 11.8 mark through 16 races. Busch has yet to check off a second win in 2022, but the No. 18 Toyota has been in the mix often, notching five top-three finishes in the last eight races, including his March victory at Bristol.
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2. Ross Chastain, 2,018 points
Qualified by: Wins (COTA, Talladega)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Welcome to the big show indeed. In his second true full-time season, Chastain has taken Trackhouse Racing to Victory Lane twice and is tied with Byron for the third-most stage points (120) in Cup. His last five races haven't been as stellar, but the No. 1 Chevrolet sits second in the overall standings.
Qualified by: Wins (COTA, Talladega)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Welcome to the big show indeed. In his second true full-time season, Chastain has taken Trackhouse Racing to Victory Lane twice and is tied with Byron for the third-most stage points (120) in Cup. His last five races haven't been as stellar, but the No. 1 Chevrolet sits second in the overall standings.
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1. Chase Elliott, 2,023 points
Qualified by: Win (Dover)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Nobody has earned more stage points than Elliott, who's accumulated 136 stage points through the opening 16 races. The points leader and 2020 Cup champion is back in the playoffs thanks to his May win at Dover but is looking for a bit of a reset after a shaky overall May. An eighth-place finish at Sonoma was his first top-20 finish since placing fifth at Darlington on May 8.
Qualified by: Win (Dover)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Nobody has earned more stage points than Elliott, who's accumulated 136 stage points through the opening 16 races. The points leader and 2020 Cup champion is back in the playoffs thanks to his May win at Dover but is looking for a bit of a reset after a shaky overall May. An eighth-place finish at Sonoma was his first top-20 finish since placing fifth at Darlington on May 8.
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