@nascarcasm: Why each playoff driver will or won’t win the championship

It’s time for playoff hypotheticals! We now give you the reasons why each driver can win the 2021 championship … and why they can’t. Deep stuff.

WILL: Despite a difficult first half of the season, flashed championship-caliber capabilities with his stunning victory at New Hampshire.

WON’T: Statistically in 2021, doesn’t perform well enough at tracks where there isn’t a hideous saltwater crustacean presented to the victor. Now, if for some reason Kansas decides to start handing out hermit crabs in Victory Lane, game changer for Aric.

WILL: None of us would have guessed he’d be the first driver from the Joe Gibbs Racing stable to win in 2021, and we were woefully incorrect. Who knows what else he has hidden up his sleeve.

WON’T: The new rule that in order to advance to the next round, drivers must have a three-hour sit-down meal with Kyle Larson.

WILL: Blaney’s sneaky-good. His victories are always tense affairs with slim margins of victory and happen in races where in Stages 1 and 2 you haven’t heard his name mentioned. He can use this to his advantage and shock the world.

WON’T: It will be hard for him to block out the usual distractions during the playoffs, such as the 300,000 teenage girls who will ask him on Twitter to be their date to Homecoming.

WILL: Why not now? He and the No. 48 team have three wins this season and Bowman has morphed from the embodiment of bad luck to a serious title contender.

WON’T: In danger of elimination in the Round of 12, he fails to install updates on his sim and logs laps on the oval at Charlotte instead of the Roval.

WILL: This guy is a seasoned veteran who can come to life in the playoffs. You’ll all remember his win at Las Vegas last year, which allowed him to not sweat Talladega and the Roval — two tracks that can cause severe abdominal distension and bloating for those on the cutline.

WON’T: Has a rough Round of 16, and like his beloved Chicago Bears, finds himself eliminated from the playoffs in mid-September.

WILL: Because no matter the circumstance, Kyle Busch is always a threat, whether it’s in a race, a 10-race-playoff or a twerking contest.

WON’T: Communication breakdown. Kyle will report “IT’S ----ING TIGHT” on the radio but his crew chief won’t make any adjustments during the next pit stop because he thought Kyle was talking about the Speedo he was wearing rather than the race car.

WILL: Willy B and the No. 24 team are able to rekindle the magic they had earlier in the year that earned them one win and 11 consecutive top-10 finishes.

WON’T: I’m sure there’s a reason, but it doesn’t really matter what it is because at his age, William has like 35 more seasons to win a championship.

WILL: Obviously he knows how. He caught fire during the playoffs last year, and thanks to his on-track performance (and a jackman who knows the rule book better than Justin Haley knows which restrooms have that one urinal that’s lower than all the others), he was able to seal the deal and can do it again.

WON’T: Some bizarre reason that even if it’s a piece of space junk falling from the sky onto the No. 9 car for three races in a row, Chase Elliott will somehow blame on himself.

WILL: How many times have we watched Hamlin knock down win after win during the regular season and say to ourselves, “OK, THIS is the year” confidently? Perhaps the absence of this expectation will allow him to deliver!*

(*This metaphor brought to you by his sponsor.)

WON’T: Top-10 and top-five finishes have not been difficult for him to come by — it’s those tricky top ones.

WILL: The driver of 4,000 nicknames could come alive in the final 10 races of the year, allowing nickname No. 1,844, “The Closer,” to apply to the season as a whole as opposed to just a single race.

WON’T: It has been the least Harvick-y year ever, as he has gone winless in the regular season. He may be the only human being on the planet to ever say, “MAN, I miss 2020.”

WILL: What better going-away present for Roger Penske than another NASCAR championship? It would distract Roger so Brad can spend his last days in the Penske offices raiding the supply closet for reams of paper, pens and staples before he leaves.

WON’T: There’s only one road course in the playoffs. This could hinder Brad – a true virtuoso and overall lover of the twisties. My how he loves them. So much.

WILL: Because he’s Kyle Larson. I mean, I could barf out statistics here but why bother when the previous sentence is all I need. Just look at the guy’s weekly schedule. When he’s not winning races, he’s winning races. Human cheat code, this guy.

WON’T: The only thing that could maybe hinder his championship hopes is weather. And I’m not talking about rain delays, but rather an unexpected ice storm in Hell.

WILL: It hasn’t been the greatest year for Joey, but he’s just good enough you can never count him out. You can see him winning the whole thing, if you squint hard enough.

WON’T: The 10 playoff tracks don’t really favor a dirt guy like Joey Logano.

WILL: Every NCAA tournament has that 16-seed that stuns the world and makes it to the Final Four, so with a steady hand and avoidance of trouble, it could be McDowell.

WON’T: The only driver in the playoff era to win the Daytona 500 and the championship in the same year is a fellow named Jimmie Johnson. That’s a very, very high bar, and if McDowell’s pole-vaulting abilities are similar to his fighting abilities, it’ll be difficult to pull off.

WILL: For better or for worse, Tyler Reddick leaves it all out there on track. For better, we mean he’s a wheelman who leaves every ounce of effort and skill out there on track. For worse, we mean he sometimes leaves large pieces of sheet metal out on track. But I’ll argue he’s the most fun guys to watch out there.

WON’T: He’ll think the playoffs end after the Round of 8 and leave for vacation.

WILL: The three tracks he won at this season (Phoenix, Darlington, Martinsville) are also in the playoffs.

WON’T: Hasn’t won a championship since 2017, which I think is also the last time he logged on to Twitter.