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Over or under? NASCAR.com staff prop bets for the 2019 season
By Staff Report | Published: February 11, 2019 15
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From drivers in new places to a fresh rules package, the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season is setting up to be a historic one. With all the excitement and anticipation swirling, the NASCAR.com staff decided to up the ante. As we get set for the Daytona 500, here are 14 (fake) prop bets for the year ahead.
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Wins for Kyle Busch this season: 5.5
Over by a longshot. Last season, Kyle Busch racked up eight wins -- tying a personal record set in 2008. That number is impressive in itself, but especially when you had the likes of Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. breathing down your neck all season long. Now that Truex and crew chief Cole Pearn are in-house at Joe Gibbs Racing, Busch and crew chief Adam Stevens can work more closely with them and become even stronger. Look for "Rowdy" to win early and often. Honestly, it would be more surprising if a replication of last year's eight-win season didn't happen. -- Chase Wilhelm
Over by a longshot. Last season, Kyle Busch racked up eight wins -- tying a personal record set in 2008. That number is impressive in itself, but especially when you had the likes of Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. breathing down your neck all season long. Now that Truex and crew chief Cole Pearn are in-house at Joe Gibbs Racing, Busch and crew chief Adam Stevens can work more closely with them and become even stronger. Look for "Rowdy" to win early and often. Honestly, it would be more surprising if a replication of last year's eight-win season didn't happen. -- Chase Wilhelm
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Wins for Kevin Harvick this season: 5.5
Under. Before winning eight races last season, Harvick had never won more than five races in a season. Plus, with the new rules package, how the intermediate tracks play out is a bit of a mystery, making it more difficult to count on Harvick having the same level of dominance there. -- George Winkler
Under. Before winning eight races last season, Harvick had never won more than five races in a season. Plus, with the new rules package, how the intermediate tracks play out is a bit of a mystery, making it more difficult to count on Harvick having the same level of dominance there. -- George Winkler
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Wins for Jimmie Johnson this season: 0.5
Over. Over. Over. Have I said over? The question of whether or not Jimmie Johnson will win this year probably is a fair one -- he's coming off the worst statistical season of his career, he's not getting any younger and he has a brand-new, first-time Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series crew chief in Kevin Meendering. Those don't give us any pause. Johnson seems reinvigorated with a bounce back in his step, and the Chevrolet Camaro is bound to be faster in Year 2. So give us the over. And give us multiple wins. -- Brad Norman
Over. Over. Over. Have I said over? The question of whether or not Jimmie Johnson will win this year probably is a fair one -- he's coming off the worst statistical season of his career, he's not getting any younger and he has a brand-new, first-time Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series crew chief in Kevin Meendering. Those don't give us any pause. Johnson seems reinvigorated with a bounce back in his step, and the Chevrolet Camaro is bound to be faster in Year 2. So give us the over. And give us multiple wins. -- Brad Norman
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Wins for 2019 rookie class: 0.5
Under. Daniel Hemric, Ryan Preece, Matt Tifft and Tanner Berryhill make up a solid Monster Energy Series rookie class but it's hard to win at the top level whether you have 10 years of experience or have that rookie stripe. Young stars Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Erik Jones and Ryan Blaney did not win in their rookie seasons. In fact, Chris Buescher (in 2016) is the only rookie to win a race in his freshman season since the start of 2010. The numbers and history strongly suggest the rookie class will go winless so I'm taking the under. -- RJ Kraft
Under. Daniel Hemric, Ryan Preece, Matt Tifft and Tanner Berryhill make up a solid Monster Energy Series rookie class but it's hard to win at the top level whether you have 10 years of experience or have that rookie stripe. Young stars Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Erik Jones and Ryan Blaney did not win in their rookie seasons. In fact, Chris Buescher (in 2016) is the only rookie to win a race in his freshman season since the start of 2010. The numbers and history strongly suggest the rookie class will go winless so I'm taking the under. -- RJ Kraft
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Top-five finishes by Martin Truex Jr.: 18.5
Over. Martin Truex Jr. enters the 2019 Monster Energy Series with 39 top-five finishes over the last two seasons. His move to Joe Gibbs Racing this season shouldn't hinder that; rather, the move may strengthen his performance, as crew chief Cole Pearn will now be in-house at JGR and working with a larger group of experienced personnel. Truex Jr. should pick up right where he left off. -- Jessica Ruffin
Over. Martin Truex Jr. enters the 2019 Monster Energy Series with 39 top-five finishes over the last two seasons. His move to Joe Gibbs Racing this season shouldn't hinder that; rather, the move may strengthen his performance, as crew chief Cole Pearn will now be in-house at JGR and working with a larger group of experienced personnel. Truex Jr. should pick up right where he left off. -- Jessica Ruffin
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Top-10 finishes by Matt DiBenedetto: 12.5
The line for LFR and DiBenedetto is a close one. I think this team will teeter on 12-13 top-10 finishes but I'm taking the over. If they play their cards right and capitalize on Mike Wheeler's experience, JGR's support and DiBenedetto's talent that we have seen glimpses of in the past, they should be able to nab 13 or 14 top 10s in 2019. -- Jonathan Merryman
The line for LFR and DiBenedetto is a close one. I think this team will teeter on 12-13 top-10 finishes but I'm taking the over. If they play their cards right and capitalize on Mike Wheeler's experience, JGR's support and DiBenedetto's talent that we have seen glimpses of in the past, they should be able to nab 13 or 14 top 10s in 2019. -- Jonathan Merryman
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Total wins for Stewart-Haas Racing: 10.5
Under. Stewart-Haas Racing is coming off a dominant 2018 season with 12 wins among all four drivers but after an off-season of change, it would be tough to beat that number in 2019. Kevin Harvick won three of the first four races to start the season and finished strong with eight wins total. Kurt Busch is being replaced by Daniel Suarez, the youngin' who has yet to win a race in the Monster Energy Series. With the excitement of a new team and entering a new chapter in his racing story, Suarez could very well pull off his first (or even second and third) career win but it could take some time. Clint Bowyer won two races last season, but 2019 was full of ups and downs. Aric Almirola is eager to win again after claiming his second-career victory at Talladega and he's a strong contender to win races this season. The SHR guys will certainly put up a fight and rack up victories, but it won't be a duplication of last year's 12-win season. -- Marissa Fuller
Under. Stewart-Haas Racing is coming off a dominant 2018 season with 12 wins among all four drivers but after an off-season of change, it would be tough to beat that number in 2019. Kevin Harvick won three of the first four races to start the season and finished strong with eight wins total. Kurt Busch is being replaced by Daniel Suarez, the youngin' who has yet to win a race in the Monster Energy Series. With the excitement of a new team and entering a new chapter in his racing story, Suarez could very well pull off his first (or even second and third) career win but it could take some time. Clint Bowyer won two races last season, but 2019 was full of ups and downs. Aric Almirola is eager to win again after claiming his second-career victory at Talladega and he's a strong contender to win races this season. The SHR guys will certainly put up a fight and rack up victories, but it won't be a duplication of last year's 12-win season. -- Marissa Fuller
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Total wins for Joe Gibbs Racing: 14.5
I'll take the over here. It may seem bold, but the current Gibbs lineup combined for 13 wins last year (with Martin Truex Jr. securing four for Furniture Row Racing). Truex and crew chief Cole Pearn are now working directly in the JGR shop and I expect an uptick in overall team performance as a result. Kyle Busch and Truex are both capable of popping off double-digit wins, and it seems unlikely that Denny Hamlin gets shut out again. Toss in a win or two (or more!) from Erik Jones and we're easily talking 15-plus. -- Pat DeCola
I'll take the over here. It may seem bold, but the current Gibbs lineup combined for 13 wins last year (with Martin Truex Jr. securing four for Furniture Row Racing). Truex and crew chief Cole Pearn are now working directly in the JGR shop and I expect an uptick in overall team performance as a result. Kyle Busch and Truex are both capable of popping off double-digit wins, and it seems unlikely that Denny Hamlin gets shut out again. Toss in a win or two (or more!) from Erik Jones and we're easily talking 15-plus. -- Pat DeCola
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Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images
Total winners in the season’s first 10 races: 6.5
Over. In 2018, we saw six different winners in the first 10 events, which also included three-race winning streaks by both Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch in that time frame. With all the unknowns of the 2019 rules package set to be fully implemented into the Monster Energy Series at Las Vegas in March, it's a perfect opportunity to see more variety in the win column early on in the year. It'll be more difficult for drivers like Harvick and Busch to rattle off consecutive victories, opening up the door for different visitors to Victory Lane from Daytona to Talladega. -- Chase Wilhelm
Over. In 2018, we saw six different winners in the first 10 events, which also included three-race winning streaks by both Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch in that time frame. With all the unknowns of the 2019 rules package set to be fully implemented into the Monster Energy Series at Las Vegas in March, it's a perfect opportunity to see more variety in the win column early on in the year. It'll be more difficult for drivers like Harvick and Busch to rattle off consecutive victories, opening up the door for different visitors to Victory Lane from Daytona to Talladega. -- Chase Wilhelm
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Number of lead changes in Daytona 500: 29
Under. The 29 number is the average number of lead changes in the last seven editions of the Great American Race. Here's leaning to a slightly lesser number in 2019, with drivers using their heads and saving the more aggressive racing for the end. If the overtime attempts ramp up the intensity level, however, all bets are off. -- Zack Albert
Under. The 29 number is the average number of lead changes in the last seven editions of the Great American Race. Here's leaning to a slightly lesser number in 2019, with drivers using their heads and saving the more aggressive racing for the end. If the overtime attempts ramp up the intensity level, however, all bets are off. -- Zack Albert
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Number of Joe Gibbs Racing drivers to make the playoffs: 3.5
Over: Joe Gibbs Racing combined for nine victories in 2018, with three of its four drivers advancing in the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs. The overall strength of Joe Gibbs Racing should provide plenty of speed for the group's three returning drivers -- Kyle Busch, Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin -- to qualify for the playoffs. The fourth JGR car -- Daniel Suarez's No. 19 -- was the only one to not make the postseason run for the championship and with 2017 Monster Energy Series champion Martin Truex Jr. stepping into that car this year, that should change in '19. -- Jessica Ruffin
Over: Joe Gibbs Racing combined for nine victories in 2018, with three of its four drivers advancing in the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs. The overall strength of Joe Gibbs Racing should provide plenty of speed for the group's three returning drivers -- Kyle Busch, Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin -- to qualify for the playoffs. The fourth JGR car -- Daniel Suarez's No. 19 -- was the only one to not make the postseason run for the championship and with 2017 Monster Energy Series champion Martin Truex Jr. stepping into that car this year, that should change in '19. -- Jessica Ruffin
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Number of Stewart-Haas Racing drivers to make the playoffs: 3.5
I'm taking the under even though the expectation in the garage is that all four drivers make the playoffs for Stewart-Haas Racing. My only hang-up is with the 2019 rules package. I think SHR will succeed with this, but I also think others will, too. It's not that I think all four cars won't win, I just think we can have more than 16 winners and that may cause one of their drivers to be the odd man out. -- Jonathan Merryman
I'm taking the under even though the expectation in the garage is that all four drivers make the playoffs for Stewart-Haas Racing. My only hang-up is with the 2019 rules package. I think SHR will succeed with this, but I also think others will, too. It's not that I think all four cars won't win, I just think we can have more than 16 winners and that may cause one of their drivers to be the odd man out. -- Jonathan Merryman
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Number of Hendrick drivers to make the playoffs: 2.5
Going with the over here, but I toiled on this one. Assuming that Chase Elliott continues his ascent and wins more races this year and Jimmie Johnson remembers he's, you know, Jimmie Johnson, each should lock himself into the playoffs with a trip to Victory Lane. It then comes down to whether or not Alex Bowman, William Byron or both could squeak in. They're both capable of winning races in 2019 -- in fact, I sort of think they both will -- and that basically means there are 52 regular season opportunities for one of them to win a race. In Hendrick equipment, I like those chances. -- Pat DeCola
Going with the over here, but I toiled on this one. Assuming that Chase Elliott continues his ascent and wins more races this year and Jimmie Johnson remembers he's, you know, Jimmie Johnson, each should lock himself into the playoffs with a trip to Victory Lane. It then comes down to whether or not Alex Bowman, William Byron or both could squeak in. They're both capable of winning races in 2019 -- in fact, I sort of think they both will -- and that basically means there are 52 regular season opportunities for one of them to win a race. In Hendrick equipment, I like those chances. -- Pat DeCola
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Number of first-time winners in 2019: 1.5
Over. Daniel Suarez and William Byron both underwent changes this year that could light a fire beneath them with Suarez heading to Stewart-Haas Racing and Byron getting Chad Knaus as his new crew chief. There's always the possibility of a surprise winner like an Alex Bowman at Daytona or Talladega, and the new rules package could lead to more parity than in recent years. -- George Winkler
Over. Daniel Suarez and William Byron both underwent changes this year that could light a fire beneath them with Suarez heading to Stewart-Haas Racing and Byron getting Chad Knaus as his new crew chief. There's always the possibility of a surprise winner like an Alex Bowman at Daytona or Talladega, and the new rules package could lead to more parity than in recent years. -- George Winkler