Bubble Watch: Johnson in precarious spot; others in must-win scenarios

Indianapolis.



Twenty-five races down, one to go. The regular season ends Sunday at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard (2 p.m. ET, NBC/NBC Sports App, IMS Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), and the 16-driver playoff field will be set. We've got a seven-time champion on the outside looking in and only two spots left to claim. Let's take a dive into every driver in the top 30 in the standings and see who is in a must-win situation.

Clint Bowyer +8 points above cutline

Where he stands ... Bowyer currently owns one of the final two provisional playoff spots, along with Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Daniel Suarez. Sitting 15th in the standings, Bowyer must have a mistake-free, solid race Sunday at Indy. He has finished in the top 10 in the last two races and heads to the Brickyard with momentum on his side.

Daniel Suarez +0 points above the cutline

Where he stands ... Suarez joins Bowyer in one of the two final spots of the provisional playoffs. Still, he has to have a strong showing Sunday or risks being bumped below the line. Suarez sits tied with Ryan Newman, who is the first driver below the cutline, so the pressure is on. With only two starts at the Brickyard, Suarez and the No. 41 team must play smart in order to keep themselves in the playoff picture. Suarez's best finish at the track is seventh in 2017.

Ryan Newman -0 points below the cutline

Where he stands ... Newman currently is tied with Suarez, who claimed the final spot of the provisional playoff field. Newman has a lot more experience at Indy than Suarez, with 18 starts, one win (2013), three top fives and five top 10s. Newman hasn't finished in the top 10 since New Hampshire Motor Speedway, so he can only hope Sunday will spark something for the Roush Fenway Racing driver.

Jimmie Johnson -18 points below the cutline

Where he stands ... Johnson is the final driver who has the ability to clinch a playoff spot on points. The seven-time champ sits below the cutline and is at risk of missing the playoffs for the first time since the postseason format began in 2004. Luckily for Johnson, a trip to Indianapolis might be just what he needs. After a promising weekend at Darlington Raceway turned sour, Indy is a track where Johnson shines. He has four wins, six top fives and seven top 10s in 17 starts.

*Editor's note: From Menard on down, these drivers cannot clinch on points and must win.

Paul Menard 19th in standings

Where he stands ... After last weekend at Darlington, where five drivers clinched a playoff spot, Menard's only way into the picture is with a win. Menard's first and only Monster Energy Series win came at Indy in 2011 He finished ninth here last year. The playoffs aren't completely out of the picture for Menard just yet.

Chris Buescher 20th in standings

Where he stands ... Buescher also is in a must-win situation. Heading to Indy this weekend, Buescher has three career starts and performed well in those, finishing 14th as a rookie in 2016 and ninth in 2017. Buescher hasn't finished worse than 17th in the last eight races this season, so a Hail Mary win might not be totally out of the equation ... and what an underdog story that would be.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 21st in standings

Where he stands ... Roush Fenway Racing has never visited Victory Lane at Indianapolis, even with fielding multiple entries in every Brickyard 400 race. As for Stenhouse, his best result in this race was a 12th-place finish in 2016.

Matt DiBendetto 22nd in standings

Where he stands ...
DiBenedetto has made four starts at Indianapolis, and the results have fluctuated quite a bit. The best is an eighth-place finish achieved in 2017, with two other finishes of 40th and 32nd. Last season, he finished 36th. We've seen a spark in the driver of the No. 95 lately.

Austin Dillon 23rd in standings

Where he stands ... This is a much different playoff scenario for Dillon, who notched Cup Series wins in both 2017 and 2018. This season, Dillon has struggled, and so have his recent performances at Indy.

Ty Dillon 24th in standings

Where he stands ... Dillon only has two Monster Energy Series starts at Indianapolis with 19th- and 21st-place finishes, but has an Xfinity Series win to his credit.

Daniel Hemric25th in standings

Where he stands ... Sunoco Rookie of the Year contender Hemric will make his Monster Energy Series debut at Indy this weekend.

Ryan Preece 26th in standings

Where he stands ... Preece will also make his Monster Energy Series debut at Indy. A win is the only way for him to be playoff-bound.

Bubba Wallace27th in standings

Where he stands ... Wallace has not had the season he hoped, but did achieve his season-best finish at Bristol Motor Speedway a few weeks ago (14th). We've seen Wallace be aggressive before, and if he were in position to contend, you can expect that aggression to come out even more.

Michael McDowell 28th in standings

Where he stands ... McDowell will head to Indy for the ninth time in his Monster Energy Series career. His results have gotten better each season, finishing with a career-best 17th place in 2018.

Corey LaJoie 29th in standings

Where he stands ... LaJoie will make his third start at Indy. In 2017, he failed to finish the race after being involved in an early wreck. Last year, he finished 27th.

David Ragan30th in standings

Where he stands ... Ragan, who announced his retirement from full-time racing earlier this season, will make his 13th start at the Brickyard.