Playoff seeding deep dive: Will historical trends repeat in 2025?
1 of 8
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs are upon us, starting Sunday at historic Darlington Raceway (6 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
Before the green flag drops on the 10-race stint to decide a champion, take a look back at how certain seedings led to certain outcomes under the current playoff format from 2017 to now, with data provided by Racing Insights.
2 of 8
Samuel Corum | Getty Images
Historical trend: A driver seeded seventh or better has never been eliminated in Round 1.
Present day: That's excellent news for Chase Elliott (No. 7), who's had some first-round struggles recently, finishing 20th or worse in the opening race of the playoffs in three of the last five years.
3 of 8
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
Historical trend: Only four times has a driver seeded better than sixth been eliminated in Round 2: Kyle Larson in 2022 from fourth and 2017 from second, Brad Keselowski from fourth in 2018 and Kyle Busch from fifth in 2023.
Present day: History suggests Christopher Bell (No. 5) and Shane van Gisbergen (No. 6) could cruise to at least the Round of 8, though Larson's past struggles show even top seeds aren't immune to early exits.
4 of 8
Logan Riely | Getty Images
Historical trend: Twenty-one of the 32 drivers (66%) to make it to the Championship 4 were seeded in the top four entering the first race of the playoffs.
Present day: That favors the quartet of Larson (No. 1), William Byron (No. 2), Denny Hamlin (No. 3) and Blaney (No. 4), which feels like a very possible 2025 Championship 4 lineup.
5 of 8
David Jensen | Getty Images
Historical trend: The deepest-seeded driver to make it to the Championship 4 was Ryan Blaney in 12th in 2023.
Present day: That precedent may comfort those on the bottlom half of the grid such as No. 11 Ross Chastain, who proved in 2022 that dark horses can make the Championship 4, too.
6 of 8
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
Historical trend: Six of the eight drivers seeded No. 1 raced for a championship (all but Kevin Harvick in 2020 and Kyle Larson in 2024).
Present day: That's good news for the top-seeded Larson ... although, as we pointed out, just last season he became the second top-seeded driver not to qualify for the title race.
7 of 8
James Gilbert | Getty Images
Historical trend: The deepest-seeded driver to win the championship was, you guessed it, Blaney from No. 12 overall in 2023.
Present day: That gives hope to the bottom half of the field, especially Team Penske teammate Joey Logano (No. 12), who will have to do it from as far back as he's ever done after winning championships as the No. 6 seed in 2018, No. 2 seed in 2022 and No. 9 seed last year.
8 of 8
Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images
Historical trend: The last two champions were seeded ninth or worse to start the playoffs: Blaney was 12th in 2023, Logano was ninth in 2024.
Present day: If this carries over to Year 3, that's good news for drivers such as Tyler Reddick (No. 14), 23XI Racing teammate Bubba Wallace (No. 9) ... or even Logano again (No. 12).