Playoff Watch 2018: Post-Daytona

From now until the regular-season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 9, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Monday as if the postseason started today. Here's the picture through 18 regular-season races (out of 26) following Erik Jones' win at Daytona.

A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins, which is added on to their total of 2,000.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending one point for the 10th-place finisher.

Missing the cut

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is among five 2017 playoff drivers not currently in the 2018 field. Fellow 2017 playoff drivers Jamie McMurray, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth also are below the cut line. Stenhouse Jr. banked two stage wins at Daytona and cut Alex Bowman's lead for the final spot to just 19 points.

16. Alex Bowman, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowman ran up front at Daytona -- typical for Hendrick Motorsports -- and finished 10th, but Erik Jones winning is a blow to the driver of the No. 88.

15. Jimmie Johnson, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Jimmie Johnson seemed to escape trouble in bunches at Daytona, but ended up out early via accident as opposed to competing for the win.

14. Chase Elliott, 2,000 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: A start from the Busch Pole and a finish of 34th is brutal, but that's Daytona. Still, the No. 9 team needs a turnaround after two consecutive rough weekends.

13. Aric Almirola, 2,002 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1
Note: Almirola's jump to 10th place in the regular-season standings would give him an extra playoff point if the postseason started today.

12. Kyle Larson, 2,003 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1 (does not count as a bonus point due to post-race inspection)
Note: We're not quite to the point of wondering if Kyle Larson is in playoff jeopardy, but a few more first-time winners in 2018 would get us there.

11. Ryan Blaney, 2,004 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: Blaney's four stage wins help separate him from the other drivers this year with no wins.

10. Denny Hamlin, 2,004 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: Hamlin is seeded ahead of Ryan Blaney in the postseason field by virtue of the best finisher tiebreaker. Both drivers have a third-place result this year; Hamlin's second-best is another third-place finish while Blaney's is fifth.

9. Austin Dillon, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Dillon couldn't complete the Daytona sweep, but a ninth-place finish was just his second top 10 since the season-opening race.

8. Erik Jones, 2,005 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Daytona-2)
Stage wins: 0
Note: What does a win mean? Well, Jones jumped from being seeded 15th in the playoff field to eighth after his stirring win at Daytona.

7. Kurt Busch, 2,006 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: One of the sport's top restrictor-plate racers, Busch was among the many drivers displeased with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. after Saturday night's race.

6. Brad Keselowski, 2,010 points

Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 4
Note: No playoff danger yet for the Team Penske driver, but of all the veterans yet to win this season, BK may be the most perplexing.

5. Joey Logano, 2,014 points

Qualified via: 1 win (Talladega-1)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Joey Logano continues to lose ground to Martin Truex Jr. in the regular-season standings, which impacts his deficit here, too.

4. Clint Bowyer, 2,015 points

Qualified via: 2 wins (Martinsville-1, Michigan-1)
Stage wins: 0
Note: Count Bowyer among the frustrated drivers leaving Daytona -- but hey, that's part of plate racing.

3. Martin Truex Jr., 2,026 points

Qualified via: 3 wins (Auto Club, Pocono-1, Sonoma)
Stage wins: 3
Note: Truex Jr. was legitimately happy for Erik Jones after the young gun's win. The reigning champ finished second, though, agonizingly close to closing the gap on Kevin Harvick.

2. Kevin Harvick, 2,037 points

Qualified via: 5 wins* (Atlanta, Las Vegas-1, Phoenix-1, Dover-1, Kansas-1)*
Stage wins: 9*
Note: Harvick should bounce back quickly from Daytona, especially with 1.5-mile Kentucky looming. More playoff points appear likely. (Note: Two stage wins and one victory will not count toward Harvick's playoff points)

1. Kyle Busch, 2,045 points

Qualified via: 5 wins (Texas-1, Bristol-1, Richmond-1, Charlotte, Chicagoland)
Stage wins: 5
Note: No change at the top yet again as Kyle Busch has been the top seed in this exercise for the past two months.