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Playoff Watch 2019: Analyzing postseason picture post-Sonoma
By Brad Norman | Published: June 24, 2019 18
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
From now until the regular-season finale at Indianapolis on Sept. 8, NASCAR.com will analyze the playoff picture on Monday. Here's how the postseason looks through 16 regular-season races (out of 26) following Martin Truex Jr.'s win at Sonoma.
A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending one point for the 10th-place finisher.
A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn 5 playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn 1 playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending one point for the 10th-place finisher.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
Missing the cut
The race for the final few playoff spots is one to watch for the remaining 10 races. Jimmie Johnson misses the cut this week -- he's one point behind Ryan Newman in the cutoff position. Erik Jones also is on the outside looking in.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
16. Ryan Newman, 2,000 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Consistency has carried Newman through the first 16 races. His seventh-place finish at Sonoma is tied for his best showing all season, and boosted him over Jimmie Johnson in the standings.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
15. Aric Almirola, 2,000 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: A ninth-place run at Sonoma keeps Almirola firmly in the playoff field.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
14. Daniel Suarez, 2,000 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Suarez has teammate Clint Bowyer in his sights in the regular-season standings, sitting just nine points behind him.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
13. Clint Bowyer, 2,000 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Make it three consecutive Stewart-Haas Racing drivers in this week's playoff seeding. Like the previous two, Bowyer has shown flashes of speed but has not consistently battled for wins this year.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
12. William Byron, 2,001 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 1
Note: Byron's first stage win of the season at Sonoma is good for one playoff point, which vaults him three spots in the playoff standings.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
11. Alex Bowman, 2,001 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Bowman currently sits 10th in the regular-season standings -- he's tied with Aric Almirola, technically -- which nets him one playoff point for the postseason.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
10. Kyle Larson, 2,003 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 3
Note: Larson makes the biggest jump in the standings (15th in the regular season to 10th in the playoff field) thanks to his three stage wins.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
9. Kurt Busch, 2,003 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 0
Note: Kurt Busch coming in ninth means both Chip Ganassi Racing drivers start the playoffs seeded in the top 10.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
8. Ryan Blaney, 2,004 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 2
Note: The lone Team Penske driver without a win, a trip to Victory Lane for the speedy Blaney would provide a much-needed cushion on the rest of the field.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
7. Kevin Harvick, 2,011 points
Qualified via: Points
Stage wins: 3
Note: Harvick is third in the regular-season points standings, but seventh in the playoff grid. That illustrates how valuable winning is, and Harvick has yet to win this year.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
6. Chase Elliott, 2,011 points
Qualified via: 1 win (Talladega)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Watch the battle between Elliott and Denny Hamlin the rest of the way. They've been close in points all year, and every position matters in the standings due to the playoff points that come with finishing well.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
5. Denny Hamlin, 2,017 points
Qualified via: 2 wins (Daytona 500, Texas)
Stage wins: 2
Note: Hamlin has been locked into the postseason since February after winning the Daytona 500. Now it's just a matter of padding his playoff points.
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Chris Graythen | Getty Images
4. Brad Keselowski, 2,026 points
Qualified via: 3 wins (Atlanta, Martinsville, Kansas)
Stage wins: 4
Note: Keselowski slipped behind Martin Truex Jr. after Sonoma, but he's within striking distance of the top seed.
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Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
3. Martin Truex Jr., 2,028 points
Qualified via: 4 wins (Richmond, Dover, Coca-Cola 600, Sonoma)
Stage wins: 2
Note: One of two drivers with four wins, Truex Jr. jumps into the top three after his Sonoma victory.
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Logan Riely | Getty Images
2. Joey Logano, 2,031 points
Qualified via: 2 wins (Las Vegas, Michigan)
Stage wins: 6
Note: Logano would be the Regular Season Champion if the season ended today, and that carries with it a massive 15 playoff points. However, Kyle Busch is coming fast in his rearview.
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Daniel Shirey | Getty Images
1. Kyle Busch, 2,035 points
Qualified via: 4 wins (ISM Raceway at Phoenix, Auto Club, Bristol-1, Pocono-1)
Stage wins: 5
Note: Busch is just one point behind Joey Logano for the regular-season standings points lead. It's a 10-point playoff swing between first and second place, so if Busch wrests the lead away from Logano, he's the clear favorite to be the top seed in the playoffs come September.