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AVONDALE, ARIZONA - NOVEMBER 08: A view of the Bill France trophy following the NASCAR Cup Series Season Finale 500 and the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway on November 08, 2020 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
BACK TO GALLERIES

NASCAR Playoff Watch 2021: How the postseason picture looks

By Staff Report | Published: August 23, 2021 18
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
BACK TO GALLERIES

1 of 18

AVONDALE, ARIZONA - NOVEMBER 08: A view of the Bill France trophy following the NASCAR Cup Series Season Finale 500 and the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway on November 08, 2020 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images

Throughout the regular season, NASCAR.com will examine the playoff picture. Here's how the postseason picture looks through 25 regular-season races (out of 26) after the Cup Series race at Michigan International Speedway.

A few reminders:

-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.

-- Drivers earn five playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.

-- Drivers earn one playoff point for each stage win.

-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending on one point for the 10th-place finisher.

2 of 18

HAMPTON, GEORGIA - MARCH 21: Austin Dillon, driver of the #3 Bass Pro Shops/Tracker Off Road Chevrolet, waits on the grid prior to the NASCAR Cup Series Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on March 21, 2021 in Hampton, Georgia. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Sean Gardner | Getty Images

*Note that the cutline sits at 11th place in the regular-season standings since that is the lowest non-winner in the provisional playoff field.

On the outside looking in:
Austin Dillon (13th in the regular-season standings, minus-25 points to 12th)

No winless driver behind Dillon in the regular-season standings can point their way into the field.

3 of 18

HAMPTON, GEORGIA - MARCH 21: Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Hunt Brothers Pizza Ford, walks the grid prior to  the NASCAR Cup Series Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on March 21, 2021 in Hampton, Georgia. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Sean Gardner | Getty Images

16. Kevin Harvick: 2,002 points
Qualified by: Points
 (spot clinched)
Stage wins: 0

Quick hit: Harvick clinched a playoff berth with his 14th-place run at Michigan. His 104-point buffer on the cutline cannot be caught at Daytona, therefore he is locked in. This marks Harvick's eighth playoff appearance since the current format was installed in 2014.

4 of 18

AUSTIN, TEXAS - MAY 23: Tyler Reddick, driver of the #8 Cheddar's Chevrolet, and team owner, Richard Childress talk on the grid prior to the NASCAR Cup Series EchoPark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of The Americas on May 23, 2021 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Chris Graythen | Getty Images

15. Tyler Reddick: 2,003 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Reddick didn't have the best points day at Michigan, snagging just three stage points in Stage 2. He then finished 29th, resulting in just 11 points overall. His advantage on teammate Austin Dillon went from 28 to 25 points. Reddick can clinch a spot at Daytona if he scores 31 points.

5 of 18

LOUDON, NEW HAMPSHIRE - JULY 18: Aric Almirola, driver of the #10 Smithfield Ford, celebrates in victory lane after winning the NASCAR Cup Series Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on July 18, 2021 in Loudon, New Hampshire. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images) | Getty Images

James Gilbert | Getty Images

14. Aric Almirola: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (New Hampshire)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Almirola is bound for his fourth straight postseason trip despite sitting 23rd in the regular-season point standings. His win at New Hampshire punched his ticket, because a 17th-place result and 20-point day at Michigan surely wouldn't have helped his stance.

6 of 18

DAYTONA BEACH, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 14: Michael McDowell, driver of the #34 Love's Travel Stops Ford, celebrates in victory lane after winning the NASCAR Cup Series 63rd Annual Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 14, 2021 in Daytona Beach, Florida. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Chris Graythen | Getty Images

13. Michael McDowell: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: McDowell returns to the site of his sole win of 2021 on Saturday -- Daytona. That may provide a confidence boost heading into the postseason. McDowell's 20th-place result at Michigan just added to his six-race streak of finishes 20th or worse.

7 of 18

DAYTONA BEACH, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 21: Christopher Bell, driver of the #20 Rheem Toyota, celebrates with the checkered flag after winning the NASCAR Cup Series O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 at Daytona International Speedway on February 21, 2021 in Daytona Beach, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images) | Getty Images

James Gilbert | Getty Images

12. Christopher Bell: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (Daytona Road Course)

Stage wins: 0

Quick hit: Bell finished 13th at Michigan. He also returns to the site of his first career win -- Daytona -- but this time, the series will be racing on the classic oval rather than the road course, which he won on. Still, Bell finished 16th in the Daytona 500.

8 of 18

Sean Gardner | Getty Images

Sean Gardner | Getty Images

11. Kurt Busch: 2,008 points
Qualified by: Win (Atlanta-2)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Busch notched his second consecutive top-10 finish at Michigan and his first top-five result since his win at Atlanta. He also finished within the top 10 in Stage 1, but eighth in a stage doesn't earn a driver any playoff points.

9 of 18

TALLADEGA, ALABAMA - APRIL 25: Brad Keselowski, driver of the #2 MoneyLion Ford, celebrates in victory lane after winning the NASCAR Cup Series  GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on April 25, 2021 in Talladega, Alabama. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Sean Gardner | Getty Images

10. Brad Keselowski: 2,008 points
Qualified by: Win (Talladega)

Stage wins: 2

Quick hit: Keselowski's goal of winning at Michigan has to wait yet another year. He finished ninth after a brush-up with Austin Dillon that sidelined the playoff hopeful. Keselowski was 10th and seventh in the two stages.

10 of 18

BRISTOL, TENNESSEE - MARCH 29: Joey Logano, driver of the #22 Shell Pennzoil Ford, celebrates in victory lane after winning the NASCAR Cup Series Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 29, 2021 in Bristol, Tennessee. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Chris Graythen | Getty Images

9. Joey Logano: 2,012 points
Qualified by: Win (Bristol dirt)

Stage wins: 4
Quick hit: Because teammate Ryan Blaney won at Michigan, Logano loses a spot in the provisional playoff field, going from eighth to ninth as Blaney moves up from ninth to fifth. Logano finished 33rd at Michigan -- his third consecutive finish outside the top 20, his second outside the top 30.

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HAMPTON, GEORGIA - MARCH 21: Denny Hamlin, driver of the #11 FedEx Express Toyota, walks the grid prior to the NASCAR Cup Series Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on March 21, 2021 in Hampton, Georgia. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Sean Gardner | Getty Images

8. Denny Hamlin: 2,015 points
Qualified by: Points (spot clinched)
Stage wins: 5
Quick hit: Hamlin placed fourth and fifth in Stages 1 and 2, respectively, and then finished fifth overall at Michigan. That led to a 45-point day, which is normally good, but Kyle Larson had a 51-point day. Hamlin has one more race to steal the regular-season title back from Larson, though Hamlin is 28 points down.

12 of 18

HOMESTEAD, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 28: William Byron, driver of the #24 Axalta Chevrolet, celebrates in victory lane after winning the NASCAR Cup Series Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on February 28, 2021 in Homestead, Florida. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Sean Gardner | Getty Images

7. William Byron: 2,015 points
Qualified by: Win (Miami)

Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Byron finished second at Michigan, also placing fifth and ninth in the stages. He had a 43-point day, which puts him just five points behind Kyle Busch in the regular-season point standings.

13 of 18

DOVER, DELAWARE - MAY 16: Alex Bowman, driver of the #48 Ally Chevrolet, celebrates his win during the NASCAR Cup Series Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway on May 16, 2021 in Dover, Delaware. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Sean Gardner | Getty Images

6. Alex Bowman: 2,015 points
Qualified by: Wins (Richmond, Dover and Pocono)

Stage wins: 0

Quick hit: Bowman placed 16th at Michigan and gained no stage points. The result was his third finish in a row outside the top 15.

14 of 18

HAMPTON, GEORGIA - MARCH 21: Ryan Blaney, driver of the #12 BodyArmor Ford, points to a young NASCAR fan to receive the Sunoco flag after winning the NASCAR Cup Series Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on March 21, 2021 in Hampton, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Kevin C. Cox | Getty Images

5. Ryan Blaney: 2,018 points
Qualified by: Wins (Atlanta, Michigan)

Stage wins: 4

Quick hit: Blaney doubled down on the wins Sunday, taking his second checkered flag of 2021 at Michigan. That moves him from ninth in the provisional playoff field to fifth. The added bonus points could very well keep his title chances alive longer in the postseason.

15 of 18

AUSTIN, TEXAS - MAY 23: Chase Elliott, driver of the #9 Llumar Chevrolet, celebrates in victory lane after winning the NASCAR Cup Series EchoPark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of The Americas on May 23, 2021 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Chris Graythen | Getty Images

4. Chase Elliott: 2,018 points
Qualified by: Wins (Circuit of The Americas, Road America)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: Elliott won Stage 1 at Michigan to nab a playoff point despite finishing eighth overall. He was fourth in Stage 2. Overall, he had a 46-point day.

16 of 18

KANSAS CITY, KANSAS - MAY 02: Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 M&M's Mix Toyota, gives a thumbs up after winning the NASCAR Cup Series Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas Speedway on May 02, 2021 in Kansas City, Kansas. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images) | Getty Images

James Gilbert | Getty Images

3. Kyle Busch: 2,023 points
Qualified by: Wins (Kansas and Pocono-2)
Stage wins: 5

Quick hit: Busch won Stage 2 at Michigan, adding a playoff point to his total. He was ninth in Stage 1 and seventh at the checkered flag. That left him with a 42-point day overall.

17 of 18

AVONDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 14: Martin Truex Jr., driver of the #19 Bass Pro Toyota, celebrates in victory lane after winning the NASCAR Cup Series Instacart 500 at Phoenix Raceway on March 14, 2021 in Avondale, Arizona. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Sean Gardner | Getty Images

2. Martin Truex Jr.: 2,025 points
Qualified by: Wins (Phoenix, Martinsville and Darlington)

Stage wins: 5
Quick hit: Ryan Blaney is right on Truex's tail in the regular-season point standings. Truex has just two points on Blaney for sixth. While Blaney won at Michigan, Truex finished 10th.

18 of 18

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - MARCH 07: Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, celebrates with the checkered flag after winning the NASCAR Cup Series Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 07, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images

1. Kyle Larson: 2,052 points
Qualified by: Wins (Las Vegas, Charlotte, Sonoma, Nashville and Watkins Glen)/Projected regular-season champion
Stage wins: 12

Quick hit: Larson is atop the regular-season standings with a 28-point advantage on Denny Hamlin. If Larson keeps that top spot comes checkered flag Saturday, he would score the additional 15 playoff points that come with that position. He essentially would carry a full race more of points into the Round of 16 (and 12 and 8 should he advance) than the back half of the playoff field.
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