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NASCAR Playoff Watch 2021: How the postseason picture looks
By RJ Kraft | Monday, June 14, 2021
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Throughout the regular season, NASCAR.com will examine the playoff picture. Here's how the postseason picture looks through 16 regular-season races (out of 26) after the race at Sonoma Raceway.
A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn five playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn one playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending on one point for the 10th-place finisher.
A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn five playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn one playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending on one point for the 10th-place finisher.
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*Note that the cutline sits at 14th place in the standings since that is the lowest non-winner in the provisional playoff field.
On the outside looking in:
Matt DiBenedetto (17th in the standings, -60 points to 14th)
Kurt Busch (18th in the standings, -63 points to 14th)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (19th in the standings, -82 points to 14th)
Ross Chastain (20th in the standings, -84 points to 14th)
Bubba Wallace (21st in the standings, -93 points to 14th)
Daniel Suarez (22nd in the standings, -98 points to 14th)
On the outside looking in:
Matt DiBenedetto (17th in the standings, -60 points to 14th)
Kurt Busch (18th in the standings, -63 points to 14th)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (19th in the standings, -82 points to 14th)
Ross Chastain (20th in the standings, -84 points to 14th)
Bubba Wallace (21st in the standings, -93 points to 14th)
Daniel Suarez (22nd in the standings, -98 points to 14th)
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16. Austin Dillon: 2,000 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: If Dillon's performances at Circuit of The Americas and Sonoma are any indication, he won't lose his grip on a playoff spot during a summer full of road courses. The Richard Childress Racing driver has done better on that track type recently but has no top 10s on road courses for his Cup career.
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: If Dillon's performances at Circuit of The Americas and Sonoma are any indication, he won't lose his grip on a playoff spot during a summer full of road courses. The Richard Childress Racing driver has done better on that track type recently but has no top 10s on road courses for his Cup career.
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15. Tyler Reddick: 2,000 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Reddick has surged up 15 spots in the point standings over the last 10 races with seven top 10s in that stretch. Looking ahead, he must avoid a repeat of last year's rough Pocono double dip (30th- and 35th-place finishes).
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Reddick has surged up 15 spots in the point standings over the last 10 races with seven top 10s in that stretch. Looking ahead, he must avoid a repeat of last year's rough Pocono double dip (30th- and 35th-place finishes).
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14. Chris Buescher: 2,001 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Buescher would be the last driver in the playoff field, but he is only seven points behind Reddick. The Roush Fenway Racing driver continues to knock out top-15 finishes with few missteps.
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Buescher would be the last driver in the playoff field, but he is only seven points behind Reddick. The Roush Fenway Racing driver continues to knock out top-15 finishes with few missteps.
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13. Kevin Harvick: 2,002 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: His 39 laps led are a far cry from what we are used to and the lack of stage wins is cause for concern. Still, the 2014 champ continues to grind out finishes, while his three Stewart-Haas Racing teammates are mired in the bottom third of the standings. Nashville and New Hampshire stand out as big opportunities for the veteran.
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: His 39 laps led are a far cry from what we are used to and the lack of stage wins is cause for concern. Still, the 2014 champ continues to grind out finishes, while his three Stewart-Haas Racing teammates are mired in the bottom third of the standings. Nashville and New Hampshire stand out as big opportunities for the veteran.
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12. Christopher Bell: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (Daytona Road Course)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: It's a good thing Bell has that early-season win or he'd be squarely on the bubble. He has been in spring swoon with five finishes outside the top 20 in his last six races. He hasn't raced at Nashville, but he did nab a top-five finish at Pocono last year.
Qualified by: Win (Daytona Road Course)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: It's a good thing Bell has that early-season win or he'd be squarely on the bubble. He has been in spring swoon with five finishes outside the top 20 in his last six races. He hasn't raced at Nashville, but he did nab a top-five finish at Pocono last year.
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11. Michael McDowell: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: The Daytona 500 winner remains the surprise of the playoff picture to date. He has cooled off a bit since a trio of top 10s to open the year. The veteran's biggest opportunities on the schedule are the three remaining regular-season road courses (he has top 10s in two of the three so far and without a late dump, would have had one at Sonoma, too) and the return to Daytona in August.
Qualified by: Win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: The Daytona 500 winner remains the surprise of the playoff picture to date. He has cooled off a bit since a trio of top 10s to open the year. The veteran's biggest opportunities on the schedule are the three remaining regular-season road courses (he has top 10s in two of the three so far and without a late dump, would have had one at Sonoma, too) and the return to Daytona in August.
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10. Brad Keselowski: 2,007 points
Qualified by: Win (Talladega)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Maybe it's the silly season rumors or something else, but the finishes haven't been there for Keselowski over the last month with an average finish of 17.0 and no top 10s in the last five races. Nashville and Pocono represent good spots for a turnaround as he has two Xfinity wins at the Tennessee track and a slew of solid performances of late at the "Tricky Triangle."
Qualified by: Win (Talladega)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Maybe it's the silly season rumors or something else, but the finishes haven't been there for Keselowski over the last month with an average finish of 17.0 and no top 10s in the last five races. Nashville and Pocono represent good spots for a turnaround as he has two Xfinity wins at the Tennessee track and a slew of solid performances of late at the "Tricky Triangle."
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9. Alex Bowman: 2,010 points
Qualified by: Wins (Richmond and Dover)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Bowman has been on a roll of late much as Hendrick has. He has a win, two top fives and four top 10s in his last four races. And given how well he and Hendrick are running, it would be a surprise if he doesn't climb into the top 10 in the points standings.
Qualified by: Wins (Richmond and Dover)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Bowman has been on a roll of late much as Hendrick has. He has a win, two top fives and four top 10s in his last four races. And given how well he and Hendrick are running, it would be a surprise if he doesn't climb into the top 10 in the points standings.
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8. Ryan Blaney: 2,011 points
Qualified by: Win (Atlanta)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Blaney has been on a cold spell when it comes to top-five finishes -- he has not scored one in 10 races since his Atlanta win. He picks up three extra projected playoff points for sitting eighth in the point standings.
Qualified by: Win (Atlanta)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Blaney has been on a cold spell when it comes to top-five finishes -- he has not scored one in 10 races since his Atlanta win. He picks up three extra projected playoff points for sitting eighth in the point standings.
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7. Kyle Busch: 2,011 points
Qualified by: Win (Kansas)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: The 18 team has had its swagger back for the last month-plus thanks to a win at Kansas but also four top fives in six races. Busch keeps picking off projected playoff points by moving up the point standings (he's gained three spots in three weeks) and he's only seven points back of Martin Truex Jr.
Qualified by: Win (Kansas)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: The 18 team has had its swagger back for the last month-plus thanks to a win at Kansas but also four top fives in six races. Busch keeps picking off projected playoff points by moving up the point standings (he's gained three spots in three weeks) and he's only seven points back of Martin Truex Jr.
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6. William Byron: 2,013 points
Qualified by: Win (Miami)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Byron's cooled off a bit since a run of 11 straight top 10s. His total gets a boost from sitting fourth in the point standings -- which gets him seven projected playoff points. Still for as hot as he was weeks ago, this position feels low.
Qualified by: Win (Miami)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Byron's cooled off a bit since a run of 11 straight top 10s. His total gets a boost from sitting fourth in the point standings -- which gets him seven projected playoff points. Still for as hot as he was weeks ago, this position feels low.
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5. Joey Logano: 2,014 points
Qualified by: Win (Bristol dirt)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Logano has nabbed top-five finishes on the three road courses and there's three more left in the regular season. If Logano is going to stack up more playoff points, its going to come on tracks where the 750-package is in play. Eight of his nine top 10s and all his top fives have come in races with that rules package.
Qualified by: Win (Bristol dirt)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Logano has nabbed top-five finishes on the three road courses and there's three more left in the regular season. If Logano is going to stack up more playoff points, its going to come on tracks where the 750-package is in play. Eight of his nine top 10s and all his top fives have come in races with that rules package.
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4. Chase Elliott: 2,014 points
Qualified by: Win (Circuit of The Americas)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: With a win, two runner-up finishes and five top-five finishes in his last six races, it's safe to say the defending series champ is rounding into form. The remaining three road courses are his biggest regular-season opportunity, but he's a threat to win nearly everywhere the series goes.
Qualified by: Win (Circuit of The Americas)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: With a win, two runner-up finishes and five top-five finishes in his last six races, it's safe to say the defending series champ is rounding into form. The remaining three road courses are his biggest regular-season opportunity, but he's a threat to win nearly everywhere the series goes.
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3. Denny Hamlin: 2,020 points
Qualified by: Points/Projected regular-season champion
Stage wins: 5
Quick hit: Hamlin serves as the projected regular-season champion, so that adds 15 playoff points to his total. But his hold on that spot is not as strong as it once was with Kyle Larson (-47) closing in. The 11 team has cooled off a little, but it would be surprising if this team was still winless after Pocono.
Qualified by: Points/Projected regular-season champion
Stage wins: 5
Quick hit: Hamlin serves as the projected regular-season champion, so that adds 15 playoff points to his total. But his hold on that spot is not as strong as it once was with Kyle Larson (-47) closing in. The 11 team has cooled off a little, but it would be surprising if this team was still winless after Pocono.
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2. Martin Truex Jr.: 2,023 points
Qualified by: Wins (Phoenix, Martinsville and Darlington)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: The Truex team's priority on nailing the 750-package shows in its results with three wins on tracks where it was used -- coincidentally all playoff tracks as well. Racking up more playoff points -- something Truex didn't have a bundle of in 2020 -- needs to be a summer priority. The races at the three road courses and New Hampshire should help in that effort.
Qualified by: Wins (Phoenix, Martinsville and Darlington)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: The Truex team's priority on nailing the 750-package shows in its results with three wins on tracks where it was used -- coincidentally all playoff tracks as well. Racking up more playoff points -- something Truex didn't have a bundle of in 2020 -- needs to be a summer priority. The races at the three road courses and New Hampshire should help in that effort.
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1. Kyle Larson: 2,036 points
Qualified by: Wins (Las Vegas, Charlotte and Sonoma)
Stage wins: 11
Quick hit: Larson has snatched all 15 playoff points the last two races. Look, we already knew he was the class of the field on 1.5-milers -- much like Truex was in 2017. With five straight top-two finishes, it's hard to see a weakness right now.
Qualified by: Wins (Las Vegas, Charlotte and Sonoma)
Stage wins: 11
Quick hit: Larson has snatched all 15 playoff points the last two races. Look, we already knew he was the class of the field on 1.5-milers -- much like Truex was in 2017. With five straight top-two finishes, it's hard to see a weakness right now.
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