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NASCAR Playoff Watch 2021: How the postseason picture looks
By RJ Kraft | Monday, August 2, 2021
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Throughout the regular season, NASCAR.com will examine the playoff picture. Here's how the postseason picture looks through 22 regular-season races (out of 26) after the Cup Series race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn five playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn one playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending on one point for the 10th-place finisher.
A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn five playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn one playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending on one point for the 10th-place finisher.
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*Note that the cutline sits at 12th place in the regular-season standings since that is the lowest non-winner in the provisional playoff field.
On the outside looking in:
Austin Dillon (13th in the regular-season standings, -5 points to 12th)
Chris Buescher (16th in the regular-season standings, -121 points to 12th)
Matt DiBenedetto (17th in the regular-season standings, -143 points to 12th)
Ross Chastain (18th in the regular-season standings, -144 points to 12th)
Bubba Wallace (20th in the regular-season standings, -170 points to 12th)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (21st in the regular-season standings, -172 points to 12th)
On the outside looking in:
Austin Dillon (13th in the regular-season standings, -5 points to 12th)
Chris Buescher (16th in the regular-season standings, -121 points to 12th)
Matt DiBenedetto (17th in the regular-season standings, -143 points to 12th)
Ross Chastain (18th in the regular-season standings, -144 points to 12th)
Bubba Wallace (20th in the regular-season standings, -170 points to 12th)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (21st in the regular-season standings, -172 points to 12th)
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16. Tyler Reddick: 2,001 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: How quickly a wild-card winner changes things. Reddick was +96 on the cutline coming into New Hampshire and now he sits +5 on his RCR teammate Austin Dillon. This should be a battle to the finish and oh, yeah, the regular-season finale at Daytona could produce another wild-card winner and leave them both on the outside looking in.
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: How quickly a wild-card winner changes things. Reddick was +96 on the cutline coming into New Hampshire and now he sits +5 on his RCR teammate Austin Dillon. This should be a battle to the finish and oh, yeah, the regular-season finale at Daytona could produce another wild-card winner and leave them both on the outside looking in.
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15. Kevin Harvick: 2,001 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Harvick's New Hampshire run was a nice reminder that this team is very much a threat on the 750-horsepower tracks. However, the playoffs are far from secure for the 2014 champion, who remains winless and just +82 on the cutline with four races left in the regular season.
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Harvick's New Hampshire run was a nice reminder that this team is very much a threat on the 750-horsepower tracks. However, the playoffs are far from secure for the 2014 champion, who remains winless and just +82 on the cutline with four races left in the regular season.
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14. Aric Almirola: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (New Hampshire)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Almirola's season to forget turned on a dime with his victory at New Hampshire, and this will be his fourth straight postseason trip. Winning was essentially his only path to the postseason after digging himself a huge hole in the standings.
Qualified by: Win (New Hampshire)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Almirola's season to forget turned on a dime with his victory at New Hampshire, and this will be his fourth straight postseason trip. Winning was essentially his only path to the postseason after digging himself a huge hole in the standings.
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13. Michael McDowell: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: The Daytona 500 winner may not be the biggest surprise of the playoff picture after Almirola's win. The break comes at a good time for him as he has three straight finishes of 25th or worse. The veteran's biggest opportunities on the schedule are the two remaining regular-season road courses and the return to Daytona in August.
Qualified by: Win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: The Daytona 500 winner may not be the biggest surprise of the playoff picture after Almirola's win. The break comes at a good time for him as he has three straight finishes of 25th or worse. The veteran's biggest opportunities on the schedule are the two remaining regular-season road courses and the return to Daytona in August.
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12. Christopher Bell: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (Daytona Road Course)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Bell's first streak of three straight top 10s in the Cup Series -- including two runner-up finishes in that trio of results -- have served noticed that this team is rounding into form with the playoffs fast approaching. Dare we say, he's a sleeper for a deep run?
Qualified by: Win (Daytona Road Course)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Bell's first streak of three straight top 10s in the Cup Series -- including two runner-up finishes in that trio of results -- have served noticed that this team is rounding into form with the playoffs fast approaching. Dare we say, he's a sleeper for a deep run?
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11. Kurt Busch: 2,008 points
Qualified by: Win (Atlanta-2)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Busch's summer hot streak cooled off at New Hampshire, but the win at Atlanta leaves him resting easy. With two road courses coming up, it's important to note he has the fourth-most points on that track type this year.
Qualified by: Win (Atlanta-2)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Busch's summer hot streak cooled off at New Hampshire, but the win at Atlanta leaves him resting easy. With two road courses coming up, it's important to note he has the fourth-most points on that track type this year.
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10. Brad Keselowski: 2,009 points
Qualified by: Win (Talladega)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: Keselowski's third-place run at New Hampshire was a welcome sign from a team that had mastered the 750-track package last season. The stage win and jump over Harvick in the regular-season standings added two points to his projected total.
Qualified by: Win (Talladega)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: Keselowski's third-place run at New Hampshire was a welcome sign from a team that had mastered the 750-track package last season. The stage win and jump over Harvick in the regular-season standings added two points to his projected total.
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9. Ryan Blaney: 2,012 points
Qualified by: Win (Atlanta)
Stage wins: 4
Quick hit: Blaney now has three top fives and four top-six finishes in his last five races. A stage win at New Hampshire adds to his playoff point total and he is just seven points back of Martin Truex Jr. for seventh in the regular-season standings and another projected playoff point.
Qualified by: Win (Atlanta)
Stage wins: 4
Quick hit: Blaney now has three top fives and four top-six finishes in his last five races. A stage win at New Hampshire adds to his playoff point total and he is just seven points back of Martin Truex Jr. for seventh in the regular-season standings and another projected playoff point.
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8. Joey Logano: 2,014 points
Qualified by: Win (Bristol dirt)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Logano's workmanlike effort from a penalty that left him two laps down to nab a top-five finish was a forceful reminder of how good the No. 22 team is with the 750-track package. He could grab several more projected playoff points as he is just minus-16 points to third in the regular-season standings where he sits fifth.
Qualified by: Win (Bristol dirt)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Logano's workmanlike effort from a penalty that left him two laps down to nab a top-five finish was a forceful reminder of how good the No. 22 team is with the 750-track package. He could grab several more projected playoff points as he is just minus-16 points to third in the regular-season standings where he sits fifth.
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7. Alex Bowman: 2,015 points
Qualified by: Wins (Richmond, Dover and Pocono)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: With eight top-nine finishes in his last 10 races, Bowman has been one of the stronger drivers of late. A 25-point penalty after New Hampshire hurts his charge for a top-10 position in the regular-season standings.
Qualified by: Wins (Richmond, Dover and Pocono)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: With eight top-nine finishes in his last 10 races, Bowman has been one of the stronger drivers of late. A 25-point penalty after New Hampshire hurts his charge for a top-10 position in the regular-season standings.
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6. William Byron: 2,016 points
Qualified by: Win (Miami)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Despite his fourth straight finish outside the top 10, Byron gained a projected playoff point thanks to Kyle Busch's misfortune. However, he needs to right the ship as he could potentially lose up to three projected playoff points; he is only +16 on sixth place in the regular-season standings -- he currently sits third.
Qualified by: Win (Miami)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Despite his fourth straight finish outside the top 10, Byron gained a projected playoff point thanks to Kyle Busch's misfortune. However, he needs to right the ship as he could potentially lose up to three projected playoff points; he is only +16 on sixth place in the regular-season standings -- he currently sits third.
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5. Chase Elliott: 2,016 points
Qualified by: Wins (Circuit of The Americas, Road America)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: With two road courses coming up (and one where he has won the last two races -- Watkins Glen), Elliott has a prime opportunity to pad his projected playoff point total as he looks to defend his championship. A 25-point penalty out of New Hampshire hurt his chances to gain projected playoff points through the regular-season standings.
Qualified by: Wins (Circuit of The Americas, Road America)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: With two road courses coming up (and one where he has won the last two races -- Watkins Glen), Elliott has a prime opportunity to pad his projected playoff point total as he looks to defend his championship. A 25-point penalty out of New Hampshire hurt his chances to gain projected playoff points through the regular-season standings.
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4. Denny Hamlin: 2,020 points
Qualified by: Points/Projected regular-season champion
Stage wins: 5
Quick hit: Hamlin serves as the projected regular-season champion, so that adds 15 playoff points to his total. His hold on that spot is tenuous with Kyle Larson (-13 in the regular-season standings) on his heels and the potential loss of five projected playoff points. Two more repeat winners and Hamlin's playoff spot will be secure but until then it makes his hold on the regular-season title lead even more important since that driver is guaranteed playoff entry even if they are winless.
Qualified by: Points/Projected regular-season champion
Stage wins: 5
Quick hit: Hamlin serves as the projected regular-season champion, so that adds 15 playoff points to his total. His hold on that spot is tenuous with Kyle Larson (-13 in the regular-season standings) on his heels and the potential loss of five projected playoff points. Two more repeat winners and Hamlin's playoff spot will be secure but until then it makes his hold on the regular-season title lead even more important since that driver is guaranteed playoff entry even if they are winless.
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3. Kyle Busch: 2,021 points
Qualified by: Wins (Kansas and Pocono-2)
Stage wins: 4
Quick hit: A last-place finish was certainly not the result expected from the New Hampshire pole-sitter. The result only cost him one projected playoff point. Given his recent runs at road courses, it's not hard to imagine him getting that back and then some in the coming weeks.
Qualified by: Wins (Kansas and Pocono-2)
Stage wins: 4
Quick hit: A last-place finish was certainly not the result expected from the New Hampshire pole-sitter. The result only cost him one projected playoff point. Given his recent runs at road courses, it's not hard to imagine him getting that back and then some in the coming weeks.
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2. Martin Truex Jr.: 2,023 points
Qualified by: Wins (Phoenix, Martinsville and Darlington)
Stage wins: 4
Quick hit: The Truex team's priority on nailing the 750-horsepower package shows in its results with three wins on tracks where it was used -- coincidentally all playoff tracks as well. Racking up more playoff points -- something Truex didn't have a bundle of in 2020 -- remains a summer goal. The races at the two remaining road courses should continue to help that effort.
Qualified by: Wins (Phoenix, Martinsville and Darlington)
Stage wins: 4
Quick hit: The Truex team's priority on nailing the 750-horsepower package shows in its results with three wins on tracks where it was used -- coincidentally all playoff tracks as well. Racking up more playoff points -- something Truex didn't have a bundle of in 2020 -- remains a summer goal. The races at the two remaining road courses should continue to help that effort.
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1. Kyle Larson: 2,042 points
Qualified by: Wins (Las Vegas, Charlotte, Sonoma and Nashville)
Stage wins: 12
Quick hit: Larson remains within reach of the regular-season championship (-13 points to Denny Hamlin), which would only add to his playoff point basket. Michigan is his prime opportunity on the remaining regular-season schedule, but he should certainly be a factor on the road courses, too.
Qualified by: Wins (Las Vegas, Charlotte, Sonoma and Nashville)
Stage wins: 12
Quick hit: Larson remains within reach of the regular-season championship (-13 points to Denny Hamlin), which would only add to his playoff point basket. Michigan is his prime opportunity on the remaining regular-season schedule, but he should certainly be a factor on the road courses, too.
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