NASCAR Playoff Watch 2021: How the postseason picture looks

Throughout the regular season, NASCAR.com will examine the playoff picture. Here's how the postseason picture looks through 25 regular-season races (out of 26) after the Cup Series race at Michigan International Speedway.

A few reminders:

-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.

-- Drivers earn five playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.

-- Drivers earn one playoff point for each stage win.

-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending on one point for the 10th-place finisher.

*Note that the cutline sits at 11th place in the regular-season standings since that is the lowest non-winner in the provisional playoff field.

On the outside looking in:
Austin Dillon (13th in the regular-season standings, minus-25 points to 12th)

No winless driver behind Dillon in the regular-season standings can point their way into the field.

16. Kevin Harvick: 2,002 points
Qualified by: Points
 (spot clinched)
Stage wins: 0

Quick hit: Harvick clinched a playoff berth with his 14th-place run at Michigan. His 104-point buffer on the cutline cannot be caught at Daytona, therefore he is locked in. This marks Harvick's eighth playoff appearance since the current format was installed in 2014.

15. Tyler Reddick: 2,003 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Reddick didn't have the best points day at Michigan, snagging just three stage points in Stage 2. He then finished 29th, resulting in just 11 points overall. His advantage on teammate Austin Dillon went from 28 to 25 points. Reddick can clinch a spot at Daytona if he scores 31 points.

14. Aric Almirola: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (New Hampshire)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Almirola is bound for his fourth straight postseason trip despite sitting 23rd in the regular-season point standings. His win at New Hampshire punched his ticket, because a 17th-place result and 20-point day at Michigan surely wouldn't have helped his stance.

13. Michael McDowell: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: McDowell returns to the site of his sole win of 2021 on Saturday -- Daytona. That may provide a confidence boost heading into the postseason. McDowell's 20th-place result at Michigan just added to his six-race streak of finishes 20th or worse.

12. Christopher Bell: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (Daytona Road Course)

Stage wins: 0

Quick hit: Bell finished 13th at Michigan. He also returns to the site of his first career win -- Daytona -- but this time, the series will be racing on the classic oval rather than the road course, which he won on. Still, Bell finished 16th in the Daytona 500.

11. Kurt Busch: 2,008 points
Qualified by: Win (Atlanta-2)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Busch notched his second consecutive top-10 finish at Michigan and his first top-five result since his win at Atlanta. He also finished within the top 10 in Stage 1, but eighth in a stage doesn't earn a driver any playoff points.

10. Brad Keselowski: 2,008 points
Qualified by: Win (Talladega)

Stage wins: 2

Quick hit: Keselowski's goal of winning at Michigan has to wait yet another year. He finished ninth after a brush-up with Austin Dillon that sidelined the playoff hopeful. Keselowski was 10th and seventh in the two stages.

9. Joey Logano: 2,012 points
Qualified by: Win (Bristol dirt)

Stage wins: 4
Quick hit: Because teammate Ryan Blaney won at Michigan, Logano loses a spot in the provisional playoff field, going from eighth to ninth as Blaney moves up from ninth to fifth. Logano finished 33rd at Michigan -- his third consecutive finish outside the top 20, his second outside the top 30.

8. Denny Hamlin: 2,015 points
Qualified by: Points (spot clinched)
Stage wins: 5
Quick hit: Hamlin placed fourth and fifth in Stages 1 and 2, respectively, and then finished fifth overall at Michigan. That led to a 45-point day, which is normally good, but Kyle Larson had a 51-point day. Hamlin has one more race to steal the regular-season title back from Larson, though Hamlin is 28 points down.

7. William Byron: 2,015 points
Qualified by: Win (Miami)

Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Byron finished second at Michigan, also placing fifth and ninth in the stages. He had a 43-point day, which puts him just five points behind Kyle Busch in the regular-season point standings.

6. Alex Bowman: 2,015 points
Qualified by: Wins (Richmond, Dover and Pocono)

Stage wins: 0

Quick hit: Bowman placed 16th at Michigan and gained no stage points. The result was his third finish in a row outside the top 15.

5. Ryan Blaney: 2,018 points
Qualified by: Wins (Atlanta, Michigan)

Stage wins: 4

Quick hit: Blaney doubled down on the wins Sunday, taking his second checkered flag of 2021 at Michigan. That moves him from ninth in the provisional playoff field to fifth. The added bonus points could very well keep his title chances alive longer in the postseason.

4. Chase Elliott: 2,018 points
Qualified by: Wins (Circuit of The Americas, Road America)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: Elliott won Stage 1 at Michigan to nab a playoff point despite finishing eighth overall. He was fourth in Stage 2. Overall, he had a 46-point day.

3. Kyle Busch: 2,023 points
Qualified by: Wins (Kansas and Pocono-2)
Stage wins: 5

Quick hit: Busch won Stage 2 at Michigan, adding a playoff point to his total. He was ninth in Stage 1 and seventh at the checkered flag. That left him with a 42-point day overall.

2. Martin Truex Jr.: 2,025 points
Qualified by: Wins (Phoenix, Martinsville and Darlington)

Stage wins: 5
Quick hit: Ryan Blaney is right on Truex's tail in the regular-season point standings. Truex has just two points on Blaney for sixth. While Blaney won at Michigan, Truex finished 10th.

1. Kyle Larson: 2,052 points
Qualified by: Wins (Las Vegas, Charlotte, Sonoma, Nashville and Watkins Glen)/Projected regular-season champion
Stage wins: 12

Quick hit: Larson is atop the regular-season standings with a 28-point advantage on Denny Hamlin. If Larson keeps that top spot comes checkered flag Saturday, he would score the additional 15 playoff points that come with that position. He essentially would carry a full race more of points into the Round of 16 (and 12 and 8 should he advance) than the back half of the playoff field.